Over the weekend, I was reading, and re-reading, and re-reading the latest newsletter from a major Elliott Wave service. And in that newsletter I found that the author, Robert Prechter, has apparently gotten the internal degree labeling correct from the 1932 stock market low. The article also goes on to make a case that the level of 28,600 - 28,700 corresponds very closely to a Fibonacci number in the Dow. It is a very cogent argument. But, then the author goes on to make a case for a fourth and a fifth wave that completely destroys the degree labeling shown beautifully before. In short, it contains a supposed downward minute wave (a) of a triangle that is much longer in price and time than a larger degree minor W wave, also downward. Those of you that have been following the degree labeling details here know just what bad form that is.
My brain was working on over-drive. Is there an alternative to the one Prechter presents, that 'might' work, and still give us the fifth wave? I promise, the work below is wholly original. It sprang up from the question, "what if the whole dang thing is a diagonal?!" You have a look. I have seen this exact pattern nowhere else.
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| YM Futures - Weekly - Ending Diagonal ? |
Wave Minor 5 is shorter in price and time than wave Minor 3, and Wave Minor 3 is shorter in price and time than Wave Minor 1. Wave 4 is shorter in price and time than Minor 2, and overlaps wave Minor 1. Wave 2 is almost a 50% retrace on wave 1 - which is even better proportions than the 2015 diagonal. And each of the three-wave zigzags has been labeled.
And, we would now be in the overthrow of a diagonal now, and nearing the very end of the diagonal wedge.
Here's what I know. I know that this count works at Primary degree. I know it works internally. In other words - Minor 2 is larger than minute (b), and minute (b) is larger than minuet ii. What I don't yet know is whether the wave works on a percentage basis from the 2009, low.
Right now, the pattern is intriguing. In the spirit of Elliott Wave work, I encourage you to beat it up. Help me find what is wrong with it.
Have a great rest of the weekend.
TraderJoe
P.S. Subsequent to this post, I ran this idea through MotiveWave software to look for any 'obvious' errors. The good news is no blatant errors or warnings of any type were provided. The MotiveWave chart is below.
While it should be noted that the chart contains no errors or warnings, it must still be percentage verified. However, it is worth nothing that the Dow's "orphan wave" in Jan - Feb 2016 versus the S&P500 does get accounted for. The count remains an alternate pending further study and post-pattern behavior verification. This is only one step in a validation, and one further slight high is allowed.
P.S. Subsequent to this post, I ran this idea through MotiveWave software to look for any 'obvious' errors. The good news is no blatant errors or warnings of any type were provided. The MotiveWave chart is below.
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| YM Futures - Weekly - MotiveWave Version of potential Diagonal |
While it should be noted that the chart contains no errors or warnings, it must still be percentage verified. However, it is worth nothing that the Dow's "orphan wave" in Jan - Feb 2016 versus the S&P500 does get accounted for. The count remains an alternate pending further study and post-pattern behavior verification. This is only one step in a validation, and one further slight high is allowed.
Thx ET, Never liked that 2017 wave as an impulse in a motive series.
ReplyDeleteHi Joe, Happy New Year! Here are the corresponding measurements in SP500 cash, where the proposed minor 2-down of intermediate (5)-up in 2018 is larger in percentages (as well as points) to (4)-down in 2015-2016 and (2)-down in 2010-2011 - which suggests a degree violation?
ReplyDelete2-down of (5)-up -20.21% (2940.91 to 2346.58)
(4)-down -15.21% (2134.72 to 1810.1)
(2)-down -21.58% (zigzag, 2011) (1219.8 to 1074.77)
(2)-down -11.89% (expanded flat, 2010-2011, alternates with (4)-down) (1370.58 to 1074.77)
Many thanks.
MTU
Thanks MTU. Due to discrepancies with 1.618, up, in the Dow, and overlaps in 2013 - 2014, it is possible that wave (4) starts earlier than May of 2015. Also, note in 2016 the Dow just did not make that lower low to exceed the ending diagonal like the S&P500 did. So, this suggests (in the Dow!) that wave (4) may have started earlier and be deeper. I'll have to get into this when I get more time. But, many many thanks for the initial look.
