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| ES Futures - Weekly - Potential Diagonal |
The major reason for liking this alternative is that the market sketched out two rather clear upper and lower trend lines shown. And the first retrace for Minor 2 is over 50%. Both the time and price length relationships are in the proper order: Wave 5 is < wave 3 < wave 1, and wave 4 < wave 2, and overlaps wave 1. Price would now be at the extended apex of the diagonal, which is often a turning point, and five waves up can be counted for the minute ((c)) wave of 5.
Price would now be in the throw-over of the diagonal, looking very much like it had "popped the cork" on a triangle or diagonal structure.
Again, there are some things not to like about this count, including a possible degree violation for Minor wave 2 and a slight truncation of the zigzag in wave 4. However, according to MotiveWave, no rules are broken in the count, and one would expect a fairly sharp reaction off of the high soon.
As far as I can tell, if you make the current high wave 3 of a larger diagonal it tends to remove those trend lines the market has already drawn. Again, as with any potential count, I'd like to see confirmation - beginning with first a daily reversal.
Have an excellent rest of the day.
TraderJoe
Price would now be in the throw-over of the diagonal, looking very much like it had "popped the cork" on a triangle or diagonal structure.
Again, there are some things not to like about this count, including a possible degree violation for Minor wave 2 and a slight truncation of the zigzag in wave 4. However, according to MotiveWave, no rules are broken in the count, and one would expect a fairly sharp reaction off of the high soon.
As far as I can tell, if you make the current high wave 3 of a larger diagonal it tends to remove those trend lines the market has already drawn. Again, as with any potential count, I'd like to see confirmation - beginning with first a daily reversal.
Have an excellent rest of the day.
TraderJoe
Thank you. This is excellent.
ReplyDeleteI have one more question. You state that you would expect a sharp reaction off the high. Is it possible for the overthrow of an ED, in this case, the C wave, to form an ending diagonal, or would this break rules?
the fifth wave of C could form an ending diagonal, or all of C in this case could form an ending diagonal. And a diagonal 'may' have formed at today's high (at least in the futures).
DeleteWhat level would the terminus of the ED be?
DeleteThat would be a most atypical specie of that particular animal.
ReplyDeleteDecisive gap fill OR new ATH on deck...if former 3300 goes...
ReplyDeleteCL daily below the 18 and 100 ma, appears embedded, and hasn't yet touched the lower bb: https://invst.ly/pliwn
ReplyDeleteCash is now down through a 78.6% retrace.
ReplyDelete..the last gap up is filled.
DeleteSame drill .. different day. Keep an eye on the overnight. Right now there is only near-equality, and the lower border of the channel has not been breached to the down side.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/pljo3
The 'possibility' of a triangle or slightly larger diagonal still exists.
TJ
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2020-01-22_7-19-42.jpg?itok=3pvOBCsa
ReplyDeleteGetting extremely one sided.
Based on weekly fibonacci price symmetry pattern observed in the past, (from Feb 08, 2018 to Sep 21, 2018) we had 32 weeks rally and (from June 03, 2018 to present) we have 32 weeks so we have an important time resistance now. From Dec 24 2018 low to May 01 2019, we have around 600 points in sp500 and from 31 May low to present , we have around 600 points. Both price and time symmetry is pointing to an important resistance at 3336. It is very interesting to observe how price symmetry and time symmetry in the past have worked so well both in individual stocks and index charts. It is possible to blow past towards 3396 but based on important weekly chart, we have resistance working well so far. May be earnings will still help point up until Feb 7,14. so watching it carefully
ReplyDelete3336 fits with my ending diagonal upper limit of 3346 - see post below
DeletePossible ending diagonal for 5th wave - currently in 4th wave - thoughts?
ReplyDeletehourly
https://invst.ly/plk6k
15 Min
https://invst.ly/plk6t
invalidation points are 3346 and 3307
Delete4 hourly chart also:
Deletehttps://invst.ly/plkem
Hi Rusty, can you post your daily as well? Thanks.
DeleteIt has lost its wedge shape.
DeleteI show a 4 longer than 2 price violation.
DeleteTJ all sbwaves ( i, iii, v) of ((a)) of 1 is bigger than ((c)), not possible in zigzag ?!
ReplyDeleteJoe - do you agree it doesn't take much imagination to get the above posted chart to a very bullish count. Especially if we are not applying "strict" wave degree principles (using waves (1) to (4) from 2008 and not looking at how 1 and 2 cause violations).
ReplyDeleteThe above pattern was another of many recent examples of a potentially bearish pattern being negated by brute force. Price returned to test top of wedge and confirm breakout upwards. Measured target is around 3400.00
ReplyDeleteGold 1 hour triangle idea.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/mWY71jM
Best I can come up with on ES.
Deletehttps://imgur.com/J8HWZRm
@BBR .. yes, we are seeing the 'possibility' of a larger diagonal top for the C wave in the ES the same. But, it still 'should' mean a 62% retrace.
