Following on yesterday's post, we have been trying to count the minuet (v)th wave higher of the minute ((a)) wave. Here is the hourly cash S&P500. We may be getting very, very close as this morning's up gap 'may' be an exhaustion gap and there is critical overlap on the chart.
 |
| SP500 Cash Index - Hourly - Diagonal |
Is the diagonal right in front of our eyes? Is that an exhaustion gap for wave v of (v) of ((a))? All of the price and time signatures would be correct in this form, and there is currently divergence with the EWO.
Have a good rest of the day.
TraderJoe
Basis cash, I have the 1.618 ext. retrace of A at 3308.2.
ReplyDeleteWaver,
DeleteIt's acting like it.
This is not trading or investment advice - just a 'sample calculation' of risk-reward with a diagonal fifth wave.
ReplyDeleteRisk = 3,331 from 3,308 = 23 points; Reward = 3,210 from 3,308 = 98 points. The ratio of reward-to-risk = 4.3 : 1.
The risk is that the diagonal breaks the upside limit of a wave v of (v).
TJ
Russel index just had a strong breakout with a bollinger band squeeze today. This index should move consistently up for at least several days. There are too many stocks that are working very well for any kind of top right now.
ReplyDeleteI am gonna have my last comment here. While undoubtly TJ is one the best EW counter there but you are biased as for last so many points, you always start with a terminal count then you come up with a count to justify it and subsequently it doesnt work. why dont just count what is in front of you. I wont be commenting anymore so no need to reply.
ReplyDeleteYou guys keep forgetting, we were told in no uncertain terms that the analysis is not about trading, but about wave counting!
Delete(Not that I understand the logic bit the site does belong to TJ)
Is there guidance about how quickly a gap should be filled to be considered an exhaustion gap?
ReplyDeleteIn the after-hours, a contracting diagonal fifth wave was formally invalidated using the 'rules'. Using e-micro futures, it cost me $125 to find that out. Boo hoo.. But I will always be honest and always follow the rules.
ReplyDeleteLike the 666x5 idea. Market has loved the number 666 at many other levels since. Not sure if it just sticks out psychologically, but as a person of faith I pay attention. The monthly apple chart is beyond parabolic lol. Something has to give sooner or later, problem is $125 over and over leads to bankruptcy.
DeleteCB posture remains accommodative.
ReplyDeleteGap higher today came on leveraged buying.
3300 failed to provide even minimal resistance so 3400 now in play.
Markets at extreme levels, but not yet equaled, much less exceeded extreme levels seen in Jan of 2018 and liquidity injections now even more aggressive.
Not trading advice, just items to keep in mind.
BTW, opening gaps are now "bullish" signals....
Does the EWO work correctly with so few bars? I thought it was best to have 120-160 bars on the chart. Wouldn't 30 minute bars work better for this timeframe? Thanks.
ReplyDeleteThis is a chart of SPX measurements. I find the numbers fascinating. Note that I always try to subdivide 3rd waves. I am sure there are degree violations but I don't agree with that idea. I added two proposed targets for what I think will be the final two waves.
ReplyDeletehttps://i.imgur.com/vNEgcTn.png
On a 2hr ES I can make out a running triangle with the thrust out on Wednesday. So we may have a few waves left to put in for just the 1 of a CED.
ReplyDeleteMy understanding is that b waves can be deceptive and fool participants into thinking what appears to be a powerful move is sustainable. Judging by the recent tone of the commenters here would be in keeping with the sentiment signature of a possible b wave imo. If ET's primary count is correct, many are going to be sadly fooled. Time will tell.
ReplyDeleteOf course it is a b wave. Nonetheless, the trend is up...until it's not. Trying to call a top prior to a clear change of trend is the issue. The fools are those who think and act as if this will continue. It is equally fookish to try and short this market without a confirmed change of trend.
DeleteSo, it turns out that 3,336 = 1.618 x (A), also in the ES futures. Today, watch the retrace levels on the 10 AM news to see IF a triangle might be forming for a fourth wave, up. If not and we head lower, then we might be forming a much larger diagonal for v of (v) of ((a)).
ReplyDelete..there is downward overlap sufficient for a 'fourth wave of some type' .. just wondering if it will form a triangle, with the Monday holiday ahead.
DeleteEWO now down below -0 again, with 120 candles on the chart from 9 AM on 15 Jan.
DeleteIf Russell could give back yesterdays gains, it could count as a failed breakout.
DeleteThe most important index to watch for a glimpse into the future is the Transports. The data of freight in the US is quite poor, and it is remarkable how the index appears to be lagging that reality. We do know that price action in the indices is NOT economic data dependent so that is one cautionary note. Having said that, a new high in IYT above 209.42 would issue a DOW Theory bull market confirmation and wreak absolute havoc with quite a few EW counts. I personally have no idea whatsoever if this will happen in an era of CB hegemony, but I do not expect it. A hard reversal in Transports will speak volumes. I am outta here...!
ReplyDeleteHow's that CB hegemony look back in 2009, or in Feb 2018?
DeleteEmperors with no clothes, can you not see that?
Should be possible around noon to move out to the 30-min chart, as there will be 100 candles, as follows. Notice the 'fake out' wedge leading to the third wave.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/pje4o
Still no firm conclusion on a triangle or a flat fourth wave. The fractal breaks will tell us. Two fractals noted.
TJ
There is now another down fractal on the ES 30-min chart.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/pjepf
TJ
There is now a valid lower 'up' fractal on the ES 30-min chart.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/pjfss
TJ
First, green (up) fractal back has been exceeded higher. 'Seems' like a triangle.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/pjgn0
TJ
pop goes the weasel ..
Deletehttps://invst.ly/pjgvp
TJ
Any thoughts on the quick reversal?
DeleteHere's what the chart looks like at the end of the day. What looks like a small gap down is not one using broker quotes.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/pjh3i
The market must be monitored for a retrace of the wave down to see if the high of 3,330.25 sticks. Still impeachment proceedings begin in earnest next Tuesday.
TJ
I am looking at a lot of charts and this rally does not have to end anytime soon. In fact, I think we will go up for months. I don't know how high, but there is no way we are near a top imo.
ReplyDeleteI look at the monthly apple chart, candle completely above the upper BB, and I see a top. I may be wrong, but there has to be at least a small correction coming IMO.
DeleteYes! I agree on some sort of pullback. It will be interesting.
DeleteA new post has been started for the next day.
ReplyDelete