New Year's Speculation

Here is an idea for you - as long as you accept it for only that. It is not to be taken as trading or investment advice. While this idea might seem either overly precise or overly complicated, it is based on the Elliott Wave principles listed below the projection/speculation. One way to look at this is that I do it at my own risk. Another way to look at it is that a person needs to have a potential idea for what could occur, and monitor deviations from the expected. So, without further delay ...

ES Futures - Daily Close - Projection/Speculation

Here are the principles involved in this chart. The chart starts with the current up wave from October 2019. Actual prices in blue continue through the end of December, and the projection follows in red.

1. The Federal Reserve is still very active in the markets.
2. The NY Advance-Decline line is still at an all time high.
3. The most prominent structure in 2019 was a mid-year triangle.
4. There should not be a diagonal immediately following a large triangle, by alternation.
5. Therefore, the current up wave from October should resolve as an impulse.
6. The current impulse should end minute ((a)) of Minor Y of (B) in January.
7. There should be a 38 - 62% move down from the high for minute ((b)).
8. Once the minute ((b)) is made, then, a minute ((c)) wave could be a diagonal, as ((a)) and ((c)) would alternate.
9. For the diagonal, each of waves (i), (iii) and (v) should marginally exceed the prior high.

A diagonal structure would help maintain the 1.50 or 1.62 extension of Intermediate (B) on Intermediate (A). The three higher peaks of the diagonal would be around March 1, April 1 and May 1, or the employment reports those months.

Notice in the current up wave from October, we have not seen a triangle wave or a diagonal, yet. Typically, one of these two patterns precedes a major top. The diagonal should have good proportions within it. Three waves in each numbered leg should be pretty distinct, and the retrace percents within the diagonal should be substantial. The hardest thing to project will be the depth and shape of the minute ((b)) wave - if it should occur.

Have an excellent start to the New Year. Please don't blame me if the chart doesn't work out day-by-day. It is the best projection I can do, given the Elliott Wave principles available, and incorporating stock market seasonality.

Have a very good start to the New Year.

TraderJoe