ES Daily Candle: Lower High, Lower Low, Lower Close: Trend Day
Market Posture: Negative
Daily Swing Line: Neutral
Daily Bias: Down (Settle Below 18-day SMA)
With yesterday's key reversal day, the algo's wasted no time in targeting the lower daily Bollinger Band, after only a mere 23.6% upward retrace.
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| ES Futures - Daily - Hit on Lower Band |
With such a small retrace overnight, we initially said it could only be a first extended wave type of the impulse variety or just a simpler a,b,c sequence. For the first extended wave count, the third wave should have remained shorter than the first. It did not, and so the three down waves count currently as a,b,c.
After hitting the lower daily band, prices then began a rebound which initially looked like part of a triangle, but then we warned - if it busted higher instead of lower - it could be an upward diagonal. Here is the intraday chart.
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| ES Futures - 5 Min - Upward Correction |
The intraday expanding diagonal proceeded from about the open until about 13:45, and may very well be an a wave as shown. Following that upward wave, there was likely a downward b wave in three waves that just barely broke the lower diagonal trend line, but just enough to recognize it. And following the b wave, there is a clear five-wave sequence upward which is likely either i of c, or all of the c wave, upward. Since there is a five-wave sequence up following the expanding diagonal, then the diagonal itself may be said to have been confirmed as a leading diagonal. The b wave retrace is not very deep, and that is what may make the diagonal structure just an a wave.
At this point we can do little more than question as follows: a) is the larger minute ((b)) wave down done at this location? If so, it would count as w-x-y. If not, with only three-waves down, it is possible a larger diagonal is forming downward, and b) is ii of c over yet? It would be remarkably short in price length if it were - but we have seen stranger. Regardless, we have shown the invalidation for a second wave of c at the dotted orange line.
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
it sure is going to be fascinating to see of an all-out war commences between the CTAs and the CBs! Somebody tried to hammer out an early bottom this morning and got squashed...
ReplyDeleteThe simple truth about binary options which many of us do not know is the fact that it is mainly based on predictions. Without proper knowledge of what next can happen to the stock market, you are sure to lose your funds. That is why it is important to be tutored or mentored by a professional investor in binary options. During my weeks of being mentored by Mrs Patricia Morgan, I’ve learnt much and also succeeding in trades and was able to recover my lost funds. Feel free to contact her on patriciamorgan984 @ gmail .com for positive results or contact her on Whats App on +32460230365
DeleteThe simple truth about binary options which many of us do not know is the fact that it is mainly based on predictions. Without proper knowledge of what next can happen to the stock market, you are sure to lose your funds. That is why it is important to be tutored or mentored by a professional investor in binary options. During my weeks of being mentored by Mrs Patricia Morgan, I’ve learnt much and also succeeding in trades and was able to recover my lost funds. Feel free to contact her on patriciamorgan984 @ gmail .com for positive results or contact her on Whats App on +32460230365
DeleteI have been investigating how the gold miners behaved in 2008 in the lead-up-too and after the market crash. If the gold miners quickly ascend to their former peak, that corresponded with a 3 of 3 of 1 off the top in the SPX. The miners look to be potentially starting to rally toward their top.
ReplyDeleteSo my question is: Is there a possibility that what we have seen yesterday and today is nested 1s and 2s?
Of course, a severe 5th wave down of an expanding leading diagonal could perform a similar result to a 3 of 3 down. It might be a good "rhyme" to the price action of a 3 of 3 that was seen 2008.
Just some observations and musings
Looks like we are finishing C of an ED?
ReplyDeleteThe daily Algo on SPX is in the process of flipping to the sell
ReplyDeleteside. I think this could be 2 or b of the A wave of C. If the Jobs report
is taken as negative......could get ugly very quickly.
Good news is Mr Beeks has the crop report for OJ.
Failure to take out 3000 was a cautionary note. The move back above 3100 is fairly conclusive. The CBs have once again magically negated what appeared to be an impulsive move down. The pattern has become crystal clear over the past many months on how they trade around the round numbers...nice bear trap....as anticipated...
ReplyDeleteYou flipped 180 degrees TWICE in a day.
DeleteMust be cool to always be right.
Have I? I am certainly not infallible but I do think I made it clear that my short term view was predicated on how price traded around 3100 and 3000...both.
DeleteA close above 3100 is short term bullish, a pattern that has been established for months now it seems to me...
Yesterday the close was below 3,100, yet today you're bullish again.
DeleteYou may not realise it, but you are contradicting yourself. Essentially you're flipping with price action, the EW way.
Flipping with price action??!!
DeleteHave you lost your mind my friend? Mr. Market is ALWAYS right!!
BTW, it is true that the close was BELOW 3100, but it was ABOVE 3000...go back and read what I actually said...
DeleteSPX needs to take out 3125 to turn bullish. We probably will see a Fed rate cut first before we see Phase 1 deal with Chinese. That may imply another leg down before Fed meeting to get the rate cut.
ReplyDeleteWe need to see if this thing can hold 3100 - 3105 on the downside, and make a new high. If so, it can be a larger a/i wave up. Glad we got the direction right yesterday, but the count is going to be a bit tentative in here. On the upside, we have not hit the 62% retrace yet. And the second up wave is inside of iii = 1.62 x i, or c = 1.62 x a.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/oxebo
TJ
ES and SPX have the lower local low.
DeleteYep!
DeleteThe fact we have be unable to reach.62 is bearish.
ReplyDeleteUsually in extensions.382 and .5 are where the market will stop
if it is going to continue the direction it was going (down in this case)
My cycles say down into the end of the year.
There were quite a few cluster of cycle turn dates at the end of November. It is entirely possible that in an era of CB largesse such cycles are no longer reliable...
DeleteSomeone who believes the game they are playing
Deletein is rigged......is a fool to be involved.
Not necessarily. If you concluded for example, that CBs showed their hand by relentless purchases around round numbers you simply follow their lead. Just because the game is rigged does not mean on cannot use that to one's advantage...what IS foolish is refusing to recognize HOW the game is rigged and responding accordingly...
DeleteOh, so you know what the CB's are doing...??
DeleteWhy are you here ? Sounds like you know exactly what will happen. You must be very wealthy.
I am not here to have TJ tell me where the market is going. I am here to try and learn how EW can be applied to tell us WHY the market goes where it does.
DeleteWhy are you here, may I ask?
Move back up to challenge open gap quite typical and I still think how we close is key. My conviction remains that the first wave down after a top is clinched is going to burn through multiple S/R levels.
ReplyDeleteThe move back above 3100 in my view argues for at least one more high.
If VIX can close below 15.13, it will generate a buy signal.
ReplyDeleteIn ES 15-min futures, possible to count a-b-c, up, as follows.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/oxi5i
It's possible there is one more internal high in ((C)).
TJ
Looks to me like we just got more downward overlap, in the internal wave v.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/oxig1
TJ
Looks like a failure swing candle at the high.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/oxjib
TJ
ES follow-through candle lower, and broker quotes show overlap on i, up.
DeleteTJ
IF it is a fractal of previous smaller correction, next target should be 3060, followed by 3110 and from there target down towards 2980 or lower.
DeleteA new post has been started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteThe simple truth about binary options which many of us do not know is the fact that it is mainly based on predictions. Without proper knowledge of what next can happen to the stock market, you are sure to lose your funds. That is why it is important to be tutored or mentored by a professional investor in binary options. During my weeks of being mentored by Mrs Patricia Morgan, I’ve learnt much and also succeeding in trades and was able to recover my lost funds. Feel free to contact her on patriciamorgan984 @ gmail .com for positive results or contact her on Whats App on +32460230365
ReplyDelete