The market today is currently range-bound from the overnight highs. While we are waiting resolution, this chart shows the two most likely paths I can determine for price. If the market does wish to make the 3,300 high, then it could complete a larger hourly diagonal in the following manner.
|ES Futures - Hourly - Diagonal or Start of (a) down as a Flat|
If the market does make this alternate diagonal, then I will have called the minute ((a)) wave 15 - 30 points too early, and I will stand corrected. This count could agree with a slightly larger fifth wave in cash. If this diagonal pattern instead invalidates, then it is possible we have already started the minuet (a) wave down of the minute ((b)) wave down, as a Flat wave. In that case the wave i location is still the diagonal ending minute ((a)) wave, up.
We'll have to wait and see. Yesterday, the 10-day moving average of the put-to-call ratio took another dip, and is still solidly below 0.60 at 0.52.
Have a good start to the day.