The weekly candle is a Doji which may also be seen as a weekly outside key reversal candle. The Doji occurred at a confluence of Fibonacci levels. But it would require a weekly confirming candle with a significantly lower close. The Fibonacci levels being noted are the 150% External Retrace of Intermediate (A) at the 3,262 level, and the Minor Y = 0.618 x Minor W, extension located at 3,253. Both levels are shown on the weekly chart below. The weekly count has not changed.
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| ES Futures - Weekly - Doji at Price Levels |
The daily technical position is mixed and is somewhat in opposition as the Daily Slow Stochastic is still embedded, and the price bias is still positive with price closing over the 18-day SMA. The daily swing-line indicator just went to 'neutral' because of the recent lower low which follows a higher high. The daily chart 'also' shows an outside key reversal bar, as well
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| ES Futures - Daily - Outside Key Reversal |
Daily prices are still in an up channel. And, while a Minor Y wave of Intermediate (B) 'may' indeed be seen as completed here, that assessment conflicts with the $NYAD (NY Advance-Decline line) having made a recent all-time high. So, the up move since October 'may' just be minute ((a)) of Minor Y. Yet, a retrace to the lower Bollinger Band, and/or even the 100-day SMA is likely at any time. In our view it is also possible that minute ((a)) has one more higher high to make - but there is one way to count the up wave in which it may not be required.
Have an excellent start to the weekend.
TraderJoe
Isn't W of lower degree than (A) yet it is longer in both price and time?
ReplyDeleteW is an upward wave. You compare it to the last upward wave (5) which starts in 2016. (A) is a downward wave, and is compared to the prior (4) from 2015 - 2016. Since (A) is longer than (4), it 'must' be either the same degree or a higher degree than (4). W is shorter than (5), in both price and time, and so may be of a lower degree.
Delete..also note how 4, A, and X, the downward waves are almost 'perfect matches' for each other in price length. Hope this helps.
DeleteAnd this up wave (B) is now bigger in price than the housing bubble (B) so it's correct that this (B) is "at least" intermediate degree.
DeleteIf financial crisis intermediate (C) finished a primary ((4)), then if this (C) will finish a primary ((A)), ((2)) or ((4)) maybe we will get the divergences on the next wave up as Pedro was mentioning.
And as you've mentioned TJ this Y of (B) might be too small for divergences to form, at least on the weekly chart.
"And, while a Minor Y wave of Intermediate (B) 'may' indeed be seen as completed here, that assessment conflicts with the $NYAD (NY Advance-Decline line) having made a recent all-time high."
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure that it does. Folks waiting on the NYAD to post a divergence, are looking for that at the FINAL Top. Whereas my understanding on expectations for Int (C) down is that it would complete a 4, and the 5 that follows would come on the NYAD divergence. So, no reason to consult NYAD yet as I see it. Am I missing something?
Possibly correct.
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