Here is the continuation of the daily tracking post. The market made another high today, extending slightly the potential fifth wave of minuet (v) of minute ((a)), but also helping to make it look more proportional.
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| ES Futures - Daily - Higher High |
Yesterday, a number of ways the wave count could continue were outlined. Overnight and during the day there was overlap upon overlap upon overlap. The resulting shorter-term count is the one below.
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| ES Futures - 30 Minutes - Multiple Overlaps |
The 'b' wave count was eliminated as it would be longer in time than ((1)). That currently leaves a five-wave structure like a diagonal. The measurements are right for a diagonal, but just barely. Let's see how it goes.
A reminder that the monthly jobs report is tomorrow morning.
Have a very good start to your evening.
TraderJoe
3278 + or -
ReplyDeleteIsn't it less likely that we'll get and ending diagonal considering that the bigger degree X formed as a triangle, compared to If X would have been a simple zigzag or a flat? If the market have already shown weakness and indecision in X maybe it doesn't need another triangle formation.
ReplyDelete@Erik .. I'm unclear about what you are saying. Are you saying the market can top here, without a divergence from the advance-decline line? That's what the daily diagonal minute ((c)) wave is is all about: to create divergences with the a-d line.
DeleteYes, just my personal opinion of how it looks, I think it looks "weird" with a triangle formation upon a triangle formation, the market have already traveled side ways in X. So maybe it's more likely W and Y will be pure impulse motive waves, just some thoughts.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/pg31l
NDX is now above 1.618 and the breadth is very strong so just a spontaneous thought, maybe (at least NDX and tech stocks) haven't finished primary 5? Maybe that's why NYAD is still so strong in this (B)?
Deletehttps://invst.ly/pg341
Unlike SPX, NDX does have an overlap that makes the housing bubble (B) wave easier to count as a ((1))?
Deletehttps://invst.ly/pg36v
NQ futures up 350 points from the bottom 48 hours ago. Remarkable! No Sellers.
ReplyDeleteES futures have a max in wave ((5)) of 3287.75, by measurement. So far, they have gotten to 3287.00 before falling off prior to the employment report. Let's see if it holds or not.
ReplyDeleteES prior low of 3279.50 has been exceeded lower. Best to now assume the diagonal ended at the high of 3287.00, and if the high is exceeded then into some kind of third wave higher - or possibly a 'b' wave higher. If the high is not exceeded, then look for (at least) retrace waves below - maybe more.
DeleteES 15-min has a lower low
DeleteES new lower low on the day; SP500 opening gap closed.
ReplyDeleteSince there is upward overlap already, it is possible that a pattern like this starts a contracting diagonal. Let me be clear. It doesn't have to, but it needs to be watched for. It's a way to get the futures and cash in synch.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/pghw0
TJ
wave ((3)) in such a downward diagonal is only good to 3,271.50; below that a different structure must be considered. So far .. holding..
DeleteES 3,271.50 was just defeated lower. Either impulse or expanding diagonal lower.
DeleteThank you Joe... excellent commentary and much appreciated!
ReplyDeleteNice call on the diag to this morning's peak! It was funky looking, but the results are what rules the day. :o) Was definitely not easy to see.
ReplyDeleteThanks!
..welcome GW
DeleteCommercials haven't been this short CL since the April 2019 top. Price is back below the 100 week ma, slow stoch. turning down with an apparent outside week down. https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/CLF20/technical-chart?plot=CANDLE&volume=0&data=WN&density=O&pricesOn=1&asPctChange=0&logscale=0&indicators=COTLC;SMA(18);SMA(100);BBANDS(18,2);STOSL(14,3)&sym=CLF20&grid=1&height=375&studyheight=100
ReplyDeleteIf we do have an interim top, VIX is behaving very strangely.
ReplyDeleteUnless risk has truly been completely driven from this market, expectations are woefully mis-placed it would appear. Mr Market continues to surprise, and likely is about really stun a few folk...but which cohort??!!
Agree. VIX is down so much that the market should be up big. Yet we are flat to down slightly. Everyone must be convinced that the correction starting today is done already. Looks like at least a good C or 3 down is yet to come. IMO.
DeleteAs a trader, I agree that price discovery in this market is broken, I am NOT at all persuaded though, as some assert, that CB intervention will permanently abolish market risk...the TINA crowd...that seems beyond insane to me. Already the FED is in full-blown panic and now advise us repo operations "may" continue" until April. We now have a market cap to GDP over 150% and market price earnings, and even more importantly price sales ratio at historic bloated levels...yet VIX around 12 and change???!! No market risk huh..?
DeleteFor a downward expanding diagonal, based on time measurements, the pattern would need a longer and deeper iii; chart below.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/pgju4
TJ
ES 15-min has the lower low.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/pgj-b
TJ
This is the first 15-min ES candle close below the daily pivot, P, (classic calculation), and 1.618 and weekly R1 pivot (classic calculation) are at the same location of 3,264. It's not required that price make it there, as iii is now longer than i, but it might.
DeleteTJ
..here is an updated chart.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/pgk3j
TJ
Weekly R1 pivot and 1.618 just tagged. Also, undercuts the low from noon yesterday.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/pgk8f
TJ
A new post has been started for the weekend.
ReplyDelete