New all time High

Below is the daily tracking graph. A new ES futures low was made in the overnight, and then prices swung around 180 degrees to initially make a marginal new all-time high.

ES Futures - Daily - New ATH

The new ATH confirms at least the onset of wave (v). Could it be all of it? Yes, but then it would look quite short. The fifteen minute futures chart is below as it was counted in real time from the low.

ES Futures - 15 Minutes - From the Overnight Low

First, the overnight low did retrace 38 - 50% of wave minuet (iii), and better located the low for minuet wave (iv) of minute ((a)). And that's where the fun begins. Using the 0 - 2 trend line technique, we located wave ((3)), and called wave ((5)) in real time to the bar. But the tiny wave that follows (before the Presidential news conference at noon) really did not provide hardly any time to correct the first five waves up. Therefore we have either one of these four cases.

1. Five waves up to the high
2. Three waves up to a marginal high as a-b-c of a diagonal i wave of minuet (v) of minute ((a)).
3. One wave up and making a big FLAT for a second wave.
4. Three waves up and a non-overlapping fourth

The decline at the end of the day was the largest decline since the up wave began, so there is likely a degree change there of some type - even if just for a fourth wave. The shape of the upward wave is very funky, and the market is doing it's best to keep it's options open. If there is overlap in the overnight, it will help clarify the structure. Let's see what we can see tonight.

Have an excellent start to the evening.
TraderJoe