Wednesday, November 20, 2019

As Convoluted as the Impeachment Hearings

U.S. Debt Clock: $23.06 Trillion; prev $23.05
ES Daily Candle: Lower High, Lower Low, Lower Close: Trend Day
Market Posture: Neutral-to-negative and Probing
Daily Swing Line: Mixed
Daily Bias: Up (Settle Above 18-day SMA)

Prices appeared to start lower from the primary count provided yesterday. If there are questions as to the longer term primary count and alternate, please see yesterday's post.

ES Futures - Daily - Still Embedded

The ES daily slow stochastic had initially lost its embedded status during today's decline which was brought about by tariff news. However, the afternoon rally brought it back above the 80 level - thus, by the settle, it remains embedded, as shown above.

Using either futures or cash, there are ways to count the downward move in each as only three waves lower. And the afternoon up move counts clearly as five waves. So, it is possible - again - that only a diagonal downward or a sideways triangle is being made. Below are the waves made yesterday and today on the hourly chart.

ES Futures - 1 Hr - Three Waves Down

Today closed an hourly up gap on the cash market, and convincingly overlapped downward the up wave apex at 3,111. Additional waves are needed to clarify the fuller nature of the three-wave down move.

Again, so far, it looks like if we are starting downward, it would be via a diagonal. If there is further up movement, it would likely be via a triangle but there are way too few waves to assess either at this point.

Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe


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31 comments:

  1. TachyonNovember 20, 2019 at 6:19 PM

    Extremely rare multiple gaps lower across index futures...harbinger...?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Tahmere HarrisDecember 17, 2019 at 1:51 AM

      The simple truth about binary options which many of us do not know is the fact that it is mainly based on predictions. Without proper knowledge of what next can happen to the stock market, you are sure to lose your funds. That is why it is important to be tutored or mentored by a professional investor in binary options. During my weeks of being mentored by Mrs Patricia Morgan, I’ve learnt much and also succeeding in trades and was able to recover my lost funds. Feel free to contact her on patriciamorgan984 @ gmail .com for positive results or contact her on Whats App on +32460230365

      Delete
  2. scoutNovember 20, 2019 at 8:59 PM

    Is it possible that your b is 1 of a diagonal down, circle B is 2, C is i and a is ii? That would put AH action in wave 3. Diagonal down would be contracting and has the proper overlap to my eyes.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. scoutNovember 20, 2019 at 10:03 PM

      Sorry ES and would result in degree violation. Wouldn't have made sense with spx anyway.

      Delete
  3. Gary MorganNovember 21, 2019 at 6:57 AM

    >if we are starting downward, it would be via a diagonal. If there is further up movement, it would likely be via a triangle but there are way too few waves to assess either at this point.

    It is always a coin flip.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. pbeckNovember 21, 2019 at 7:22 AM

      Try as I might, I cannot seem to figure out what value you are attempting to take from or bring to this blog.

      Delete
    2. Elliott_TraderNovember 21, 2019 at 9:51 AM

      @dum .. you are, in fact, 'dumb' in regards to the word 'always'. There are very, very few 'always' when dealing with probabilities.

      Delete
    3. TachyonNovember 21, 2019 at 10:07 AM

      I have seen informed posts from you in the past. Why so morose of late?

      Delete
  4. TachyonNovember 21, 2019 at 9:01 AM

    Looking strictly at the price action, I would not be at all surprised if we have one more wave higher. Tremendous amounts of cash are still being dumped into the market and the failure of the market to take out multiple former S/R levels, despite the penetration of one downside gap, suggests to me the CBs are still firmly in control. Once more into the breach methinks....

    ReplyDelete
  5. sammyNovember 21, 2019 at 10:20 AM

    180 & 240 min Algos on sell...likely the daily takes another day or two
    to turn down. Many indicators are rolling over and a backtest to the upchannel trendline looks complete.

    ReplyDelete
  6. sammyNovember 21, 2019 at 10:31 AM

    Next important support....3081. Thats the 1.236 extension of A.

    As it worked out the B wave extension was 1.314 X A ---- Pi cool

    ReplyDelete
  7. Elliott_TraderNovember 21, 2019 at 11:09 AM

    Due to upward overlap this morning, counts like this have now got to be put in play on S&P500 cash (5-min). Wave ((4)) would be longer in time than ((2)).

    https://invst.ly/oqqte

    TJ

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. TachyonNovember 21, 2019 at 11:52 AM

      Agreed that it really looks like some sort of fourth underway, albeit of a very sloppy looking impulse down. I suppose new lows, or lack thereof, will ultimately confirm or negate this count...

      Delete
  8. TachyonNovember 21, 2019 at 1:03 PM

    The five up from yesterday's low implies we likely have a fourth wave ZZ if that is the unfolding pattern, so we should see another five up before 5 down gets underway...

    ReplyDelete
  9. sammyNovember 21, 2019 at 1:04 PM

    Believe we are in a wave 2 of A of C.
    Appears on the 60 min chart to be forming a descending wedge

    ReplyDelete
  10. Elliott_TraderNovember 21, 2019 at 2:26 PM

    Here is the progress, so far. And a little more detail filled in from what I saw and experienced on the way down.

    https://invst.ly/oqu67

    TJ

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. TachyonNovember 21, 2019 at 2:40 PM

      Yep! Price action is a bit unruly so far as acceleration channels go...perhaps due to corrective nature of the move...?

      Delete
    2. Elliott_TraderNovember 21, 2019 at 2:46 PM

      IF there is another downward overlap, then look for a leading diagonal first wave of c, up, with a possible gap up tomorrow for iii of c.

      Delete
    3. Elliott_TraderNovember 21, 2019 at 3:05 PM

      ..there is the next downward overlap

      Delete
    4. Tom ENovember 21, 2019 at 3:08 PM

      Any reason that this diagonal is not all of "c"?

      Delete
    5. Elliott_TraderNovember 21, 2019 at 3:09 PM

      ... I suspect we are seeing something like this, on the right hand side of the chart. I need to change to a large time frame, as there are too many bars on the chart.

      https://invst.ly/oquso

      TJ

      Delete
    6. CNovember 21, 2019 at 3:21 PM

      Any issue with i of c being longer in time than a?

      Delete
    7. Tom ENovember 21, 2019 at 3:21 PM

      I suspect we are looking for at least a 0.62 retrace of ((3)) and need to get closer to the 0-2 trendline.

      Delete
    8. Elliott_TraderNovember 21, 2019 at 3:38 PM

      @C .. it isn't in futures. Always use futures to validate degree.

      Delete
    9. Elliott_TraderNovember 21, 2019 at 4:00 PM

      Here is the chart at the end of the day.

      https://invst.ly/oqvec

      TJ

      Delete
  11. Elliott_TraderNovember 21, 2019 at 4:35 PM

    A new post has been started for the next day.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Tahmere HarrisDecember 17, 2019 at 1:51 AM

    The simple truth about binary options which many of us do not know is the fact that it is mainly based on predictions. Without proper knowledge of what next can happen to the stock market, you are sure to lose your funds. That is why it is important to be tutored or mentored by a professional investor in binary options. During my weeks of being mentored by Mrs Patricia Morgan, I’ve learnt much and also succeeding in trades and was able to recover my lost funds. Feel free to contact her on patriciamorgan984 @ gmail .com for positive results or contact her on Whats App on +32460230365

    ReplyDelete

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