ES Futures - Daily - New ATH |

The new ATH confirms at least the onset of wave (v). Could it be all of it? Yes, but then it would look quite short. The fifteen minute futures chart is below as it was counted in real time from the low.

ES Futures - 15 Minutes - From the Overnight Low |

First, the overnight low did retrace 38 - 50% of wave minuet (iii), and better located the low for minuet wave (iv) of minute ((a)). And that's where the fun begins. Using the 0 - 2 trend line technique, we located wave ((3)), and called wave ((5)) in real time to the bar. But the tiny wave that follows (before the Presidential news conference at noon) really did not provide hardly any time to correct the first five waves up. Therefore we have either one of these

*four*cases.- Five waves up to the high
- Three waves up to a marginal high as a-b-c of a diagonal
**i**wave of minuet (v) of minute ((a)). - One wave up and making a big FLAT for a second wave.
- Three waves up and a non-overlapping fourth

The decline at the end of the day was the largest decline since the up wave began, so there is likely a degree change there of some type - even if just for a fourth wave. The shape of the upward wave is very funky, and the market is doing it's best to keep it's options open. If there is overlap in the overnight, it will help clarify the structure. Let's see what we can see tonight.

Have an excellent start to the evening.

TraderJoe

Nice VIX pop from bullish falling wedge...current wave up likely done.

ReplyDeleteDone based on that pop up?

ReplyDeleteNo entirely convinced. Potential break-away gap ( top at 13.33) has to hold...and you have seen what they have been doing to VIX gaps lately...

ReplyDeleteJoe, just to confirm, your count has us going to the SP 3300 - 3800 range for V before any pull-back below SP 3200 - right?

ReplyDeleteLook at the RED lines on the chart for projected price action...

DeleteNo AW328 .. I have no idea where you got that from.

DeleteIf my eye is correct, it looks like option 1 is out, 2 could be in v wave of (v) of ((a)), 3 is out, option 4 could have completed wave 4 and 5 up. Ok, tear it apart! ha

ReplyDeleteIn one manner or another - impulse or diagonal - a fifth wave looks to be being made.

ReplyDeleteTJ

The relative lengths of time, and odd shapes of the waves might suggest the diagonal is the better choice.

Deletehttps://invst.ly/pfxld

TJ

that is my hunch as well. Time will tell, and soon

Deletethere is a new ath

ReplyDeleteTJ,

ReplyDeleteSee if you can make it fit for a high tomorrow

Payroll report tomorrow.

ReplyDeleteES has taken out the low of the morning (not the full overnight session). If a retrace sticks we either have an interim top as a diagonal or a "b" wave up. Checking on the b wave to see how it fits.

ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/pf-a6

TJ

..wow.. time-wise a b wave can fit, by 1 candle!

DeleteCool Joe,

DeleteOften the top can be a day early, Thanks

SPX: I have wave (iii) of expanding diagonal of [v] of 5 complete at high. 4th wave should go below 3246.84. If that plays out, then target for (v) would be around 3292.36 where 3-0 = 5-2. Remember that the May high ended with an expanding diagonal where 3-0 was VERY close to 5-2 but the 5th wave did truncate and was less than the 3rd wave. (v) will take at least 2.5 days to finish. (iv) needs to take at least an hour.

ReplyDelete@Bob .. just a little confusing to follow your idea; where does your expanding diagonal start? link to chart?

DeleteAnyone have thoughts on AAPL? I read an analysis that mentioned that every time apple has poked hard above its quarterly bollinger band, its produced a big correction (like end of 2018). It's way above its quarterly bollinger band now. Just wondering what this portends for the market.

ReplyDeleteAAPL may have just completed a wave (3) of [5]. Expecting a drop of 22-45 to match wave 2. Previous 4th wave territories would be 286 and 257. I started the count from 2003.

DeleteThanks Bob. That's the count I've seen on AAPL too.

DeleteIt may not quite be done. Maybe in 5 now from Monday morning

DeleteGap higher with a doji candle would be exquisite.

ReplyDeleteWill it issue in one more negation? The CBs are not foolin' around...!

@Tachy, timeframe of chart and market are unclear in your comment.

DeleteWas looking at DJIA on daily. Doji candle starting to fill out though...

DeleteHere's a 78.6% retrace on the ES 5-min.

ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/pg06f

TJ

I cannot remember how many times I have counted impulsive(yes five waves!) declines over the last few years and then eagerly tracked what I was confident would be a corrective wave up, only to watch in amazement as price unexpectedly continued to grind higher past 38, 62, 76% and on to make new highs. It may be my experience in this regard is unique but I have repeatedly fail to successfully call market direction using fib re-tracements alone...

DeleteIndex may be laboring to strike 3280 upside target....

ReplyDeleteES 15-min retrace did not hold..marginal new high; it's run out of time for a b wave..would be bigger than all of the first three waves up. Can still be vth in a diagonal.

ReplyDeleteET -- do you have an ETA (approx) for (v) of ((a))/ red "Or Top" ??

ReplyDeleteI'm asking to see which count bests fits my (non EW) work, as I see only very low probabilities for either of those tops before FOMC, or thereabouts. Another way of putting this ... what count fits that timeline? No need to respond if you don't want to get ahead of yourself. I'm just sufficiently confident enough in my work that I rule out what doesn't fit, and in effect I'm sharing that outlook (fwiw to you, I understand).

Short-term, I'd keep an eye on the orange trend line

ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/pg17r

TJ

I am looking at a very similar drawn along the 2,4 wave lows.

DeleteI kinda gave up on it when we failed to get the typical obvious fifth wave throw-over and dramatic breach of the trend-line prior to the close. The waiting game continues....

A VIX gap higher I concede will NOT be a SUFFICIENT event to signal some kind of interim top, but I do think it NECESSARY one...

ReplyDeleteI think cycle topped today, ES can still make one new high but SPX probably ended in a small truncation.... not sure what will happen, but i guess some kind of event will crash the markets starting tomorrow (ES ending diagonal started at 3181).

ReplyDeleteso i am not expecting that ending diagonal that TJ has in his tracking, where he has (i) & (ii) i have (a) & (b)

take care,

KAVI

Interesting. Exactly 100% retrace of ES highs at the close...

ReplyDeleteA new post has been started for the next day.

ReplyDelete