ES Daily Candle: Higher High, Higher Low, Higher Close: Doji Candle
Market Posture: Neutral-to-Negative
Daily Swing Line: Higher
Daily Bias: Up (Settle Above 18-day SMA)
Resistance: Upper Daily Bollinger Band
The overnight futures and the cash market made a new higher high, then the futures could be counted as five-waves, down, which was done in real time today. On a short term basis, the ES half-hourly chart looks like this.
|ES Futures - Half Hourly - New High and Five Down|
The channel was broken lower, and the down wave is longer than ((2)) in price length. So, a new location for ((4)) would be the alternate only at this point or it would seem to violate degree principles.
As per the discussion yesterday, the daily chart looks like this with an extended first wave of a. This is the only way I can see to keep the degrees of the waves correct relative to each other with the waves made so far.
|ES Futures - Daily - Extended First Wave (x1)|
And, as long as the channel is holding, it is also the only way I can see to keep all of wave 3 above a line from 0 through 2. If wave 4 is beginning, it could take the form of a zigzag or a triangle - and the triangle 'might' be more likely over the holiday. (Please note in the bottom chart I just used some relative wave symbols to clarify which waves are larger. Wave iii from the upper chart is wave 3 in the lower chart.)
Remember to check the exchange schedule for trading hours during the festivities. Get some rest, have some fun & enjoy the holiday!