ES Daily Candle: Higher High, Higher Low, Higher Close: Trend Candle
Market Posture: Neutral
Daily Swing Line: Higher
Daily Bias: Up (Settle Above 18-day SMA)
Resistance: Upper Daily Bollinger Band
With approximately 100 candles on a four-hourly chart, price - in the chart below - can be seen to be nearing a 1.618 extension of a first wave higher.
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| ES Futures - 4 Hr - Nearing 1.618 |
All of this is occurring while price is above the 0 - 2 trend line, the solid brown line shown. So, according to The Eight Fold Path Method, the up move must be respected as a third wave. While there are divergences, the Elliott Wave Oscillator has not closed in on the zero line, yet, and would be expected to around 120 candles, possibly in a fourth wave.
A down wave can not likely be ascertained, not even a fourth wave, until the 0 - 2 trend line is broken. A fourth wave might be a 38% retrace of wave ((3)) when wave ((3)) has concluded. As a result, my market posture has gone to just neutral, from neutral-to-negative.
Have a continued good holiday period!
TraderJoe
Yep. Flagging price action in ES with upside target at just about 3350...getting close!
ReplyDelete..just to clarify, did you mean 3,350? or was it a 3,250 typo?
Delete3250. Thanks!
ReplyDeleteThanks TJ its been a wonderful year learning from your work. Best to you and yours for this holiday season.
ReplyDeleteTJ,
ReplyDeleteDo you have a yearly candlestick chart for the S&P? If the market can finish strong for the year, my guess would be several more years of upside
$CPCE is as low as I have seen it in a long time, if not ever.
ReplyDeletethanks joe.
ReplyDeletewhen was your last posture neutral as it is now? happy new year in advance
Hi Marc & Happy New Year, too. Only 'neutral' for a potential fifth wave, and possibly one larger fourth wave and vth wave of (a) of Y - if they materialize. They don't have too - a diagonal could be created. Have to take it step-by-step. I really didn't state much of a market posture in early posts. I'm concentrating on doing that more now.
DeleteTJ
thats helpful. on another note... its worth looking at the count up starting after the 2009 bottom. there are ways to come up with wave degree compliant alternatives to 5 up being done... have you considered?
DeleteIn keeping with the $CPCE at a multi-year low, see here: http://schrts.co/eYnMXudS
ReplyDeletethe CNN Business Fear and Greed Index is at a multi-year high:
https://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/
Getting rich to the central bank's balance sheet.
ReplyDeleteLooking like an exhaustion gap with the top at the open
ReplyDeleteThe gaps up have of late been routinely filled, so it will be interesting to see if we have an aytpical failure at an immediate gap fill with a lower intra-day low. We really should see a concomitant gap higer in VIX that sticks...
DeleteHere's the situation this morning: price did cross the 1.618 Fibonacci level. There could easily be a 0.382 - 0.50 decline x ((3)). If that occurs, then it is likely wave ((4)).
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/p9fh3
IF - on the other hand - the decline creates overlaps or a 0.62 retrace of the entire sequence, then we would look for wave C as a contracting diagonal.
TJ
Are you counting your proposed third wave as having an extended first of its move higher, or am I counting sub-waves incorrectly...?
Delete..yes..correct.
DeleteThere is a new post for the next day.
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