The chart below clearly shows that GOLD futures are in a shallow up channel since the 2016 low. The channel is shown below as the solid green parallel lines.
The (X) wave triangle - shown as the contracting dotted green lines - is clearly longer in time than the (W) wave, so the (X) wave and the (W) wave must most-likely be of the same wave degree. Since the recent high, there appears to be a consolidation (bull flag) which is resolving to the upside. Notice how, if this is labeled as a "b" wave, it would match the prior "b" wave down - of (W) - to a very similar number of points, shown by the down sloping red arrows. As a (Y) wave, it has already exceeded the (W) wave, so there is no truncation. Further, as the blue rectangles show, the (Y) wave is already as long in time as the (W) wave. This is a good indication that these two waves should also be of a similar degree.
If the market breaks below the latest b wave fractal, it would be an excellent indication of a trend change.
Have a really excellent holiday.
TraderJoe
P.S. This is the second posting this holiday, and, if you have not already read the first one, you may wish to.
Sir can you help with oil count. Thank you
ReplyDeleteThe unknown account is not replied to. Select a user name and log in.
DeleteCan you please help with oil count. its very confusing. any help will be greatly appreiciated Sir
ReplyDeleteFractals get Brent to aprox usd 130 Feb-Mar during the aprox 50 percent stock crash. Looks like crash will be starting about Jan 7-8th looking at Silver if it falls back to about 16.90 by Jan 6th.
DeleteThe daily chart below needs careful examination to see if c = a, or if a third wave begins. I am very certain there is a contracting leading diagonal on the way up. These are 'usually' but not always "A" waves, so the 'a' is listed first in the count. Downward overlap at $58 would be telling.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/p8uvp
There isn't a good sign of divergence yet.
TJ
>P.S. This is the second posting this weekend, and, if you have not already read the first one, you may wish too.
ReplyDeleteIt's Thursday Joe, not the weekend? Plus it's not the second post. Plus, you misspelled 'to' as 'too'.
I reckon you've been enjoying some tasty beverages!
Good for you, enjoy the rest.
Apparently it's Wednesday! I am sober however.
DeleteThanks. Corrected, and I wiped up the eggnog too.
DeleteMerry Christmas, Joe. Discovering your blog is one of many reasons to give thanks for in 2019. Peace and health to you in the new year!
ReplyDeleteThanks and same to you HFj.
DeleteHappy holidays Joe!
ReplyDeleteI have a question about 8 fold path method. When time frame is greater than daily, ES and SPX is almost the same. But if the time frame is less than 1 day, then the Futures will have roughly 3 times more bars than cash and it will sometimes generate very different count. If in conflict, which one should be respected more in terms of count?
Thanks!
As I wrote in yesterday's post, most technicians use the 'daily' as the minimum time-frame to incorporate opinions from around the world in their trading. Any other smaller time frame chops the 'voting' process into time frames that are inconsistent with respect to market participants. For example, in the U.S. stock market, London closes at our 10:30 - 11:30 am (depending on daylight savings time). As the Europeans start to go bed, we lose their votes in the mid-morning and the afternoon. And certainly a similarity exists for Asians buying U.S. stocks. Therefore, most technicians take the daily time frame to get the most consistent voting results possible. Then, they drill down to a smaller time frame - such as 4 hrs - to better time entries and exits. In terms of counting - all time frames matter, but clearly market momentum and direction is best indicated by the opening and closing candles and/or complete daily reversal candles. Hope this helps.
DeleteThanks, ET.
DeleteIn the ES hourly futures, a count like this 'might' work out for a ivth wave. There is some nice hourly geometry here, and still inside of 1.382 external retracement on (a), down.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/p8xx3
TJ
ET, Wanted to wish you the Happiest of Holidays and a very sincere thanks for all your work.
ReplyDeleteThanks BBR .. Happy Holidays to you, too!
DeleteMassive order on SPY 321 SPY puts with March 31 2020 expiration.
ReplyDeleteO.I. now at 18K+...
Correction...SPY CALLS..
ReplyDeleteET, happy holidays and thank you for all the time and effort you put in to this blog. A diversion if I might - I am finally able to log in through my google account but the problem I'm having now is that when I refresh the page for new comments, I somehow am getting logged out. I then have to clear my history in my browser and go through the log in process again. I'm using Safari 13.0.4. Any suggestions would be appreciated.
ReplyDeleteI'd try Firefox, Edge or Chrome and see if you have the same issue. Glad you made it back, and Happy Holidays, too!
DeleteMAYBE that's the end of the up move (or early a.m. Friday). I had this afternoon in wave 4 from Tuesday. NYA and DJI broke the uptrend lines from DEC 2nd and back tested just before the close.
ReplyDeletelooking at my 30 min cash chart, I see wave 4 followed by
ReplyDelete5 waves up.
A new post has been started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteI'm happy to share my experience so far in trading binary options.
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