Saturday, November 16, 2019

Closing in on minute ((c)) = minute ((a))

Notice that the market paused each time at ((c)) = 0.618 x ((a)), and ((c)) = 0.786 x ((a)). Note, too, that the market is bumping up against an upper wedge trend line, and there is still divergence with the MACD.

ES Futures - 5 Hr - Nearing ((c)) = ((a))

Further, if minute ((a)) is a diagonal, as we first concluded, then all of minute ((c)) should not be a diagonal which it is not. So far, so good.

After charting the wave, above, I have added this one, below, as the shorter term count on the ES 15-minutes. The reason is slippery: be very, very careful of your degree labels. In the futures, the middle wave - now labeled as a very small degree second wave, 2, is too long in time to be a fourth wave. This suggests that brown wave x 1 is the extended wave in the sequence. And wave 3 should be shorter than x 1. And then, if 4 does not invalidate, then 5 should be shorter than 3, and the whole thing should form a wedge.

ES Futures - 15 Minutes - Extended x 1 Wave of (v)

Further, within wave x 1, then wave x ((5)) is the extended wave in that sequence. It is very, very difficult to count otherwise and agree with degree labeling. The retrace of x 1, being less than 38.2%, tends to argue for this count, as well.

Have a good start to the weekend.
TraderJoe

34 comments:

  1. Fascinating how waves 4 and 5 back-testing broken 1-3 trend-line impulse from beneath. I have not seen this very often...

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    Replies
    1. Yep!
      I am also looking for a multi-month new low in VIX and the new count perfectly aligns with that outcome next week...

      Delete
    2. The simple truth about binary options which many of us do not know is the fact that it is mainly based on predictions. Without proper knowledge of what next can happen to the stock market, you are sure to lose your funds. That is why it is important to be tutored or mentored by a professional investor in binary options. During my weeks of being mentored by Mrs Patricia Morgan, I’ve learnt much and also succeeding in trades and was able to recover my lost funds. Feel free to contact her on patriciamorgan984 @ gmail .com for positive results or contact her on Whats App on +32460230365

      Delete
  2. Thanks for the update for the coming week!

    I wanted to get back to you on our GDX discussion (and your replies):

    ..can only say the rebuttal has the benefit of post-pattern behavior which I did not have at the time. So, if it's a triangle, you expect only one more leg down?

    First, the truncated 5th as your 2nd diagonal posited was there in realtime. Any confirmation of a 5th wave (break of 2-4TL, retrace to w4) are post pattern by definition, as is knowing whether a diagonal fully retraces (ending). I dont quite understand the purpose of that comment. My point was that IF Neely's truncation contention (impulse is fully retraced) is accepted, then one would know that the assessment could be wrong should it not fully retrace after truncation (before making a new high/low in the other direction). Of course, this has to be post pattern.

    Second, yes, as I highlighted on my chart, I am expecting a further move down (to meet Neely's longest wave x 1.618 from "e" measure). As I stated, this could still fail. I dont know that my application here of his running triangle variation is correct, I simply stated that it had met all conditions up to the point in time I offered it. As an aside, it yet today remains unaltered and intact. Im simply waiting to see if it follows through to the downside.

    Regarding your "are you sure it isnt this?" response:

    If Im not mistaken, thats simply your original diagonal offered again. I believe it failed to reach its 2-4 TL in same/less time than 5th wave took to form, suggesting that the move was not yet completed. Again, if Im not mistaken, that's why you changed to the 2nd diagonal (containing the truncated 5th). If I missed something there, I'll stand corrected.

    Thanks for the discussion. Im still hoping to learn whether you concur with Neely's truncation assertion (full retrace of impulse [trending/terminal]).

    Thanks again for everything!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Not on the GDX topic, I added a chart in the P.S.

      Delete
    2. On the GDX topic. I will be careful to comment on Neely's observation for the following reason: many analysts consider the wave at the red (*) to have been a truncation. The question is "which wave truncated there?"

      https://invst.ly/oo9vo

      If it is the smaller 'internal' wave, then, yes, by exceeding the blue dashed line then there was a full retrace of the preceding impulse.

      If it is the larger 'external' wave, then, the jury is out as the S&P500 exceeded the red dashed line, the Dow did not.

      This topic is exceptionally hard to verify without Neely providing some of his specific examples. I personally don't plan to spend too much more time on the topic unless specific examples can be provided, except to say that if a real truncation occurs then one should at least 'watch' for the impulse or diagonal to be exceeded.

      Certainly, I have seen many 'C' wave diagonals with a truncated vth wave that are fully retraced. So, I can certainly support a 'portion' of the contention.

