Commensurate with the chart shown last night of one of the most historic lows in the put-call ratio, stocks made a cash gap lower to likely start a pullback of some kind. I said for a Minor C wave up, a fourth wave lower and a fifth wave up were needed. There is no guarantee these will occur.
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| ES Futures - 4 Hr - Pullback |
With 108 candles now on the chart, and on further inspection of this wave - given where the 0 - 2 trend line is located, I wonder if Mr. Market slipped us a leading diagonal that no one (including me until now) caught hold of ? And I try to pay attention to these things. See the brown lines slanting upwards.
So, if we are making a fourth wave, prices 'could' go over the top again. The key is to see whether a channel count is more-or-less respected for the wave overall, and if the Elliott Wave Oscillator gets back down near the zero line to be followed by an additional wave higher.
If the whole thing breaks down, then the odds build of only a three-wave move up.
Have a good start to the day.
TraderJoe
Sweet!
ReplyDeleteI notice that both AAPL and AMZN have completed or nearly so a multi year expanding triangle 5th wave up. We shall see if this supercycle degree exhaustion pattern completes today or in a day or two. Divergences and historic optimism seem to rule the day. Covid-19 3rd wave is starting. IMHO
ReplyDeleteWith this new higher high on the ES 5-min, a 3-3-3-3-3 expanding diagonal may be counted that meets all time and price parameters.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/r2m-u
TJ
..now five-waves down after diagonal .. monitor for retrace
Deletehttps://invst.ly/r2nhx
TJ
Could be seeing things wrong, but ((2)) looks like it could 5 waves?
Delete..because wave b is the largest correction in price & time, counting it any other way results in degree violations .. in other words the sub-waves are larger than any other entire corrective waves in the down sequence.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/R2zDLzmE/
Please try to do these investigations before raising these questions, especially if you are not sure .. they do take up my time, which is useful for other things.
TJ
I saw (4) as exp flat, with c an exp diagonal (your (ABC)). It seemed to measure on my data source. Could certainly be wrong.
DeleteThanks
..but then what do you do with the three-waves up to ((1))?
DeleteDefinitely looking a three down....
ReplyDeleteET your chart with the potential leading diagonal has circle 4 within the diagonal longer in price than ii/b (in fact it is the biggest price correction on the chart). I assume degree adherence is not applicable where a leading diagonal is involved.
ReplyDeleteThe diagonal adheres to degree labeling. The subwaves black a,b,c of ((4)) are each shorter than all of ((2)), the higher degree wave.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/r2og7
TJ
Now a possible expanded flat to deepen the correction. The first movement down was in three-waves.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/r2oen
TJ
..now below ((A)) of the the flat; 'minimum flat expectation' met; could go longer.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/r2ojl
TJ
..here's where things stand near as the cash closes.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/r2oml
TJ
Right on schedule...!
ReplyDeleteHopefully starting a 4 of w3
ReplyDeleteI read some research on June expirations for equities. Not pretty, many many years get crashy after June Fed meetings. I can see 25 points coming off IWM with a few days.
ReplyDeleteAppreciate the info..
Deletenq now has hit 10000 and has 2 closes above the trendline across tops
ReplyDeletenq has entered the upside acceleration phase
11000 could now be seen quickly
Today's diagonal, and the flat following, each called in real time have resulted in a higher high wave - proving out 1) the pattern was a diagonal, and 2) it was a leading diagonal as it was followed by higher highs.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/r2rm6
Readers should also note that the most recent up wave legitimately reached the 90% level. This could either be the "B" wave of a larger flat, or the start of a larger impulse.
TJ
Looks like an H&S top. Broke neckline and retest in progress.
ReplyDeleteVIX move down on final wave up should be sharp with divergence at new highs...I think 3260 should do it....
ReplyDeleteGiven the current location of the Elliott Wave Oscillator (EWO), and number of candles this wave might take several hours to resolve yet. It is 'possible' for a fourth wave to go over the top again or triangle.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/r330k
TJ
Reminder - the U.S. Federal Reserve decision on interest rates and news conference begin at 14:00 EDT.
ReplyDeleteHere is an intraday screen with the nearest fractals, and a possible divergence on the slow stochastic.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/qXV1rH7Z/
The R1 daily pivot is very near the high.
TJ
That might even be 4 of iii. No high yet. 3300? Next eclipse is Sunday 21st.
ReplyDelete3177 wave count stop. Anyone counting TSLA?
ReplyDeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDelete