Thursday, December 26, 2019

Still Above 0 - 2 Trend Line

U.S. Debt Clock: $23.15 Trillion; prev $23.14
ES Daily Candle: Higher High, Higher Low, Higher Close: Trend Candle
Market Posture: Neutral
Daily Swing Line: Higher
Daily Bias: Up (Settle Above 18-day SMA)
Resistance: Upper Daily Bollinger Band

With approximately 100 candles on a four-hourly chart, price - in the chart below - can be seen to be nearing a 1.618 extension of a first wave higher.

ES Futures - 4 Hr - Nearing 1.618

All of this is occurring while price is above the 0 - 2 trend line, the solid brown line shown. So, according to The Eight Fold Path Method, the up move must be respected as a third wave. While there are divergences, the Elliott Wave Oscillator has not closed in on the zero line, yet, and would be expected to around 120 candles, possibly in a fourth wave.

A down wave can not likely be ascertained, not even a fourth wave, until the 0 - 2 trend line is broken. A fourth wave might be a 38% retrace of wave ((3)) when wave ((3)) has concluded. As a result, my market posture has gone to just neutral, from neutral-to-negative.

Have a continued good holiday period!
TraderJoe

18 comments:

  1. Yep. Flagging price action in ES with upside target at just about 3350...getting close!

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    Replies
    1. ..just to clarify, did you mean 3,350? or was it a 3,250 typo?

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  2. Thanks TJ its been a wonderful year learning from your work. Best to you and yours for this holiday season.

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  3. TJ,
    Do you have a yearly candlestick chart for the S&P? If the market can finish strong for the year, my guess would be several more years of upside

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  4. $CPCE is as low as I have seen it in a long time, if not ever.

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  5. thanks joe.
    when was your last posture neutral as it is now? happy new year in advance

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    Replies
    1. Hi Marc & Happy New Year, too. Only 'neutral' for a potential fifth wave, and possibly one larger fourth wave and vth wave of (a) of Y - if they materialize. They don't have too - a diagonal could be created. Have to take it step-by-step. I really didn't state much of a market posture in early posts. I'm concentrating on doing that more now.

      TJ

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    2. thats helpful. on another note... its worth looking at the count up starting after the 2009 bottom. there are ways to come up with wave degree compliant alternatives to 5 up being done... have you considered?

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  6. In keeping with the $CPCE at a multi-year low, see here: http://schrts.co/eYnMXudS

    the CNN Business Fear and Greed Index is at a multi-year high:

    https://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/

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  7. Getting rich to the central bank's balance sheet.

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  8. Looking like an exhaustion gap with the top at the open

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    1. The gaps up have of late been routinely filled, so it will be interesting to see if we have an aytpical failure at an immediate gap fill with a lower intra-day low. We really should see a concomitant gap higer in VIX that sticks...

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  9. Here's the situation this morning: price did cross the 1.618 Fibonacci level. There could easily be a 0.382 - 0.50 decline x ((3)). If that occurs, then it is likely wave ((4)).

    https://invst.ly/p9fh3

    IF - on the other hand - the decline creates overlaps or a 0.62 retrace of the entire sequence, then we would look for wave C as a contracting diagonal.

    TJ

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    Replies
    1. Are you counting your proposed third wave as having an extended first of its move higher, or am I counting sub-waves incorrectly...?

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  10. There is a new post for the next day.

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    ReplyDelete