DeleteYes, it would make 2 of (5) significantly deeper than (4) no matter how you slice it.
DeleteWow!
ReplyDeleteI have been a bit skeptical of all the EW analysts calling for new highs after a significant market correction, not because of any particular EW insight, but rather because of my own conviction that market price is now being primarily driven by CB activity, and that a market high would occur AFTER a resumption of Q.E., which I expected with ontological certitude. The first give-away was when they began "Stealth" Q.E. This happened BEFORE the REPO crisis. Just take a look at their balance sheet and you will have no doubt. The you-know-what hit the fan when the REPO crisis erupted, and the rate and size of balance sheet expansion eclipsed ALL of the prior tightening cycle. Look at the balance sheet. If these were truly short term loans, why has NONE of it been repaid?!! Again, LOOK at the &*#%@## balance sheet!
My view has been that this market is going to go down when the cabal looses control of it by way of endless liquidity injections and that implies COLLAPSE not CORRECTION. Interestingly enough, we now have geo-political developments that could incubate quite a global financial Sh- t Storm.
Do you folk understand the implication of where price is headed if that beast thrown up by TJ is correct??! Awesome charting TJ.
I now finally have an EW structure that agrees with my own thought experiment!
I agree on all counts Tachyon. Great job Joe. I have had a feeling that 2020 sees a collapse begin that ends towards 11k-13k in 2021. Just haven't known how that could be possible from an Elliott Wave perspective. Very thought provoking wave count!
DeleteI have it end in March april 1650 ish. Flash crash.
DeleteI have added a P.S. which charts the same waves through MotiveWave software to look for obvious errors or warnings. See above.
ReplyDeleteOne observation, and one question.
ReplyDeleteObservation. (c) of 1 (upper chart) is short of (a) x .382. Seems pretty short.
Question. Does it matter that (c) of 5 > (c) of 3 ?
Thanks for your persistence on this move up from Dec '18!
.. yep, (c) of 1 is a shorty. It is also a bit shorter than the first five-wave sequence, up. Why did it miss its target of (v) = (i) if it's an impulse.
Delete.. nope, since the (c)'s are of the same degree, they may have slightly different lengths in relation to each other.
And welcome. Thanks for asking great questions on this site!
Did anyone one else measure upside limit of 5 under the above scenario?
ReplyDeleteI got just under 31000 at 30,977...not that I expect another 2K+ upside mind you...just what is technically possible for the CED...
..just that the expectation would be a price collapse sometime 'before' where the diagonal trend lines meet. And, we are very, very, very close to that point now. Otherwise, they could just be 'lines on a chart'.
DeleteI have posted the exact count above for almost a year on another site. It gets very close to degree violations on both the 1 and 2 versus (1) and (2) not shown. I believe you need log prices and it's very close. Very interesting.
ReplyDeleteI'm looking at spx on violations never measured Dow. Nice to see us considering same possible path.
DeleteSo. Again. I don't mean to be or sound dismissive. But you expect me to believe "you did it first" without a link to the reference, and especially without posting it here before in the past; and further with your recent arguments about the triangle? It strains credulity Mr. Marc.
Deletepbeck can verify
Deleteand ill find a link
a year ago i had the dec low as wave 2 of (5).
DeleteIt took me until august to see it as a diagonal.
I stopped posting on a regular basis around that time on most sites.
counting the move from 2016 as (5)th wave in progress
and 2018 dec as bottom of wave 2
https://imgur.com/c8xcRwL
contnuing possibility
https://imgur.com/6kto3VA
bringing in diagonal - could have completed - obviously still in play
https://imgur.com/pnp7CnL
Your last post says it ended in July. Not correct. And not the diagonal shown above - except wave 2. I did not call it a diagonal, until one could be seen. I don't know what you are trying to prove. And you shared none of it here - those could actually be some other user's posts. What do I know. All I know is I arrived at the diagonal independently. I certainly wasn't aware of any of these post, and none of them have proper degree labels on them.
