Friday, June 5, 2020

What to do when not Counting Waves - 2

Here is the Intra-day screen which follows from the post below, at the time of the futures settlement. This follows from the post below - which was done before the cash market opened.

ES Futures - 30 Minutes - End Of Session

As you can see, after six consecutive candles upward, the odds were just too low of more consecutive candles closing outside of the Bollinger Bands. During two portions of the overnight session the slow stochastic was fully embedded. After candles started trading inside of  the bands, the intraday slow stochastic lost it's embedded status and towards the end of the session price and the 18-SMA tried to come together. On the daily chart, price broke through the upper daily band at 3,192 and settled below it at 3,187, with a half-hour left to the end of the electronic session yet.

Maybe this weekend there will be more.

>> This morning -

We had a similar set-up going into the overnight session last night. (Refer to this POST for more detail.) There were two clean fractal breaks higher, shown as ^ , with price over the intraday 18-SMA (ES 30-min) AND while daily price was over the 18-day SMA. This morning's employment report rocketed the futures higher, up over the intraday Bollinger Band.

ES Futures - 30 Min - Employment Report

It is interesting that the wave ((2)) shown never will even show up in the cash market. Obviously, just being over the 18-day SMA is not a 'sole criterion' for, then, prices, once over the 18-day, would never move under it. I do have a 'big' question over whether such a move will be a fifth wave in it's entirety or form a larger ending pattern like a triangle or diagonal in the cash market session.

It is now time to watch the upper 18-day Bollinger Band, as well, and see what the cash session brings.

Have a good start to the day.
TraderJoe

29 comments:

  1. This kind of overwhelmingly bullish data release is exactly what is needed to squeeze the remaining shorts and give us the top in ES.

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  2. First eclipse around 3:12pm today

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  3. Today's DAILY upper Bollinger Band is around 3,185 - 87. Again, a paraphrase of Ira's guidelines says "no 'new' longs" over that level, although one might decide to let profits run. On the first hit of the upper daily Bollinger Band, this is where the Smart Money is usually taking some profits. (Again, this is not trading or investment advice - just a paraphrase of what a broker tells the public.)

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  4. It was with a certain fear and trepidation I followed my round number rule book...and YOWZA! I am not letting these profits "run"anywhere...Thank You!
    Lol!
    But seriously, we really stretched to the upside...
    Looking forward to new chart after new NQ ATH...

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  5. Interesting to see what the put/call ratio is tonight.

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  6. As of 11 AM, there are 5 30-min candles closing over the upper intraday Bollinger Band. Odds approaching 1% or less of staying outside of the bands. The upper daily Bollinger Band has now been tagged, too.

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    Replies
    1. Here's an intraday chart. Six 30-min candles, so far, have closed outside of the upper band. Odds 0 - 1% of the time, the next candle will. The odds are 'not zero'. They are very, very low.

      https://invst.ly/r16e9

      TJ

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    2. Agree, it's probably done, with small chance that it's now 4 from about 10.35am.

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  7. At this pace, the S&P 500 should be at a new all time high by next Tuesday. :)

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  8. ET do you see a 90% retrace for a flat wave?

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  9. ..as of noon, there is the first close inside of the band. They "pinned" the market at 3,200 for the 'noon news' on Wall Street. There is nothing inherently bearish in the chart, except that the Smart Money may have been coming out, against and over that upper daily Bollinger Band.

    https://invst.ly/r16ke

    And, if that truly is an extended fifth wave x5, they usually don't end well. The question is whether it is inside of a larger wave. That is pending analysis tonight.

    TJ

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  10. Tj few months back you had the previous high as expanded B as one of the options. What made you change your mind. Thks

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  11. In terms of price, does anyone see a valid expanding diag. for RUT on daily?
    Thanks

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  12. Remarkable consistency in bull flags/pennants reaching targets.
    The current one targets 3275.00!
    Another close above 3200.00 will get my attention! Lol!

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  13. Looking at the main components of this rally on ES from 23 March they read as follows:

    2174.00 to 2635.75 (+461.75 pts)
    2635.75 to 2424.75 (-211.00 pts)
    2424.75 to 2965.00 (+540.25 pts)
    2965.00 to 2760.25 (-204.75 pts)
    2760.25 to 3210.50 (+450.25 pts)

    So we've had 3 rallies all of similar proportion. We've also had 2 pullbacks of similar proportion. We have no fibonacci relationships. We cannot have an "A wave" completing at 2965.00 because the pullback that followed was shorter in points than the previous pullback. We cannot have an "A wave" at the previous pullback at 2635.75 because the pullback from 2965.00 was longer in time (but shorter in price). An impulse count also has question marks notably wave 3 violation of the 0-2 line.

    So what are we left with ... w-x-y-x-z?

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    Replies
    1. It isn't that black and white. The A leg was made up of five waves so you're comparing apples to oranges.

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  14. Hmmm. A chart confirming your comment at 11:50am not posted. Thought it might help to make your point. Interesting that it wasnt posted.

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  15. Yes, I see this too, (ES & SPX 5-min) .. let's see if it holds.

    https://invst.ly/r18r4

    TJ

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    Replies
    1. wowie .. invalidated a triangle by a 'tick'.

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    2. ..possible dzz. .not sure of degree yet. Quite long in time.

      https://invst.ly/r18-b

      TJ

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    3. How about starting a LD down?

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  16. A chart at the futures settlement was added to the top of the post.

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  17. Replies
    1. ..yes, it seems it contained the rally today.

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  18. A new post has been started for the next day.

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