This is the second post this weekend. If you have not seen the first one, yet, you may wish to review it now.
Many readers of this blog followed the last time relationship we posted in that 2018 was a Fibonacci 89 years from 1929 since (1929 + 89 = 2018). The Fibonacci number 89 is the next number following 55 in the sequence 1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55,89... and is calculated by adding 34 + 55 = 89. The largest correction in the bull market to that point in time occurred in October of 2018. This was a top-to-top relationship, as 1929 was a top, and 2018 was too.
Another Fibonacci time relationship may exist in the chart below. I have not seen this elsewhere and know of no-one else who has made us aware of it.
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| ES Futures - Monthly - Fibonacci Time |
This relationship would also be a top-to-top relationship, as well, since 2007 was a very significant market top. The question now is, "do we, in fact, have the famous 'too-far-too-fast' signature of a contracting ending diagonal" - which up to this point in time has maintained it's length relationships. If so, then the Intermediate fifth wave (5) would clearly be the extended wave in the sequence, as it is longer in points than wave Intermediate (3) in this form. And this extended fifth wave would be contained within what is, itself, the extended fifth wave of cycle V.
This is not too make too much of one significant lower day. Many further price confirmations are needed. Still, fore-warned is fore-armed. The information is what the information is. The question is whether it will amount to a top, a near top, or even "the" top.
Another reason for liking this form of the end of the Cycle is that the NQ futures have more than surpassed a (B) = 1.618 x (A) relationship. That may not be fatal for an Intermediate (B) wave count, but it does pose a challenge to it. The ES futures have only marginally nicked slightly over the same point.
So, we will be cautious, but we will also be curious. We will inquire. We will ask the market questions and see what answers it helps provide.
Have an excellent rest of the weekend.
TraderJoe
Interesting! Thanks for the observations.
ReplyDeleteOne question regarding the Risk Off chart:
I believe you mentioned we would need to overlap ((a)) and trade below ((b)) to "get out of this up wave. My question is this:
If our down move just beginning becomes greater in price and time than any prior from the beginning Oct low (I believe it would be the ((b)) move down), would that not suggest the up move has completed as the up move is deemed to be an ((abc))? If not, what would be the significance of this occurring?
Thanks!
So, if that occurred it would be Step 1 in a confirmation. It would 'likely' represent the 'degree change' provided some fourth wave triangle doesn't pop its head up in here. There are other larger retrace waves on the chart, and taking out the low of the diagonal Minor wave 4 would be Step 2 in the confirmation, and then exceeding the March - April low would be Step 3.
DeleteIt's a lot to ask. Hope it helps.
Joe the last high of Sep 1, 2000 before the market turned down hard is 233 months to Feb 1, 2020.
ReplyDeleteNice! And the May 2015 top, separates the Fibonacci 13-year period into the Golden Section with a Fibonacci 8 years from 2007 - 2015, and a Fibo 5 years from 2015 to 2020.
DeleteYou have twice mentioned Cycle V. What does your Supercycle look like? I was thinking 2009 was end of SC4.
ReplyDeleteLet's see if we can end a Cycle first.
DeleteI saved this link a while ago, a fib time countdown from 1932, very interesting:
ReplyDeletehttp://planetforecaster.blogspot.com/2013/11/fibonacci-countdown-to-2020.html?m=1
yeah .. notice how wrong that last "5" is on the stockchart.
DeleteHey, many thanks, very interesting,
Deletebut wouldnt it be better to place the start of the cycle to 1932, when obvously the big big wave, lasting until nowadays, started?
1932 start of current wave in Dow
1932+34=1966 cycle until wave 3 ended
1932+55=1987 this point is uncertaim, because I see start of wave 5 in 1984 already
1932+89=2021 still some months to go...
Greetings from Germany
Hi Sepp .. I made no comments on when the cycle started. I only referred to an end of the cycle. The 'top-to-top' time relationship does not imply the last cycle started at the prior top or prior bottom. Cheers.
DeleteThe Financial indexes all finished a cycle degree B wave that is 11 years long. The last "C" of the "B" was extremely weak which foretells great coming weakness with the ensuing "C" wave down. Both the JNK and BKX have completed impulse down H&S patterns. The Bank shareholders are liquidating as a 2007 type credit crisis is on the way. The Oils and the Banks are leading the way down.
ReplyDeleteI would just say, "JNK and BKX have impulse patterns down which 'might start' H&S patterns". They certainly have not completed H&S patterns. Otherwise the comments about the financials leading seem sound.
DeleteThanks TJ
DeleteTraderJoe, are you familiar with time relationships based on the 'Pi' constant explored by Martin Armstrong? He has used total calendar days / 3.142 as the basis for a business cycle with quite interesting results in alignments of both price and events. We completed a study that measures the time elapsed between the 10/3/2018 top and 1/18/2020 with the result equaling 150 (471 calendar days/pi). It's the round number '150' that is important here as alignments do often hit a round number in days/Pi. At a larger time frame the date 1/18/20 aligns with the multi year (8.6) business cycle. '8.6' happens to be days/Pi=1000. We also noted that Pi relates to the geometry of a swinging pendulum in the way of tying some logic theory to the process. Having said all that- we are a little concerned about how clean everything seems to be with alignments and more than a few blogs seeing the same topping process so we are looking at alternate views especially as Neely sees higher ultimate targets. Thanks
ReplyDeleteCould your (3) be 1 of three?
ReplyDeleteNvermind. First target 3382. Possible 3420. Do these numbers fit any wave count fibs? Got these from someone who got famous from forseeing priceline to the dollar.
