Tuesday, June 30, 2020

Warning Line Crossed - 2

Yesterday, we clearly indicated that a warning line for a downward ((i)), ((ii)), (i), (ii) had been crossed, invalidating the second (i), (ii). (See yesterday's S&P500 cash chart). Today saw additional gains.

On the daily chart, below, these overall factors can be cited. There is still a declining tops line in place from the June high.

ES Futures - Daily - Declining Tops

Although there are still declining tops, the swing line turned neutral - as best I can tell - with a lower low but a higher high. Price, meanwhile traveled back to the 18-day SMA, or "the line in the sand" at the 3,100 level, where the "battle is being fought", and then fell off a bit.

There are two clear down fractals, and two clear up fractals - breaking any of those might help define things a bit. The daily slow stochastic is dead sideways.

As we said before, the Minor B wave can take almost any corrective form: zigzag, multiple zigzag, flat, combination or triangle. Is it 'possible' this is a triangle? It certainly is possible, but there must be many more overlaps of A for that to occur properly.

Yes, it's difficult to deal with a sideways market. Today is the last day of the month and of the quarter. Tomorrow may see the usual inflows from mutual funds, 401k's, pension plans, company bonuses and dividend roll-overs. We'll see.

Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe

16 comments:

  1. Joe, thanks for the detailed analysis and the discipline. Is it possible that we are doing a running triangle here?

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    1. Welcome SVS .. pls re-read the third paragraph under the chart.

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  2. Is it possible that this is in the fifth wave of an ending diagonal to finish the B wave?

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    1. Hi Steven, possible, but insufficient waves at this time.

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  3. Your comment is confusing; c wave down?

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  4. Please use 'reply' when responding to a thread, so they are kept together for other readers.

    I have only said it is not ((i)), ((ii)), (i), (ii). Please do not misunderstand, the market has 'not' ruled out ((i)), ((ii)) - meaning minute-i and minute-ii.

    TJ

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  5. Well, there's the first of the month money.

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  6. With about 170 candles on the chart, there is a 1.618 wave, and there is a first divergence on the EWO.

    https://invst.ly/rb71e

    TJ

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    1. ..and all of price is currently above a O - 2 line.

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  7. Seeing similar thing on NQ. Higher prices with divergence and now some good size down move.

    https://imgur.com/brcUuom

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    1. Slight overlap of 4 to 1 on lower time frame.

      https://imgur.com/dafOgtK

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  8. The EWO has now crossed the zero line lower.

    https://invst.ly/rb7tx

    TJ

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    1. ..there's a higher high; could be v or (b) of iv

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  9. Reminder: FED Meeting minutes at the top of the hour.

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  10. looks like an ending diagonal on SPX ending now or very soon.

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    1. Wow! The fourth made it below one by a single point!

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