Close analysis of the following factors suggests the count in the chart, below, is applicable, yet, still within the Intermediate (B) wave, upward.
- Length of the waves in price
- Length of the waves in time
- Position of initial diagonal
- Position of largest triangle in time
- Alternation regarding potential diagonals
- Fibonacci retracement levels
- Channeling
- Support and Resistance
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| ES Futures - Daily - Probable Up Count |
The current (b) wave which appears as a potential diagonal would not alternate well in this position as a fifth wave or a (c) wave. Therefore, it is likely one of those (b) waves that is really a triple zigzag, and it follows a three-wave (a) wave down which is too short in time to really correct the up waves.
If this current down wave breaks the mid-line of the channel (shown as the dotted line) then it might be assumed that the minuet (c) wave of the minute ((b)) wave would be underway to possibly make a 0.382 x ((a)) wave, with a minute ((c)) wave up to follow. Then, price would likely find support at prior highs, and possibly take a stab at making new all-time-highs with potential divergences with indicators like the advance-decline line, etc.
There are other ways this could happen, but for right now, this count seems to fit with the W-X-Y scenario from last December's low. The count might also generate a lot of bearishness on the break of the channel lower, yet the minute ((c)) wave need not trade all that much significantly higher than present levels.
Have a great rest of the weekend.
TraderJoe
Astute observation. Some EW analysts are now modifying their mid-term counts with extremely bullish herd sentiment and floating counts calling for a shallow correction on the way to 3500. I have been wondering how Mr. Market would ensure few traders are positioned short ahead of what looks to be a substantial downward correction below last December's lows. A minute C of a minor Y wave up would exquisitely accomplish such a task.
ReplyDeleteThis is where I think good EW analysis truly shines - rather than specious claims by some about the method being "predictive", imho it allows one to make rational conclusions about "probable" market direction when when sentiment and other technical indicators are combined with wave analysis. I think the move down, when it finally arrives is going to stun a few folk.
We have had important lows struck in January the last few years.
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DeleteIf (b) has completed, it appears it will take an external retrace of about 2.00 to reach your (c) of ((b)). Should this occur, it appears that ((c)) will need to reach around 3128+/- to equal ((a)) x .382, and around 3193+/- to equal ((a)) x .618. (assuming my math is close).
ReplyDeleteMy question is this:
Should ((c)) fall within this range, it would appear to be a truncated zigzag. If so, this would suggest I believe that this Y leg is a leg (or component of a leg) of a larger triangle. If Y is a component of a leg, could this suggest that (B) itself is a leg of a large triangle in progress? Im trying to better understand Neely on this truncated zigzag subject.
Thanks!
Hopefully this chart will help to convey what Im trying to clarify in my mind regarding Neely's truncated zigzags. Thanks in advance for the help.
Deletehttps://imgur.com/5rXsBeM
This upward Intermediate (B) wave would be a double zigzag, not a single truncated zigzag. There is a difference in the level of complexity being described. Does Neely talk about triangles in the case of the double zigzag? I do not believe so.
DeleteMy fractal says s&p 3000 maybe as fast as 3rd or 4th. Correction or new high Dec 10, then it will start to come dwn fast with the brunt of the crash from Jan 1st. My target is about 1650 on S&P500 before Jan ends. Btc $855. Usd index 78. Thanx Joe for doing a Great job with EWT.
ReplyDeleteI think your crazy if you think SP 1650 by end of Jan. 200DMA rising. AD line at new high. The only top in hx of market where ADline wasnt at new high was 1929. Interesting if you look at the market now we are at the same juncture where the baby boomers were in mid 80s similar to where millennials are now. Fundamentally bull can last alot longer and monthly and yearly MACD now positve. Highly doubt crash. Maybe correction since cyclical low due later Dec or Jan which will be good buying opportunity.
Deleteany chance on oil count thks
ReplyDeleteIf we are in a the middle of a an expanded flat for a larger fourth wave, completion of the current B wave should lead to a C wave down in five waves that take us below the Dec A wave low with a target around 2120. If this market is instead putting in a major top, all bets are off with regard to how far and fast prices could plunge. While I favor the former, the fact is that we have broken the bull trend-line from the 2009 lows and have been back-testing for months. Once we exceed my original 3060 target, I figured we would reac 3160. Few folk pay attention to time, as well as price fib relationships, which is often quite useful when price fibs fail....
ReplyDeleteWell. Here is the first-of-the-month money from pension funds, 401k's, company bonuses, dividend reinvestment plans, etc.
ReplyDeleteI am a bit surprised at the attribution of early month ramps to employee related inflows. After all, baby boomers have been retiring at a daily reported rate of of 10K. I have not checked the numbers but one would expect that this would substantially reduce market inflows from this source.
Delete..just because they retire, does not take their investment roll-overs out of the market.
DeleteTrue. We do have to take into account MRDs. The outflows the last several months have been noteworthy...
DeleteES hit 3157.62 overnight; a tag og 3160 would have been great but not so far. A move below 3144.38 gives five off the high. Calling tops in an era of CB equity price control has been a fool's errand. I concluded long ago when they lost control the market would not simply correct, but it will collapse. Who is left to cover and put in a market floor?
ReplyDeleteIF we are done, we take out 3100 today on high volume imho...
There appears to have been a change of degree. Now it's up to see if a decent retrace wave holds.
ReplyDeleteLooks like the 3167 extension will not be touched.....
ReplyDeleteBack down thru 3081 the lower extension should open the trap door.
That open futures up gap @ 3112 I highlighted from the Sunday night Nov. 24th session has been filled. As I said, futures gaps don't tend to stay open as long as the gaps on cash can.
ReplyDeleteAn observation (fwiw):
ReplyDeleteHealthcare (2nd largest sector of 11 sectors) - the Dec-Mar initial leg up and the current leg up from early Oct are 5 cents from perfect symmetry (based upon my feed).
This makes for a nice parallel channel connecting Dec and Oct lows.
Interesting math on SPX: 3027.98(7/26)-2728.81(6/3)+2855.94(10/3) = 3155.11 On 11/27, the high is 3154.28 and it is within 1pt of 3155.11. And the number of days between the high and low are within 2 days!
DeleteRedcloud:
DeletePerhaps this previously posted chart is what you're seeing?
https://imgur.com/zoygDrn
GreyWaver,
DeleteThanks for the chart. It is exactly what I am looking.
Yep!
ReplyDeleteFifth down should blow through 3100 and price should remain below until correction complete.
SPX needs to be below 3091 to turn the chart bearish. We are still in higher-low and higher high sequence!
ReplyDeleteThere is a new post for the next day.
ReplyDeleteThe simple truth about binary options which many of us do not know is the fact that it is mainly based on predictions. Without proper knowledge of what next can happen to the stock market, you are sure to lose your funds. That is why it is important to be tutored or mentored by a professional investor in binary options. During my weeks of being mentored by Mrs Patricia Morgan, I’ve learnt much and also succeeding in trades and was able to recover my lost funds. Feel free to contact her on patriciamorgan984 @ gmail .com for positive results or contact her on Whats App on +32460230365
ReplyDelete