DeleteYour ending diagonal "to end the cycle" is crazy talk. A new bull market began in January, 2019. Bull markets run about 2.5 years. They end after quite a bit of tightening by the Fed. Currently, interest rates are low, manufacturing is in a slow spot due to the trade wars and the disaster called Boeing. The Fed embarked on QE4 in September. They are pumping the Fed Govt's trillion dollar a year budget deficit into the next stock market bubble, cf. Apple Inc.
ReplyDeleteYour earlier idea about a correction in Feb, then a run to another high in April-May makes a lot more sense. Sub-wave #4 of the current wave (bull market wave #3, the longest and strongest), followed by sub-wave #5.
The decline prior to Jan 2019 hardly qualified as a bear market...
ReplyDeleteIt was shorter than the 2015-16 bear. That's because the fundamentals have been improving as we have pulled away from the Great Recession. More jobs, many more people working, etc.
DeleteBear market is likely when the % of stocks on the NAZ above their 50d mov avg is less than 15%. Bear market is usually an A-B-C Elliott wave affair. The 'B' wave of the 2018 bear market was short, weak and confusing.
Have a look at: http://schrts.co/jwMhTehd
Looks like a 2.618 wave, lower, probably a wave three, iii.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/plxr0
TJ
TJ
DeleteThink the high is in....so the wave 3 count would fit.
The 17th was a Gann Square date and has remained the closing high.
My shorter term algos are in sell mode (1, 2 & 4 hr ) SPX below 3260 and the daily will go sell. If and or when that happens....it will drop nicely.
Diagonals retrace (as you know) a large portion of the diagonal maybe 2350 to 2500 ?
Gold Triangle complete.
ReplyDeleteSo, there are now five waves up off the low. Sometimes 2.618 waves are inside of diagonals, so we must be patient.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/plywb
TJ
How do we know at the time (if possible) that your a and b of the flat arent actually b and c of a diagonal 1st wave? (degree notation not intended).
DeleteThanks
@Grey .. because there seems to be a countable "five-waves-up" ((C)) wave that ends the correction. That can only happen in a zigzag or a flat.
DeleteDirectional battle today will be determined by VIX close. A close above 15 will affect leveraged longs. A close below opens the door for closure of both open upside gaps...
ReplyDeleteHere's an update.. it the low holds, it's a deep b wave.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/plzzw
TJ
Maybe in the bigger picture the iii/c is a larger A
Deletewith the B up around @ 3316
Could be a triangle....
DeleteHere's an update. Price is above the EMA-34, and the EWO is above zero. The fourth wave, if it turns into that, is already longer-in-time, than wave ii, at more than 29 candles.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/pl-xd
If the C wave wants it could develop into a) a diagonal to waste more time, or b) an extended fifth wave of C to consume more price. None of these latter things 'have' to happen. Watch for downward overlap.
TJ
..now up and over the a wave
DeleteThat's about the limit for an impulse ivth wave based on the EWO.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/pm132
TJ
I think the reversal is dead, this iv is way too big it is from the same degree as the decline before that most likely b from a bigger zig-zag. I see this - https://invst.ly/pm0r0
ReplyDeleteTwo legs higher with the same size and 0,38 retracement in the middle and c/y with w1 extended:)
Do not forget cycles the indexes are heading for important high - one more high next week will be at week 39 for the 40 week cycle high and month 54 for the 54 month cycle high aka 4 year cycle. Those who know something about Hurst cycles know what this means.
Pattern and time can not fit better:)
Still a retrace of 5 down off the top in ES and NQ.
ReplyDelete@C .. don't think those are five-waves down in the ES. The middle section consumes 'too much time', and may just be a 'b' wave.
DeleteThe ES futures have upwardly overlapped, making the cash count as a, b, c. If there is further down movement in cash, it would likely come in the form of a diagonal. I said earlier that the 2.618 downward relationship is sometimes found in diagonals and triangles.
ReplyDeleteseems like an overlap with a b (expanded flat) wave of 2 . if it is indeed b.. would it still be considered overlap. thks
DeleteCash now has the upward overlap.
Delete..if upward wave is 'c', it is 1.618 x 'a', and that is why I said there could be an extended fifth within 'c'.
DeleteAnd, now the shoe is on the other foot .. what is good for the goose, is good for the gander.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/pm21w
TJ
Not good for the gander if short, the gander's goose could be cooked.
Deletethanks, lets see if this is an LD in works or new a high coming
Delete@scout .. possibly true, but maybe the gander is not leveraged. Or maybe the gander sits out the overnight .. or maybe the gander sits on the gander side-lines until there is some clarity. I assume there is more than one species of gander. Maybe there is even a 'patient' species.
DeleteTJ
Bunch of euro data out tomorrow. Maybe a catylst
ReplyDeleteThe only thing that can be said with any certainty......
ReplyDeleteis today was a lower high and lower low..
The question is, does anyone dispute the manner in which the intra-waves were counted? In other words .. do we all agree there is a conclusive 'three-down' in cash, followed by a 'three-up' (so far .. that is, with the waves we can see and measure)?
ReplyDeleteAre we saying that Elliott analysts 'can' count alike - at least in some part?
TJ
I haven't had the chance to look very carefully, but is there a way to count 5 down with a truncated 5th, and three waves up?
DeleteSee tomorrow's post - already up - and truncations just do not happen this early in down waves.
Delete