ES Daily Candle: Lower High, Lower Low, Higher Close: Trend Day
Market Posture: Neutral-to-Negative
Daily Swing Line: Down
Daily Bias: Up (Settle Above 18-day SMA)
ES Futures and cash S&P500 made a lower low day, which was more significant in the overnight session. Prices reversed upward considerably on news that some portions of tariffs might be delayed. We've heard that before. Do they mean it this time? Did they release that news this morning just to blunt the news story about the agreement reached on Articles of Impeachment? Such a cat-and-mouse game. Prices went down to pierce the 18-day SMA where a battle was fought, and prices have settled higher in the futures. So, even though the swing line is down it is neutered by the close being over the 18-day SMA as in the chart below.
|ES Futures - Daily - Battle at the 18-day SMA|
The daily slow stochastic is still up in over-bought territory, and my understanding is that the FED meeting is tomorrow. Given the propensity for volatility on that day, the best options are that if the market wants to make a new higher all-time-high it would do it with a double-zizag wave for minuet (b) of minute ((b)). If - on the other hand - the market is disappointed in the FED actions and downside prices resume, today might have started a diagonal lower.
Particularly in the NQ futures, there appear to be only three waves down, so far, followed by an overlap upward.
Have a good start to the evening.