Tuesday, November 26, 2019

Overnight Rally and Fade

Over the weekend we cautioned several times that there could be a larger (iv)th wave in play. Prices moved higher on Monday. Over-night there was a substantial rally as the Asian markets and Europe got a chance to react. The up move to 1.618 says the chart should be viewed with odds slightly in favor of a third wave rather than a c wave.

ES Futures - 45 Min - A 1.618 Wave

Now might be an excellent time to pay attention to the local up fractal, at iii, and the overnight down fractal that tagged the EMA-34. Wave iv did already tag 38% x wave iii. If it hits the lower channel in a zigzag it would be a 50% retrace. Nothing prevents it from forming a larger-in-time triangle.

Have an excellent remainder of the day and week.
TraderJoe

9 comments:

  1. Amazing to see how much money is exiting this market on this move up.
    Hard to believe this exit being covered by retail buyers. Never seen anything quite like it...!

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    Replies
    1. Just curious: how do you see money exiting the market? By what method?

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    2. You need a Bloomberg terminal to track index money flows. The next best way is to simply look at the on balance volume indicator.

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    3. Using that method, NYA certainly looks like it; the other major indices less so. Thank you for the explanation.

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    4. Welcome. Wait till the close to assess OBV.

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    5. Would you mine providing a chart of what the OBV is showing you.

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  2. There is a new post for the next day.

    ReplyDelete