ReplyDeleteThe failure of this initial wave down to take multiple S/R levels suggests to me (based on my own theory if current market price action), that we DO NOT yet have a final top...I could of course be proven wrong....
ReplyDeleteET, I do like that every wave in the weekly diagonal count interacted with the 34.
ReplyDeleteJoe
ReplyDeleteHow do waves (1) and (2) set wave degree rules for subwaves of (5). This should be simple to explain. Thanks.
A further example of degree labeling appears in my comment of 08:13, below.
DeleteJust an observation:
ReplyDeleteOn a monthly chart of SPX, measure from peak in Mar '00 to Oct '07 is 91 bars. From there to our current month bar is 147 bars. 147/91 = 1.61538. Interesting.
So many of these ultimate time windows and ratios have been posted over the last couple months, eventually one will be correct! Not a jab at you, just how these things usually work out.
Deletesure looks like a 3rd wave....SPX futures
ReplyDeleteI just don't see this being corrective,but a top. The JNK completed a cycle B wave and now in a cycle C wave down. Might be wrong,but if right...no place to hide.
DeleteGold from 1551.3 e wave looks like 1,2,i,ii, now in iii.
ReplyDeleteIf we get overlap downward this may the high tonight may be a b of a larger triangle the with the retrace tonight in the between .618 and .786
DeleteHere are both. https://imgur.com/nFCoj5n
DeleteWith the overlap in the overnight and length of this sideways move I believe the 4hr triangle moves to the top of the list.
DeleteAre we headed to sub 26 on ET's /CL diagonal?
ReplyDeleteJoe, you didnt label wave 4 but I assume from your chart it's the low in early 2016. If looking at degree labeling wouldnt the correction in 2018/19 which was like 20% be of higher degree than the correction 2015/16 which was around 15%? Or does that not matter in degree labeling. And where can I read about degree labeling and criteria for it. Thanks Sam
ReplyDeleteHi Sam. Wave (4) was labeled in 2016, but got covered up by the measurement ruler. I have already covered the concern about the 2018 correction. It 'might' be a Minor 2, as it is shorter than the longest Intermediate wave - Intermediate (C) of 2009. But, no shorter than the one's immediately preceding it.
DeleteAnother example of degree labeling is in my comment at 08:13, below.
TJ
From what I can see, there are presently five-waves-down in the overnight futures in about 50 - 51 bars. The second wave up ((2)) got cut-off at the knees by weekend news of increased coronoavirus spread. So, there is presently ((5)) < ((3)) < ((1)) in the impulse. Wave x((1)) is the extended wave, and wave ((2)) is less than the 38.2% retrace which is expected when the first wave is the extended wave.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/pnds1
Wave ((4)) is longer in time than wave ((2)), but notice how it respects degree labeling. Wave a of ((4)) is no longer in price or time than ((2)), but it is the b wave - a downward wave - that takes all of the time within wave ((4)). This wave can be as long as the longest prior downward wave - which is wave ((1)) in this case. And wave b of ((4)) is shorter in time than wave ((1)) is in time.
Then wave c of ((4)) also respects wave ((2))'s limits, and is not longer in price than wave ((2))'s max height.
TJ
Hi Joe,
ReplyDeleteI was wondering where do we stand in regards to your medium term forecast up to May that you posted on January 10? Or are we already at ((B))? Or am I being impatient and asking you too soon? lol Thanks!
Hi Luc. One way to see a complete top was in Friday's post. Another is in this post. I will update the third way - which provides more of a divergence with the a/d line - the medium term forecast - after the close today. Check back.
DeleteThanks,
TJ
Can anyone else verify or provide better data?
ReplyDeleteNYSE Adv/Dec = 153 / 1758 or 1 : 11.5 which might be a 'kick-off'.
Thanks, TJ
2436 to 532 schwab
ReplyDeletePhil where are you hanging around with oew gone
DeleteI will not allow links to Wordpress sites, as they have demonstrated to be hackable. I have recent experience with same. Please do not post.
Deletejack
Deletego to my blog and you can see lunkers site address there
TJ
DeletePhil-lis is poison. She clogged up Tony Calderos site to the point they shut down. Hes about to do the same to lunkers site which already has shut down once. Shes a short term scalper who publishes things after the fact and posts 25 times a day, mostly in one sentence and then when another thought leaves the brain there is another one sentence post. This poster is not happy unless they cover your site with hundreds of posts. She has his own site....he should go there.
Another new low today would not be a total surprise. We definitely had one flat (which 'may' not be done), and it may only be one part of a larger flat to start a deeper correction.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/pngv8
TJ
Is it possible that it is an ED instead of a flat?
DeleteJust an observation. The (B) wave of the flat on a 5min chart looks suspiciously like an impulsive move down (to me at least). Sharp w2, and flat for w4, no overlap. What am I missing?
DeleteThanks!
From the December 2018 low (fib. 13 months to Jan. 2020), if ET's ending diagonal above is correct, it should give back everything in less time than 13 mos.?
ReplyDeletePrevious comment is assuming the diagonal ends this month.
ReplyDelete18 ma on daily S&P 500 futures offered no support. Next support at the lower bb. https://invst.ly/pnjsr
ReplyDeleteLooks like triangle 4 of 1 or A down...new lows ahead likely...
ReplyDeleteVix wedge breakout today, and back-tested somewhat. Target is c. 56, but there's a fib at 54.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/NyRdlXAI/
If you get a 90% wave down, in the after-hours, or if there is a new lower low (within limits), as far as I can tell - to agree with degree labeling - it will count like this.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/pnk8-
TJ
A new post has been started for the next day.
ReplyDelete