|NQ 100 Futures - Two Day OHLC - Best Count|
On the left-hand-side of the chart, readers will note the overall count up from last December to the May high is not impulsive. I have tried many. many ways to count it as impulsive in the past, and I took a swing at it again today. I simply can not find a good way to do it. Believe me, if I could count it as impulsive I would gladly publish it.
To prove this point, if you look within the (a) and (c) waves up from December to Minor W, you will see impulsive counts. Further, if you will look on the right hand side of the chart, you will see the recent minute (a) wave is also counted impulsively. The key is without this impulsive count, then wave iv within the new minute (a) becomes too long in time, and creates a degree violation. The reason it works here is that minuet iv can have any time relationship to minuet ii because they are of the same degree.
Now, that should mean we are in a minute (b) wave downward. So far, there have been three waves down. But that seems too short in time to be the completed sequence. Again, if you look to the left of the chart and count the bars, the minute (b) wave within minor W took at least 62% of the time of minute (a) wave.
So what could happen? Unfortunately for those who want a definitive answer, we are again dealing with a "B" wave. And "B" waves can be literally anything from a flat, to a triangle, to a double or triple zigzag downward. Price simply has not yet come back down to test the breakout of the triangle yet. Perhaps it will. It is definitely not required to, but it could. How it gets there - if it gets there - is a darn good question.
If you are a student of Elliott Wave work, you know that this is how Elliott Wave logic works. "B" waves are notoriously difficult to predict - about the worse that there is. But a double-zigzag, triple zigzag or double-combination like a flat-x-zigzag could both waste some more time and provide for the downside test. So, we will take the count day-by-day and do our level best.
One item readers will note is that even given the flurry of new all-time-highs the Elliott Wave Oscillator remains stuck on a divergence, and now is even declining. That should be telling us something.
Have a great rest of the weekend.