DeleteI have had the issue with (1) (2) and 1 and 2 (5) in terms of wave degrees for a year and tried on several occasions to get guidance. Do you use log prices in longer term charts? Do you measure waves from beginning to end or high to low? Maybe you can look at this count from this perspective - it's truly fascinating if it's valid by your measured.
DeleteI never questioned you arrived at it independently. I'm trying to prove that your wave counting methods can lead us both independently to arrive at same count.
DeleteActually, I remember two out of three of marc's posts. FWIW.
Delete@marc & Kelly 0 - please see the next day's post.
DeleteY'all know how I love round numbers.
ReplyDeleteWe have seen this market take price to mind-boggling extremes...only to keep on chugging. Can you even begin to imagine the kind of bullish frenzy that would be unleashed if DJIA actually made a run toward 3000?! My larger point is that this would in no way diminish thd deadly implications of the
pattern and would definitely plump a few more pigs for...well, you know...!
..yes, I would get bullish around your Dow 3,000 number, lol.
DeleteHe!he!
DeleteOops, typo, I meant 30K..
DeleteMusing about impending developments...if we are indeed completing a large B wave, the upcoming C down "should" unfold as a five wave impulse so I am not sure why some counts that posit a B wave are talking about possible zig zags down. I think the expectation of strong support at 3100 would give me pause that we're not quite done if that does in fact happen If it is a C down, 3200 AND 3100 will be SMASHED on the FIRST wave down. That's my story and I am sticking to jt...!
ReplyDeleteSome are thinking triangle for the (C) wave down.
DeleteI did not know that was possible for and ending C wave that was not part of a diagonal...
DeleteRare ES gap down. Below 3212.03 invalidtes a potential third up...will they fill it?
ReplyDeleteGold at 62% retrace on the weekly.
ReplyDeleteUp, up and. away...!
DeleteIf my measuring is close, starting from 2009 low:
ReplyDelete(3) = (1) x 2.00 +/-
(5) = (1) x 2.618 +/-
Basis ES. This assumes our new 5th wave. I have 2.618 around 3245.
Just my observation.
Things that make you go hmmmmm
DeleteQuestion:
ReplyDeleteHow does our new potential 5th look on A/O? (I cant adjust to the necessary days, otherwise I wouldnt ask).
Thanks!
A couple of add'l measures:
ReplyDelete3 of (5) = 1 of (5) x .618 at 3023 area
5 of (5) = 3 of (5) x .618 at 3247 area
Basis ES. Nice symmetry (so far).
Maybe someone have mentioned, but on spx both subwaves of lower degree 2 is bigger than (2), and c of 2 is bigger than (4).
ReplyDeleteand ”a” of 3 is bigger than (1).
Even though this ED (5) is the extended wave is this really valid?
SPX cash, 30 min. chart - Possible inverted running flat forming to Friday's 1st wave decline.
ReplyDeleteOr possibly running triangle...
DeleteOr a LD down from Thursday's top.
Delete5 min Gold triangle was a b.
ReplyDeleteI'm still stuck when I look at the chart of NYA. It has always looked like a picture perfect abc decline from the Jan 2018 high to the Dec 2018 low.
ReplyDeleteI'm still working on this issue in terms of the degrees involved. I hope everyone can understand, it is still 'a work in progress'. These issues are not easy on the largest scales. Here's the point: there was a 'prior' larger Intermediate sized down wave in the Dow.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/pec8e
But, then, we have to see if this shifts the problems to the up waves - i.e. do they become 'too long' for their definitions. That's why the issue gets complicated. In the shorter term, the definitions are a little easier to work with because the waves are not on log scale.
TJ
Out of curiosity, I asked MotiveWave to show me an ending diagonal starting from Dec 2018 low. It gave me 1 in mid July, 2 mid Aug, 3 in late Nov, 4 in early Dec. Just based upon daily data, it couldnt decompose wave 4. It didnt show intraday data back far enough (perhaps I just missed something.)
ReplyDeleteIt is contracting, with 3 = 1 x .50, and currently 5 = 3 x .50. 4 overlaps 1. Perhaps a starting point.
A new post has been started for the next day. A new era.
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