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| ES Futures - Hourly Closes - Zigzag |
This chart starts with the early morning of January 8th and the deep futures overnight dip to 3,180 on the tensions with Iran. When it seemed to abate, price rocketed higher in what I call a "no-pull-back A wave". I did not have much trouble counting this wave as a diagonal. If so, it was Leading. But the wave can also be counted as an impulse. Because of the potential diagonal count, I thought it might have ended wave minuet (v), upward. That was incorrect. But, this wave was followed by a triangle. The running triangle was caught by reader Jack S. I did not catch it. I was working on, perhaps a larger diagonal. But, he did catch it.
The triangle is followed by a ((C)) wave upward, which may or may not be complete yet. But, at least the ((C)) wave, up, starts with a wave that had a pull-back to back-test the upper triangle trend line. There is a nice divergence on the hourly MACD - but that's all it is at this point. Divergences can last a while. It's possible price wants to get a tad higher. That's OK with me either way. I'm in monitoring mode. So, where's the fractal? Here's the 2-day chart of the ES futures.
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| ES Futures - 2 Day - Fractal |
As a Minor C wave, it has already passed its 62% extension on wave A. But, it, too, has a running triangle in the middle. That one I caught. This chart also started with an "event". It is the well-known announced turn-about in policy by the U.S. Federal Reserve to go into "patient mode" on raising rates and a decision to be flexible about normalizing its balance sheet.
Can this wave go higher? It can. It doesn't have to go much higher, but it can go to 100%. So here's the implication. If the hourly chart is making an ((A))-((B))-((C)), upward, that might start a diagonal wave or a large triangle that ends the sequence.
So, now it is a question of if I use this simpler description of the daily (two-day) up wave. In that case we may have A-B-C down to (A), and A-B-C up to (B). Let's take it step-by-step.
Have a good start to the weekend,
TraderJoe
Hi Joe, Appreciate your insight. I was studying the same small-degree triangle today and made me think it might be prudent to explore the possibility of counting the current upswing (since early October) as a triple-zigzag/triple-three.
ReplyDeletePlease see Chart 2 here on ES here - the small-degree triangle fits well into the 3rd zigzag.
https://market-timing-update.blogspot.com/2020/01/mtu-weekend-ed-expanding-edt-triple.html
Many thanks and have a nice weekend.
MTU
MTU, Thanks for the triple ZZ idea. I think it works very well for the move up from the October low.
DeleteMTU, thank you for the excellent analysis. In your third chart you are counting an impulse from the Oct. low. Since the daily MACD and AO are both highest right now, I would think that we are in the middle of a third wave. If so, then 3263 might be just i of (iii) in a super bullish case. Thanks again.
Delete@MTU .. please note the expanding diagonal possibility was covered in this blog on Dec 18th, at this link: http://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2019/12/measurement.html
Delete@Bob .. please note that 'many' not all "C" waves end without divergence on oscillators.
I saw this and thought it was interesting (fwiw).
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/XKWe13q
TJ,
ReplyDeleteI'm still not sure how this is a B wave. If one looks at MONTHLY CHARTS of the top three stocks in the SPY (S&P ETF), they clearly are NOT in a B wave.
These 3 stocks below represent 12% of the SPY weightings:
APPLE 4.57%
MSFT 4.48%
Google 2.98%
There are many other stocks that clearly are not in a B wave such as Visa and JP Morgan.
Doesn't this make a solid case?
Todd, it really is suggested that you calm down and actually 'do' some analysis. At this point, I'd rather 'see' you commit to a chart rather than to just spout off verbally. I'll do one, and one only. You want to talk 'monthly AAPL', here is monthly AAPL. All you have to do is look for the 0 - (2) trend line. Yes, AAPL is in "five up". Way big in "five up". In fact it is in 5 of (5). And what is the usual expectation after "five of five-up"? Just a correction is all...just a correction.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/pjz6m
And how deep is that correction usually?
TJ
What about prior to 2003?
Delete@Bob .. even if this is a larger wave ((3)), at the top, then a correction for ((4)) is due the stock.
Delete@Bob .. wouldn't something like this have a 'reasonable' Elliott Wave 'look'?
Deletehttps://invst.ly/pj-02
I have also indicated that primary ((3)) 'may' have ended earlier because it might promote the "right look" with alternation for the channel, and also because If in the link above, wave (1) was the extended wave - by look - then wave (5) is 'longer in time' than (3) which it 'shouldn't be' by the principles of degree labeling. Therefore, wave ((4)) may be a 'FLAT or TRIANGLE' to provide more 'time' for the correction of wave ((3)).
In either case, it looks like - by the principles of channeling - like a correction is due the stock.
TJ
hey tj....i saw this kind of gibberish by peeps leading up to and through the 2008 swoon...greed and fear rules.not great technical analysis
DeleteTJ,
ReplyDeleteI haven’t seen a reason to do the work. C’mon, if your analysis fails, why would I think mine be any better? I watched you for months on another website rip the technician for how his system failed and how you saw an ending diagonal etc, etc.... In my eyes, you listed great supporting evidence with conviction. It was easy to start following you. You have had some good runs, but this latest one is not. Last year, you had a 90% conviction this B wave wouldn’t hit new highs. I saw a lot of others claim B Wave too. They have all conceded. I’ve watched this website point out a potential top for 12 months. I could go on and on. I am looking for an understanding of potential failure from EW. That other website you ripped is looking pretty good right now. There followers are up handsomely. I would love to find a system I could get excited about. Unfortunately, that one doesn’t convince me enough either and I paid over a $1,000 to learn it.
As long as the Fed has such a major control on liquidation and interest rates, I think this kind of system has too much potential for failure.
DeleteRegarding 2008: The stock market was heavily leveraged. We are in a period of deleveraging and likely on our way to lower interest rates. Bear markets don’t kick off this way.
The only thing I see as an immediate kickback now is Bernie Sanders winning the Dem nomination.
..blah, blah ...you, sir, are what's known as a 'free-loading-scoundrel'. You don't post any charts or learn any wave theory because to do so would cost you to take 'risk'. Not so much risk of losing money. Risk of being incorrect. If you take no risk, you make no progress.
DeleteA short term chart of AAPL is in the next day's post.
TJ
Free-loading on what? Cmon! Name calling? I don’t post charts because I don’t believe in EW. I thought you could convince me differently. I think you are smart and good at what you do. We are just not seeing eye to eye on EW’s usefulness.
Delete