Wednesday, December 4, 2019

Three Down, Three Up

U.S. Debt Clock: $23.09 Trillion; prev $23.09
ES Daily Candle: Lower High, Higher Low, Higher Close: Inside Day
Market Posture: Negative
Daily Swing Line: Neutral
Daily Bias: Down (Settle Below 18-day SMA)

If yesterday ended what looked and measured like three-waves-down, then today certainly appeared as only three-waves up. The intraday chart of the ES 30-minute is below. 

ES Futures - 30 Min - Three Waves Down and Up

The retrace upwards did not take price beyond the 62% retracement which can be seen as a sign of some weakness. The up waves and down waves are roughly equal in the number of candles. Since wave ((C)) is longer than wave ((A)) in both series, it seems like the waves should be of the same degree. Therefore, it is possible to conclude a downward diagonal may be in the formative stages.

Time will tell. Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe

19 comments:

  1. Replies
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  2. Degree comes into play at all time frames...by definition...

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  3. Please note the EW anslysis states that up and down waves appear to be of equal degree, with the C waves ( as labelled ) longer than the A waves in each series, THEREFORE, IT IS POSSIBLE...etc. etc
    *SIGH*...hope that helps a little. Keep in mind TA is all about probabilities, NOT certainty. Of course there are other POSSIBILITIES. I read T.J.'s EW analysis because he is much better at this than I am...

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  4. Looks like the move back above 3100 was indeed short term bullish and we do now have a five wave structure off the recent lows. If you pay attention, you will find price action around these round numbers quite helpful. It has kept me on the right side of a very tough market for months. Not quite sure if my theory of CB buying is the reason, I just know it has been 100% correct so far.
    .

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  5. below 3107.....things can get interesting

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  6. The key is 3100. I think a breach is a necessary but not sufficient event to make the bearish case...3000 also MUST fall...or I am not buying it....

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    Replies
    1. Like clock-work, "buyers" stepped in at 3103.62 to hammer out a bottom. How can anybody miss it??!!

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  7. Everybody around you has a different set of keys

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  8. No doubt, and that's O.K, so long as folk are making their own rule-based decisions instead of allowing others to decide for them. I think this is why some folk get snarky when some of TJ's counts don't pan out.
    Looks like we had five up, so now a b or second wave...

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  9. Nice descending wedge in progress.

    https://i.imgur.com/qjDcnKb.png

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  10. Sideways consolidation...we are likely going higher...

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  11. There is a gap around SPY 315.4 and if not filled in the next couple of sessions, before this downdraft begins, will lend credence to a new high being made in first quarter of 2020 as opposed to most people's bearish view that the top is already in place for a while

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  12. Tachyone

    Do you have to reply to everyone who comments ?

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  13. If we have a second wave up, BOTH 3100 AND 3000 go next...

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  14. Looks like ZZ upward just about done..if not we take out this morning's high...

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  15. A new post has been started for the next day.

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