The market today is currently range-bound from the overnight highs. While we are waiting resolution, this chart shows the two most likely paths I can determine for price. If the market does wish to make the 3,300 high, then it could complete a larger hourly diagonal in the following manner.
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| ES Futures - Hourly - Diagonal or Start of (a) down as a Flat |
If the market does make this alternate diagonal, then I will have called the minute ((a)) wave 15 - 30 points too early, and I will stand corrected. This count could agree with a slightly larger fifth wave in cash. If this diagonal pattern instead invalidates, then it is possible we have already started the minuet (a) wave down of the minute ((b)) wave down, as a Flat wave. In that case the wave i location is still the diagonal ending minute ((a)) wave, up.
We'll have to wait and see. Yesterday, the 10-day moving average of the put-to-call ratio took another dip, and is still solidly below 0.60 at 0.52.
Have a good start to the day.
TraderJoe
Joe, Excellent post! As 6Q pointed out in a comment on your last post: Blog readers need to take time to read and patiently study your work, it is loaded with useful information. Thanks, Joe!
ReplyDeleteStocks drop from record highs amid report US will keep China tariffs through 2020 election
ReplyDeleteKeep an eye on things ...
Deletehttps://invst.ly/phzsg
TJ
Can be a valid diagonal with failure on .c of v? Not completed for few points.
DeleteYes, 6Q; because the up wave is way up over a 78% retrace, the .c wave can be a truncated fifth wave.
DeleteHow abt running triangle? ii being A of triangle in your chart
ReplyDeleteNew low below 3,279
ReplyDeleteAs far as I can tell, using degree labeling, we only had three-waves-down, ended on a divergence, and now greater than a 62% retrace. If we go lower, it may be as a diagonal. If we go higher, then the down wave ended an ugly .b wave as a complex .b wave. Jury is still out, patience.
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TJ
If diagonal down we would be in a of 3? By the way, people get frustrated from time to time. I find this B wave getting the better of my patience as well. Don't take the negative comments personally, the majority of us value your work. A major Elliott analyst ($$$) just threw in the towel on the B wave. I think he will soon regret that.
Deleteyes, scout & thanks for the info.
DeleteYes I value your work tremendously...I am learning a lot
DeleteAnyone watching the VIX weekly bands? They are compressing. Looks like we're setting up for a big move.
ReplyDeleteIzard, good point about the weekly BB on the VIX. I often check the daily BB. The last time it compressed at the end of Nov. a move followed, but was not too impressive. Thanks for the reminder to follow the BB on the weekly VIX.
DeleteOn a weekly chart of cash s&p was June to September B wave triangle? Or did that get ruled out? 3331 would be a good target or 308 points.
ReplyDeletefyi - 3330 = 5 x 666
DeleteTJ or any other reader on this blogg, how certain do you think we should be that this (B) should be counted as WXY opposed to ABC? 70%? 80%?
ReplyDeleteIf you want, I can show you ways to count impulses with extended 1, on SPX and NDX, not on DOW.
As long as pontential C is shorter than A, it might only be i of C? So doesn't really matter that much, it can go on if it wants to both as ABC and WXY.
https://invst.ly/pi9s0
TJ isn't it more common with B waves as triangles and X waves as sharp zigzag(s)?
DeleteI think this is the right count ABC and C is impulse with extended w1(just reading Neely) the futures showing perfect proportions even DJ.
DeleteWhy not extending for another few months WXY? - I am using cycles and time does not fit at all. From high to high we have 55 months and according Hurst we have 54 month cycle or as I call it 4 year cycle high. From low to low the 4 year cycle should make a low in June/July or in May the third wave of C should be running. Plus looking Europe and emerging markets(EEM) B is almost complete.... I do not see room for extending another few months.
Let's see if we agree on this easier one first. Do we agree? Extended first wave xi, all of iii is above a line from 0-ii, wave iv breaks that line from 0-ii, does not overlap wave i, and wave v must be shorter than iii?
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If so, the first task for price is to break the channel lower.
TJ
..IF we agree on the above, then here are two questions: 1) do we know 'for a fact' that wave v is over, and won't extend a bit? Remember, it can become 'almost' as long as iii, if it wants. 2) How and when will we 'know' that wave v is not extending a bit? If you say, "only when price again trades below wave iv", then you are correct. That's about all EW can say on this particular time frame. We can speculate until the cows come home on the prior waves, but we have to be laser-focused on what matters at the moment.
DeleteYes, agree!
DeleteLet's wait for the cows to come home
ATH and trade deal 1 details coming soon.
ReplyDeleteThe DOW 2-hr chart is currently the 'cleanest', and has no truncations.
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TJ
..we do need to see how it does on the trade deal signing, however.
Deletehere is an update as of the top of the hour...with the trade ceremonies underway..
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TJ
SPX: ED since 3261 low on 5 minute? Now in 4th wave. Invalid < 3278.10
ReplyDeleteThere is time violation for 2 and 4
DeleteI still think you guys need to consider running triangle with A at 3261. Today being the breakout with the first wave completed and second , now in third wave up
ReplyDelete"breakout of the triangle"
ReplyDeleteSPX: CED completed at 3299, small 5 waves down from there to 3286. Watching for new lows to confirm.
ReplyDeleteForm seems good. EWO looking proper with 20m candles.
DeleteLooks like that idea completed as ZZ. So there is probably more ED to go.
DeleteDOW futures: currently have lower highs and lower lows from the high.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/pii0-
TJ
Nice downward expanding diagonal on the DOW 5-min, can be an "a" wave of ((4)) in the larger contracting diagonal, upward.
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TJ
A new post has been started for the next day.
ReplyDelete