ES Daily Candle: Lower High, Lower Low, Higher Close: Trend Day
Market Posture: Neutral-to-Negative
Daily Swing Line: Down
Daily Bias: Up (Settle Above 18-day SMA)
ES Futures and cash S&P500 made a lower low day, which was more significant in the overnight session. Prices reversed upward considerably on news that some portions of tariffs might be delayed. We've heard that before. Do they mean it this time? Did they release that news this morning just to blunt the news story about the agreement reached on Articles of Impeachment? Such a cat-and-mouse game. Prices went down to pierce the 18-day SMA where a battle was fought, and prices have settled higher in the futures. So, even though the swing line is down it is neutered by the close being over the 18-day SMA as in the chart below.
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| ES Futures - Daily - Battle at the 18-day SMA |
The daily slow stochastic is still up in over-bought territory, and my understanding is that the FED meeting is tomorrow. Given the propensity for volatility on that day, the best options are that if the market wants to make a new higher all-time-high it would do it with a double-zizag wave for minuet (b) of minute ((b)). If - on the other hand - the market is disappointed in the FED actions and downside prices resume, today might have started a diagonal lower.
Particularly in the NQ futures, there appear to be only three waves down, so far, followed by an overlap upward.
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
Short term, readers might like to pay attention to this structure on the ES 30-min chart.
ReplyDeletehttps://tvc-invdn-com.akamaized.net/data/tvc_e7f095b25e3433f07259c540cc1e61ae.png
TJ
..broke the lower trend line, and the green up-bar low.
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DeleteOnce again, impulsive looking candles down in RUT futures.
ReplyDeleteIt is really amazing how these violent moves keep getting arrested and turned into big three wave moves. The CBs appear to have enough buying power to arrest impulsive declines, but not enough to issue in true impulsive upward waves, hence all the over-lapping series of three wave moves we have been seeing...how long can this go on?!
Reminder FOMC decision at 14:00 ET.
ReplyDeleteStill tracking RUT futures and so far looks like impulse down and zig zag underway for a second wave up...could small cap be leading the way?
ReplyDeleteHere's the ES futures 10 minutes after the FED statement. News conference to go, yet.
ReplyDeletehttps://tvc-invdn-com.akamaized.net/data/tvc_aa3a1d8da0ff77a078de0d62eba6b543.png
TJ
Risk parity trade remains under pressure with VIX holding above 15. Don't let the apparently calm waters fool you...something's gotta give...I won't be surprised by another massive shadow soon that gets violently rejected...
ReplyDeleteA count like this relies on where the "5's" are. It could go higher but is not required to. Wave ((5)) is already longer than wave ((3)).
ReplyDeletehttps://tvc-invdn-com.akamaized.net/data/tvc_a7c7cc6bfb9447cae7a6219e67e7c2fb.png
TJ
There is a new post for the next day.
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I'm happy to share my experience so far in trading binary options.
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