"Uh. Tower. This is AAPL. We're approaching 1.618".
I know that a lot of people are interested in what I think the count in APPLE stock is. Here is the short term view on a two-day chart. I WANT you to remember something. Many, many wave analysts told me that the fifth wave up would form as an ending contracting diagonal. That is because APPLE stock was supposedly forming a diagonal. They were sure of it. I didn't see it happening at the location that they did.
I know that a lot of people are interested in what I think the count in APPLE stock is. Here is the short term view on a two-day chart. I WANT you to remember something. Many, many wave analysts told me that the fifth wave up would form as an ending contracting diagonal. That is because APPLE stock was supposedly forming a diagonal. They were sure of it. I didn't see it happening at the location that they did.
So, here is the current local count on APPLE, as best I can tell. The rationale is below the chart.
 |
| APPLE, Inc. - Daily - Three Waves Up |
There never was a diagonal in APPL. It would make an impossibly short B wave in terms of both price and time. There was a triangle; a "running triangle". It makes the B wave longer in 'time' than the A wave. So, lets get some measurements correct right off of the bat. Wave e of B overlaps A, as it is required to do in a running triangle. Within wave minor A, wave xi is the extended wave. Within wave minor C, wave xi is the extended wave. This wave is shorter in price and time than minor A which makes it a valid subwave of C. Within C wave, iii must be shorter than wave xi, so it must have ended already.
Price is approaching a perfect C = 1.618 x A. There should be a reaction off of that level.
Price is approaching a perfect C = 1.618 x A. There should be a reaction off of that level.
Have a good rest of the weekend.
TraderJoe
Thanks for your coverage of apple. I follow it closely, and, in my opinion, it is key to tracking the broader markets.
ReplyDeleteWelcome scout.
DeleteLooked at AAPL yesterday myself and I also saw that triangle. In my brief glimpse at a count I had iii of C where your i is and iv at your ii. Then I went to check the EWO but I didn't see anything that worked. Maybe EWO just doesn't apply in parabolic type moves?
ReplyDeleteIf it's a 'C" wave, they sometimes end without divergence.
DeleteET, have you found "C" waves sometimes ending without a divergence the case with Fisher Transform as well? There currently is a Fisher Transform divergence on the daily, monthly, and quarterly chart of AAPL.
DeleteJoe, it seems to me that some of the internal waves of your x-i are too large relative to the size of iv. Degree violation? Could iv be yet to come?
Delete@tom .. as I have stated in the past, you compare up waves to up waves and down waves to down waves. It is only wave iv and ii which are the waves of comparison, not the internals of x-i.
DeleteJoe, okay. Thanks. Finding the correct count here, with i as the extended wave and iv being so small, appears to me to be extremely difficult. Other than running out of other options, is there is trick to finding an extended first wave?
Delete@Tom. Yes, the second wave retraces 38.2% or less.
Delete@Tom, notice even in this very short term wave, when wave ((3)) is the extended wave, then wave ((2)) has the 50 - 62% retrace. When wave ((1)) is the extended wave, then wave ((2)) usually retraces only 38.2% or less.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/pkxze
TJ
Joe, Thanks much for the valuable lesson.
DeleteRE: tonight
ReplyDeleteStocks in Hong Kong led losses regionally among major Asian markets on Tuesday morning after ratings agency Moody’s cut its rating for the city to Aa3 from Aa2 on Monday. (per CNBC).
Yeah, real 2% average crash for China,S&P future is down 0.66% from the max, it is under the EWO oscillator, it is wave 4 i.m.o.
ReplyDeleteI meant: this is a wave 4 "ending"
DeleteInterested in counts on AAPL low on Dec 3 til today. Still in the channel
ReplyDeleteGoing by 3 and 2 hr candles, looks like it still needs to make either a iv of 3 or 4. Today's high could be part of iv as a b wave
DeleteAAPL, NQ eek out marginal new highs, so far. ES well beyond 78% retrace. Likely the fifth wave of C.
ReplyDeleteUltra-short term (1 min) cash has a 1.618 extension, as below. Watch channel.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/pkxew
TJ
..in the above chart, a wave ((4)) has already taken more 'time' than the wave ((2)), and has just punched the high. Therefore, a FLAT or triangle might be expected to alternate with wave ((2)).
Deletehttps://invst.ly/pkxq9
TJ
.. downward overlap on wave ((3))
Delete..cash just overlapped .. we were headed in the right direction. Wave ended in a slight wedge at b:3! Interesting .. something is wrong for the bulls somewhere. I have just turned negative.
Delete..this is what I see .. given the overlap
Deletehttps://invst.ly/pkycm
TJ
cash broke the morning low
ReplyDelete..this is what I see by degree-labeling, so far.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/pkz03
TJ
..just one thing to watch for that I can see.. the up wave 'may' want to take more time, as a compound flat wave.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/pkz9z
TJ
..a wave 'like' this would satisfy the 56 bar time expectation (for wave ii to be longer in time than wave i).
Deletehttps://invst.ly/pkzhl
TJ
..now up and over red 'w' to avoid a truncation
Delete..there is now downward overlap on red w, and well back inside the up channel.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/pkzr3
TJ
All corrective people...
ReplyDelete'Wave-counting stops' above ES 3,327.25 from what I can see.
ReplyDeleteA different count would apply above red 'y'. We are nowhere near there, yet. It is to avoid risk of reversal in the overnight.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/pkzu-
TJ
another 'five-waves-down' in cash and futures, below the bear flat channel. Probably a lower degree sub-wave .i, and may not be done yet.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/pk-1g
TJ