This is the second post this weekend. If you have not already read the prior post, you are encouraged to do so, now.
Ok. I get it. People are getting 'darn tired' of all this (B) wave talk. They want something else. (B) waves are trying. They are "sucker" waves designed to get people bullish at exactly the wrong time. And nobody wants to be in that "got ya" category. (B) waves seem to grind incessantly. and never end. Still I must offer what I think is additional, not incontrovertible, evidence that we are, in fact, in the Intermediate (B) wave.
The first bit of evidence comes from the Monthly Russell 2000 chart, below. If you will study this chart from the 2009 low, you will see that there are five waves up with clear alternation.
|Russell 2000 Futures - Monthly - x(5) wave|
Do you accept the fact that there are five-waves-up with alternation from the 2009 low on this chart? And, by measurement, do you accept the fact that wave x(5) is, indeed, the extended wave in this sequence? And, by measurement, do you also accept the fact that there has, already, been a critical overlap on the chart? In other words, IF wave (3) was actually wave (1), then there would be an overlap that prevents the Dec 2018 low from being a new wave (4) location?
Further, if wave (5) is already the extended wave in the sequence, should the impulse go on further? Don't the extended fifth waves typically end the sequence?
If you easily accept what is on the chart, then why don't you also accept that we are in a "new" wave sequence that started with a three-wave-down sequence as Intermediate (A)? Has the chart gone over the top yet? Is it even at 90%, yet? No, in both cases. Is the Russell trying to make 90%? Maybe, but it does not have to.
OK. If that is not enough evidence, let's look at your money: your real money. More specifically, let's look at the S&P500 priced in terms of real money: Gold. The weekly chart is below.
|$SPX:$GOLD - Weekly - Lower Highs|
This chart attempts to do what many say is required: it tries to eliminate the effect of the FED's influence in the monetary system by pricing the S&P500 in terms of real money, or Gold.
When this is done, it is very, very clear that the all time high in the real valuation for stocks was in October, 2018 - at the high of wave Intermediate (5). Since that time, there has been a series of declining highs, although a lower low would be needed to more definitively prove the case. We think that will happen.
Again, it is the effort of this site to provide the evidence for the one - most probable - case for a count. The charts above add to the evidence. And this is in addition to the evidence provided by degree labeling. It is clearly up to the nay-sayers to make their case with their evidence that is hard to discount. We await such evidence.
Have a great rest of the weekend.