ES Daily Candle: Lower High, Equal Low, Higher Close: Inside Candle
Market Posture: Negative
Daily Swing Line: Higher
Daily Bias: Up (Settle Above 18-day SMA)
Resistance: Upper Daily Bollinger Band
There's no denying measurement. I routinely do them and have tried lots of measurements on the up waves in this Intermediate (B). In November 23rd post entitled The FED and the RED (which may be seen again at this LINK) I showed the possibility of an expanding diagonal wave that still had some more time and price to go. Here is an update on that chart.
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| ES Futures - Daily - A Clear 1.618 |
There just isn't any denying that a near-exact 1.618 projection can be made from wave (iii) versus wave (iv). And perhaps this is why we will see resistance to further upward price movement at this location. If so, I have not seen anyone else with this count. I developed it myself, and it can fit as part of the Intermediate (B) wave. IF it is a true ending diagonal (and not the interior triangle for the reasons of poor proportions I mentioned in the earlier post), then the entire diagonal would need to be retraced in less time than the diagonal took to build.
Expanding Diagonals like this often - not always - end before tagging their upper trend line as a sign of weakness. Wave (v) - in this case - would end Intermediate (B).
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
Bollinger Band sell signal today
ReplyDeleteI always stuck by this expanding count as the primary. The triangle X ending in Oct just doesn't fit well compared to other indicies
ReplyDeleteThis count is fighting so many other conflicting technical's such as a advance decline strength, lack of institutional selling, leadership strength, etc... There is just little evidence this market is ready to roll over into something significant.
ReplyDeleteI feel like this website has been throwing market tops into the wind for the last 10 months. Once the market tops, the website will claim it's EW success.
I just do not understand.
Todd, you must really not be making any effort to count waves intraday. If you were, you'd see hundreds of examples of 'B' waves that 'go over the top', create a 'false sense of security', and then just 'crumble before your eyes'. I have counted many - as the 'seeminly strong' 'B' wave gives way to the terror of the 'C' wave. The only thing your post tells me is you aren't practicing. If you were, you might say, 'possible' instead.
DeleteTJ
True. I am definitely not practicing. But, it's mostly because I haven't seen anyone very successful at it. I do see that OEW is working, but I think that kind of made up too.
DeleteAm I correct in thinking that if this is an expanding diagonal, that the move recently expected, down to c.3,000, then back up, wouldn't happen, and (as you say) we'd just get back down to c.2760, and probably in a hurry. That would fit with another EW count too btw (Peter Temple).
ReplyDeleteThanks.
Thanks.
Yes.
DeleteOk, thank you.
DeleteJoe,
ReplyDeleteThanks for the update. I see that for this count to work out, we need to see another down move to below 3154 then an up to above the recent high to create a ZZ. Otherwise, the current 5 wave up structure does not fit ED (3-3-3-3-3). Alternatively. we should see a down move to overlap (iii) then an up move in 5 to new ATH to complete the last 3 of the ED.
I was thinking that last 'three waves down' was b within (v) and the current up wave is c within (v). One reason for this is that Intermediate (B), itself, is already between 1.382 and 1.50 x Intermediate (A).
DeleteIf this is the case, then we are still missing at least one down and one up move (maybe more if c is subdivision) and a new ATH unless 5th truncation.
DeleteI think this is a gift!
ReplyDeleteI'd watch the black line in SPY/SPX, and see if the slow stochastic on this thirty minute time-frame rolls over.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/2jLyPLyg/
TJ
VIX has held steady to up during this SPX move up. This could also indicate that this market move up will be over soon.
ReplyDeleteA possible wedge, but a full reversal candle is needed, a break of the lower wedge line, and back test, as well as a turn down in the slow stochastic.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/obOdxDkF/
TJ
A close above 3200 imho signals at least one more wave higher...
ReplyDeleteJust a Fib time study I did on this chart, plus a racy weekly RSI (divergently lower than the Feb 18 peak), and a racy BB% reading too, also divergent.
ReplyDeleteThese fib periods have nailed previous peaks, and I've given (hopeful) target s for the initial dip, a rally, then a final low in March.
All pie in the sky perhaps?
https://www.tradingview.com/x/UW0hBd8x/
SPY 30-min: sitting on lower wedge line with a cross in slow stochastic, but need travel under wedge line and break of 80 in stochastic.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/5V00GmP0/
TJ
SPX has broken above a bullish trend line connecting 11/2002, 10/2007, 01/2018, 10/2018 peak in linear price chart. The last time a similar line got broken upward is back in 1995. The line got tested and held, the following bull market reached a high in 2000. That line is roughly 3100 this time around. If SPX back tested that line and the line holds, we could see SPX 10k in a few years. A weekly close below 3100 could see much lower price.
ReplyDeleteAnd OEW projected DOW 100k by 2032/33 back in 2017.
ReplyDeleteI wonder when this blog will become a bit more bullish. it's obvious that the bearish ideas are not working... we are in an uptrend and this rally is not a b wave... hopefully TJ will show us a new count soon. while I respect his work a lot, he can no longer ignore the strength in this market....
ReplyDeletethis said, i think we'll go a bit higher, then i'm expecting a pullback to 3100 or so... then up & away +3400...
best wishes
KAVIAAR
A new post has been started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteI believe the magic number will be 3303. If SPX is able to move above that number, the up move from 12/2018 low will be more than 1.618 in length than the down move length. B wave rarely is 1.618 times longer than A wave.
ReplyDeleteI'm happy to share my experience so far in trading binary options.
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I'm happy to share my experience so far in trading binary options.
ReplyDeleteI have been losing and finding it difficult to make profit in trading for long until i meet [Robert Seaman] who help me and gave me the right strategy and winning signals to trade and also i was able to get all my lost fund back from greedy brokers through Him. now i can make a profit of 12000USD weekly through his amazing masterclass strategy feel free to email him on: Robertseaman939@gmail.com or WhatsApp: +44 7466 770724