Monday, December 2, 2019

OKR

U.S. Debt Clock: $23.09 Trillion; prev $23.08
ES Daily Candle: Higher High, Lower Low, Lower Close: Outside Key Reversal (OKR) Day
Market Posture: Negative
Daily Swing Line: Neutral
Daily Bias: Up (Settle Above 18-day SMA)

Because of the differences in the way that the chart purveyor, below, accounts for the holidays there are some subtle differences between this chart and one based on the way the CME accounts for the holidays. In the CME chart, prices today settled above the 18-day SMA, not below it. Still, the essential ingredients are the same.

ES Futures - Daily - Outside Key Reversal Day

Regular readers will recall we said we expected the regular beginning-of-the-month inflows on Dec 2 which is the first trading day of the month. But, we didn't know if they would result in a new high or just a retrace wave. The new high did occur in last night's futures session, and the futures went on to make new all time highs. The new high did not happen in cash. In the futures, prices headed lower, tagged the 18-day SMA and went down to fill the previously open gap up in the futures from the Sunday night session on November 24th, now shown as the black cicle (Cash did not close it's gap as the session ended.)

Although it was the second largest down bar since the rise from October began, we don't want to make too much of it yet, as the advance decline ratio (without closing statistics yet) was still less than 1:4 which is not as impulsive as some 'kick-offs' are.

The primary purpose of the next chart is to show that the lower boundary of the daily channel we drew in the holiday posts is now being tested, and to show the divergences with the MACD involved at this time scale.

ES Futures - 5 Hr - Lower Testing Channel

Whether the channel breaks first or not, an upward retrace wave (at minimum) is expected at some point. 

Because of the rather precise timing with which this down draft occurred, we want to remind readers of the possible daily count shown over the holiday. Use this LINK.

Have a good start to the evening and the week.
TraderJoe

35 comments:

  1. IMHO, you can take the failure to break 3100 to the bank. Amazing how prescient price action around these round number levels has been. Joe's scenario of a b down, c up is right on track, and cash should ultimately also notch a new high as ES already has. Exquisite bear trap!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The simple truth about binary options which many of us do not know is the fact that it is mainly based on predictions. Without proper knowledge of what next can happen to the stock market, you are sure to lose your funds. That is why it is important to be tutored or mentored by a professional investor in binary options. During my weeks of being mentored by Mrs Patricia Morgan, I’ve learnt much and also succeeding in trades and was able to recover my lost funds. Feel free to contact her on patriciamorgan984 @ gmail .com for positive results or contact her on Whats App on +32460230365

      Delete
  2. Thanks, Joe.

    I have a question about wave degree. Would it allow a second wave longer in time than the first wave of the same degree?

    ReplyDelete
  3. ES overnight low 3101.62 adds weight to possible corrective b down. The 3100 round number is being defended successfully so far, which means despite appearance, CBs remain in control. An impulsive break of both 3100 AND 3000 in the cash session says otherwise, and that we have a likely top.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Falling wedge on yen since Aug broke out. Bodes well for gold too.

    ReplyDelete
  5. So, as an impulse with such a short 2, then 1 would be the extended wave, and wave 3 should not trade below 3,072. As an a-b-c, it could drop below 3,072.

    https://invst.ly/owlb2

    TJ

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Can only measure now as c = a.

      https://invst.ly/owlgl

      TJ

      Delete
  6. Think gold busted out of triangle for last move of b of y on 2hr.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Short term: there can now be a one-minute running triangle that looks like this:

    https://invst.ly/owngj

    Might lead to a new low.

    TJ

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yep!
      Looks like a fourth wave.
      Lower VIX higher on lower index low will signal an interim bottom of some sort.
      Any upward move that re-claims 3100 will suggest new highs ahead imho...

      Delete
    2. Status of potential triangle, which must form properly in every detail:

      https://invst.ly/ownxq

      TJ

      Delete
    3. Looks very good to me, with classic more complex C wave...

      Delete
    4. Potential triangle still holding, as follows.

      https://invst.ly/owogh

      Only alternate I can see (upward) would be some sort of diagonal, but not until or unless higher local highs.

      TJ

      Delete
    5. There is now a higher local high. Need to on watch for something else.

      Delete
  8. Now looking for 1) leading diagonal 'a' wave from the low, or 2) double combination. Not at the workstation at the moment so can't yet tell if there is an update degree violation, yet. Might be in time if not price.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Looks like move up to test gap...

    ReplyDelete
  10. Closest most bearish count looks to be doing C of running flat with B at low of 3069. Should not go above about 3100 if true.

    ReplyDelete
  11. With 2 nearly equal waves down, with a relatively shallow 4th, possible extended 5th down? (measure of 1-3 x 1.00 projected from 4)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If extended fifth, we should break 3000 on next move down...and that would be signal imho...

      Delete
    2. I think I stated that incorrectly. I believe the measure would be 1-3 x 1.618 from 4). Perhaps someone can check me on that.

      Delete
  12. C that is possible, with the 5-min chart being an expanding diagonal; regardless even if the pattern has no eye-appeal to me, it has the right measurements in time and price. They 'are' getting tiresome, however.

    https://invst.ly/owrd7

    TJ

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The expanding diagonal does not have to be ending, it could be a leading 'a' wave of a larger upward correction too. Either one might work.

      Delete
    2. Yes, all this leaves the door open for a ii/X that busts the 0-2 trend line, as usual.

      Delete
    3. fyi only ..this upward correction is already larger in price than the one from 10:00 to 14:45 yesterday. That doesn't definitely rule anything out, just yet.

      Delete
  13. Chris Ciovacco has an interesting take on the current equity fund outflows...
    https://www.investing.com/analysis/rare-equityfund-outflows-200489630

    ReplyDelete
  14. A new post has been started for the next day.

    ReplyDelete
  15. The simple truth about binary options which many of us do not know is the fact that it is mainly based on predictions. Without proper knowledge of what next can happen to the stock market, you are sure to lose your funds. That is why it is important to be tutored or mentored by a professional investor in binary options. During my weeks of being mentored by Mrs Patricia Morgan, I’ve learnt much and also succeeding in trades and was able to recover my lost funds. Feel free to contact her on patriciamorgan984 @ gmail .com for positive results or contact her on Whats App on +32460230365

    ReplyDelete