ES Daily Candle: Higher High, Higher Low, Higher Close: Trend Day
Market Posture: Neutral-to-Negative
Daily Swing Line: Neutral
Daily Bias: Up (Settle Above 18-day SMA)
Yesterday we had counted three waves up - with the waves presented. Last night's overnight higher high in the futures, and the subsequent morning higher high in the cash indexes added an additional wave. As ugly as it is (chart below), we should err on the side of "five up" for this wave. Being so ugly, it might just be an "A" wave up. By ugly, I just mean the measurements are not quite correct. In particular, wave ((3)) came close, but did not meet or surpass 1.618 x ((1)). And then ((5)) is a bit shorter than ((1)).
|ES Futures - 30 Min - Fifth Wave Up and 38% Retrace|
After last night's wave, there was a quick 38% retrace - which is a sufficient retrace in price, but it might not yet be sufficient in time. In other words a b/ii wave could take longer in time. By showing the time rulers, we are showing this up wave has already take more time than the the down wave. So, this should be a part of a corrective sequence upward.
But there are ways minute ((b)) could have another wave 'over the top' with a compound flat, double combination or other ugly ((b)) wave. Yet, this wave upward could also make a "deep retrace" wave characteristic of a diagonal that makes lower waves, instead. There are too many ways for the waves after a "three-wave-down" sequence to play out. For this reason, the count must absolutely remain tentative. We will count what we see only, until the situation clears a bit; predictions will be avoided. And the market posture has shifted back to neutral-to-negative because of the "five-up" sequence, as ugly as it is. At some point, there should be at least one more five-up sequence.
It would be nice to be more definitive - but those of you familiar with Elliott wave know that this situation occurs from time-to-time.
Have a good start to the evening.