ES Daily Candle: Higher High, Higher Low, Higher Close: Trend Day
Market Posture: Negative
Daily Swing Line: Higher
Daily Bias: Up (Settle Above 18-day SMA)
Today the ES daily futures closed above the upper daily Bollinger Band for the second consecutive time, as the daily slow stochastic is just still in over-bought territory (not embedded).
 |
| ES Futures - Daily - Second Close Over Band |
This second close tends to lower the odds of remaining over the band to about (very roughly) 3%. Any close within the bands would now be a typical expectation. Five-to-seven closes over the band would be an exceptionally rare event. With this in mind, my market posture changes from neutral-to-negative to plain negative.
As readers get frustrated with the very short term intraday turn-arounds and seeming lack of downside in holiday-light volume, we just recognize it for what it is - a holiday market. I remain patient, flexible, calm and observant. Nothing about my view has changed from the Intermediate (B) wave up. (B) waves are notoriously difficult to count. That is their nature. That is how they trap weak hands into remaining long in a market about to reverse.
One of the observations that paying attention to 'wave degree' causes us to make is that this up wave yesterday and today has taken too much time.
 |
| ES Futures - 1 Hr - Too Much Time |
The up wave from the point marked ((2)) is more bars than the prior impulse from the point marked b to the point marked ((1)).
Therefore, some how these up waves can not be a larger b wave of an impulse, as b should not be larger in price or time than iii, if one was counting as i, ii, iii upward. This now leaves the possibility of a diagonal as (v) of minute ((c)) of (B). Therefore, somehow these waves must be of the same degree. I do not know the diagonal is over. It could easily have another down wave and another up wave. Hence the alt: ((3)).
Regardless, the pattern is complete enough to warrant the change in posture. The count also helps explain the lack of downside follow-through this morning.
Regardless, the pattern is complete enough to warrant the change in posture. The count also helps explain the lack of downside follow-through this morning.
I'll try to publish more over the weekend. Sentiment measures are getting stretched - the most important of which is that people are getting testy with me again in comments. I love it when that happens.
Have a good start to the holiday.
TraderJoe
Today we close over the daily BB. Perhaps Friday as well.
ReplyDeleteAfter 2 or more closes above, a close next week back inside the BB's and its a sell signal.
Gobble Gobble
The simple truth about binary options which many of us do not know is the fact that it is mainly based on predictions. Without proper knowledge of what next can happen to the stock market, you are sure to lose your funds. That is why it is important to be tutored or mentored by a professional investor in binary options. During my weeks of being mentored by Mrs Patricia Morgan, I’ve learnt much and also succeeding in trades and was able to recover my lost funds. Feel free to contact her on patriciamorgan984 @ gmail .com for positive results or contact her on Whats App on +32460230365
DeleteGood observations.. Thanks TJ!
ReplyDeleteWelcome C.
DeleteGood post! Thanks Joe. Happy Thanksgiving to all,
ReplyDeleteSame to you Tom, and thanks!
DeleteQuite right about b wave personality.
ReplyDeleteThe befuddlement,dismay,and confusion they engender, (and even ultimate convictionthat T.A. no longer works!) are all hallmarks of this particular animal. I remember all those emotions two years ago waiting for SVXY to blow up, and even wondering if T.A had been rendered irrelevant by the insanity of CB. The charts were saying, implode it must, and for a long time it refused...but implode it did. Oh, I fogot..."This time is different..."
Thanks Joe for the level head and the outstanding analysis.
ReplyDelete..welcome, Scout.
DeleteBelow about 3,137 there would likely be invalidation of the current wave ((4)) from the alternate shown last night, and a 'degree change' of some degree.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/ou781
TJ
ET, appears as if ((4)) has held so far but we are now also approaching the time limit for ((5)) as well. It would need to be less than 33 60min bars to maintain a contracting diagonal - correct?
Delete@pbeck; yes, as of about 8 am this morning the hourly is looking very funky time-wise for any further extension of the diagonal. So, the highest ATH may be it.
DeleteI've been referred to your site by MCG and AhaMichael two months ago and been reading your blog daily ever since. Your comments (and from other regular posters like Scotty and Tachyon) are both instructive and psychologically soothing. The market is disconnected from the reality (slowing down) that I see in the manufacturing industry every day. Been loosely looking at EW since 2001 and from reading you I still have lots to learn: I did not know the market could line up such a long string of diagonals and triangles! Thanks and keep going!
ReplyDeleteTypically TJ does not respond to you unless you have registered with a username....happy Thanksgiving to every one.
Delete@Unknown .. thanks, and please select a username for further commenting.
DeleteHi, Joe,
ReplyDeleteHappy thanksgiving! I have been a reader of your blog for the past several months and greatly appreciate your work. I have a question about your original WXY idea for current move. It is quite obvious that SP has traced out a 5 wave up from Oct. low. If the wave form is WXY, should Y be 3 wave instead of 5? Could current up move is only a of Y?
Thanks!
Hi Redcloud, I am really, really happy that people like you are beginning to get the hang of the various degrees involved - as well as a keen eye to the alternatives possible. Yes, to answer your question, the current upward length of the wave from the Oct low would 'allow' it to be only a "minute ((a)) wave of Y". What would invalidate it would be a downward wave that is "too long in length" or "too long in time".
DeleteTJ
P.S. that does mean it's possible to do a "glancing blow" and bounce off the July and Sept highs, for a minute ((b)) wave, and then head upward for in a more extreme minute ((c)) wave of Y.
DeleteThanks! If that is the case, Y probably will be ended in the 3450 area for Y equal to W.
Delete@red. No, not necessarily. If a minute ((c)) were to form an ending diagonal, it could advance much, much less.
DeleteThanks Joe. I think that a drop below 2855 will confirm the (B) cases. I am not clear is at which point would WXY becomes 123. The shape and slope of the 200 day SMA seems to support case for new bull market (123 instead of ABC or WXY).
DeleteShort term, the market is beginning to form clear fractals.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/oukjb
TJ
The simple truth about binary options which many of us do not know is the fact that it is mainly based on predictions. Without proper knowledge of what next can happen to the stock market, you are sure to lose your funds. That is why it is important to be tutored or mentored by a professional investor in binary options. During my weeks of being mentored by Mrs Patricia Morgan, I’ve learnt much and also succeeding in trades and was able to recover my lost funds. Feel free to contact her on patriciamorgan984 @ gmail .com for positive results or contact her on Whats App on +32460230365
ReplyDelete