The best I could determine using either cash or futures is that price made three-waves down and three-waves up (so far). Here is the futures chart. The cash chart was repeated many times in yesterday's comments.
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| ES Futures - 30 Minutes - Three Down and Three Up |
In this chart in the downward direction, c = 0.786 x a (to the pip), and in the upward direction the ((C)) or iii wave is 1.618 x ((A)) or i.
While such a pattern may start a diagonal lower, there is, as yet no conclusive proof of that. Such a pattern might also start a triangle that would lead to higher highs. There is still room to the upside, and there could also be down side surprises.
So patience is again the by-word. Now seems like the time for counting to see what larger form is materializing.
Have a great start to the evening.
TraderJoe
If we generally look for alternation between 2 and 4, the sharp for 2 and flat for 4 ending at your b works better to make for 5 waves down. EWO looks alright with 10m candles.
ReplyDeleteRegardless, whether it's 3 or 5 down a larger correction can still unfold here. The beauty of EW!
By 'degree labeling' the subwave C of your fourth wave would be 'longer in time' than the whole supposed higher degree second wave. True?
DeleteSince wave 4s often take a lot longer, doesn't that usually end up being the case?
DeleteNo C.. again most people misunderstand the principle of degree labeling - comparing waves in the same direction. So, the only way a 4 can have a wave longer in time than a 2 is if the 'b' wave within 4 takes more time. That is ok because b points 'in the same direction' as 3, as may take up to as much time as 3.
DeleteIm still watching 2 of larger diagonal since 3181.
ReplyDeleteThis is the best case for the larger diagonal I can find. It comes from the Dow futures, where there is a critical overlap. ES does not have this overlap from what I can see.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/pmd4e
TJ
The overnight completed five wave up (red iv, v). And if this morning is to be a 'b' wave in a continuing diagonal, by principles of degree labeling it must remain shorter in price and time than the larger degree (ii), down.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/pmf-1
TJ
So I'm seeing an expanded flat for wave 4 and then the 5 up from yesterday is a truncated 5th to potentially end the C wave. Am I missing something?
ReplyDelete@Steven M .. see my posts above at 7:33 am & 10:35 am. It is very difficult or impossible to count the DOW that way due to overlap.
DeleteHere are the Dow futures this morning - as best I can tell.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/pmgps
TJ
The Dow just overlapped it's prior upward wave ((1)) .. this itself is a warning of less impulsive behavior, upward.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/pmgu5
TJ
Going by your previous reply, doesn't this have a degree violation with the c or e of 4 taking longer than all of 2?
Deleteso here is one possibility, the 3 waves down yesterday was actually 1 and expanded B, then the 5 move overnight in futures was C.....
ReplyDeleteYes Jack, with indexes and particularly US futures you'll get almost every option under the sun due to the propensity of expanded b's. There's not much edge to be gained in tracking them solely.
DeleteWatching VIX. I imagine risk desk managers are starting to get just a wee bit antsy....
ReplyDeleteDaily CL riding the lower bb with slow stoch. embedded. https://invst.ly/pmhfl
ReplyDeleteThe DOW just got itself into big trouble by taking out the low.
ReplyDeleteWe are currently meeting Neely's guideline for a 'faster break down' than the prior up wave.
ReplyDeleteLooking at the ES, this is also the largest decline since the Iran Tensions low on Jan 7th-8th, and changes the degree.
DeleteSo the Dow then was an expanding leading diagonal followed by a 78% retrace second wave and now 5 waves down?
DeleteIt plays out as expected - yesterday was b wave higher now c lower to complete 4 and next week 5 to complete the whole B wave - https://invst.ly/pmhvi
ReplyDeleteThere is some new overlap. See my post, below.
DeleteJoe, is a double ZZ considered to be acceptable alternation to a ZZ?
ReplyDeleteThanks
see below, Roy.
DeleteNo matter how to want to count wave i, up; two locations shown - there has been overlap at that location. There is alternation if the larger diagonal for wave i is used instead of the triangle.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/pmj10
TJ
Test of break-out shelf underway. If we have a final top I think we should impulsively break it before the close. it will be amusing to see if they try and smash VIX back below 15. No unwind of the leveraged longs...so far....
DeleteClearly seen, thanks Joe
DeleteDaily 500 Futures at the 18 ma with slow stoch. pointing down at just above 80: https://invst.ly/pmj3q
ReplyDeletedoesnt mean much if stoch embed lost
ReplyDeletewe are close to 18 d sma