      TJ

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  3. On the subject of waves taking too long in time: is subwave (iv) of ((c)) taking to long relative to the length of ((b))?

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    Replies
    1. Hiya Tom. I was looking at that. First, it may depend where ((b)) actually ends. There are other waves that overlap ((a)) that provide more time to the move for ((b)). More - if needed - later.

      Delete
  4. Talking about wave degrees: looking at the bigger picture, isn't it a problem that the w subwave of B (the proposed w,x,y up) is bigger in both time and price than A?

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    Replies
    1. Hi STVk ..no. That is not a problem. One compares wave degrees "in the same direction". In other words, sub-wave Minor W needs only to be shorter in price and time than the previous largest Intermediate wave in the up direction. That was Intermediate (5). At this point W is shorter than (5), so degrees are preserved. Also, it must be shorter in price and time. Since Intermediate (5) was approximately two (2) years (2016 - 2018), then since Minor W was only 5 months in length, it meets this criteria, too.

      Delete
  5. question. This great wave A Who started in January 2019 will finish in how long in B
    Thank you for your answers

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I am not yet prepared to comment on the whole (B) wave. You might notice some similarity in these candles.

      https://invst.ly/ooiqw

      They are all candles in which the strong up day left very little to no wick on the top of the candle.

      TJ

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    2. He did comment back in the summer, when he called the top.
      As it wasn't, why risk another mistake by commenting on when he thinks B will end.

      No one knows anyway, EW is useless in that regard, every waver out there has been wrong most of this year.

      Delete
    3. It's all about CB induced liquidity. That primarily, and not herd sentiment, the foundational postulate of EW, is imho what drives market price these days. We may now be seeing correlation between those two variables. Markets have clearly decoupled form economic reality. I am curious as to why so few EW analysts have been willing to consider what has been so obvious...

      Delete
  6. Anyone else noticed that VIX executed a gap higher from a falling wedge while ES was STILL printing an ATH?
    Signifcant perhaps?
    The short volatility trade is at historic levels.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Duelling gaps.
    Gap higher to new ATH in DJIA, gap lower in SPX at the open.
    I have never seen anything like it...!

    ReplyDelete
  8. This wave could have ended - due to the relative size of the down wave. If so, it ended in a truncation. Further confirmation would be downward overlap of 1, up.

    https://invst.ly/oozs8

    Nothing 'useless' about Elliott Wave - as a previous spammer posted.


    TJ

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ..note the Elliott Wave Oscillator is greater than -40% of the previous peak which is a tremendous warning sign.

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    2. S&P500 cash closed it's gap at the high; futures lower.

      Delete
    3. YAT??!!
      (Yet Another Triangle?)

      Delete
  9. I could be wrong, but unless I see an INITIAL wave down that demolishes multiple prior S/R levels, I am going to assume the CBs are still in control. The size of the move down does seem to suggest some kind of trend change but we certainly have seen that many times before...with new highs to follow. I suspect the truncation will be remedied before we're done...

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  10. One plausible down count .. still needs to validate below the prior 1, up at 3,110.

    https://invst.ly/op09q

    TJ

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Price movement lower is outside of diagonal trend lines.

      https://invst.ly/op0re

      TJ

      Delete
  11. If Im reading this correctly, if (v) of ((c)) completed this morning, we should reach its 2-4 TL by latter tomorrow afternoon (preferably sooner).

    ReplyDelete
  12. Cash looks like it might be trying to make a 5th wave ED on the 5 minute chart, though I'm not sure how all the messiness before might count for the 4th wave.

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    Replies
    1. ..yes .. there is that possibility.

      Delete
    2. ..ES futures, too, (5 min) 'may' have extended out to a larger ending diagonal. But, still depends on crossing below 3110.

      Delete
  13. Looks like ES leading the way...overnight high holding. If correct, we should be seeing a co-ordinated swoon shortly...

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  14. Despite the dis-proproportion between 2 and four, we do have five down in ES.
    Thoughts?

    ReplyDelete
  15. A new post has been started for the next day.

    ReplyDelete
  16. The simple truth about binary options which many of us do not know is the fact that it is mainly based on predictions. Without proper knowledge of what next can happen to the stock market, you are sure to lose your funds. That is why it is important to be tutored or mentored by a professional investor in binary options. During my weeks of being mentored by Mrs Patricia Morgan, I’ve learnt much and also succeeding in trades and was able to recover my lost funds. Feel free to contact her on patriciamorgan984 @ gmail .com for positive results or contact her on Whats App on +32460230365

    ReplyDelete