Higher High, Poor Close

U.S. Debt Clock: $23.00 Trillion; prev $23.00
ES Daily Candle: Higher High, Higher Low, Lower Close: Yin-Yang Candle
Market Posture: Neutral-to-negative and Probing
Daily Swing Line: Higher (Higher High, Higher Low)
Daily Bias: Up (Settle Above 18-day SMA)

The ES futures were again higher overnight, and then were sold off a bit. The result was the higher high was never seen in the cash market: another one of those invisible waves, or perhaps part of a hard to describe "B" wave. With that in mind, today in the comments I published this count which keeps degree labeling in tact, and is still in accordance with the overall Intermediate (B) wave in the longer term count. Here is the ES 4-hr chart starting from the minute ((e)) wave of the X wave triangle from the daily chart, shown at the lower left .

ES Futures - 4 Hr - Minute ((b)) Count

This count places the expanding triangle as a sub-minuette b wave, within minuet (b) wave upward. This is one of the few locations a triangle can be located at (Four, B, X or Y). What we know for sure is that the triangle simply can not be located in a second wave position. Yet, being a triangle, it may immediately appear before the last wave in the current upward sequence.

Minute ((a)) reverts back to it's original position at the top of a the leading contracting diagonal - a diagonal pattern of which has been proven by higher highs following it. The reason that degrees are preserved, is that the sub-minuette b wave - the expanding triangle - is just shorter in time and length than minuet (a), the larger degree down wave. Further minuet (b), up, is shorter in length and time than the minute ((a)) wave, it's larger degree wave in the upward direction. The minuet (b) wave could be over with with today's ugly top, and possible truncation in the S&P500. If so, this count would then predict overlap with the minute ((a)) wave. In short, the minute ((b)) wave would be a flat wave.

If there is to be a higher high for minuet (b), it should occur in the next 8 - 12 hours to keep the degrees in tact. Otherwise, it could just fall unexpectedly lower. Today was the second time the ES futures hit the upper Bollinger Band and could not close above it. But, as it was, today's point loss was quite small, so the assumption of a fourth wave of c of (b) is still in tact. IF the ES gets over 3,079 in the after hours, then the assumption of a fifth wave upward becomes more tenable.

The chart link HERE shows how to keep the Dow (2 hr) cash chart in synch with the ES futures.

Have a good start to the evening.

TraderJoe