We said in our blog posts that the ES futures - which started out its latest minute ((a)) wave with a diagonal wave - could extend to an impulse (using that diagonal wave as a first wave). The daily chart below shows that larger pattern, again, the purpose being to extend Intermediate (B) to 1.27 or 1.38 times Intermediate (A).
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| ES Futures - Daily - Minute ((a)) Wave |
It is possible for the minute ((b)) wave to come back to test the breakout point (or more, lower). Notice how our selection for the minor X wave, based on time relationships between W and X, resulted in the next wave sequence higher to be the breakout wave.
Below are two charts showing the counts on the shorter term intraday time frames for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the ES futures since the October low. Both can now be located as minute ((a)) at the same time, the Dow would be a diagonal, and could be a 5:3:5:3:5 diagonal in cash.
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| DJIA Cash Index - Intraday - Diagonal |
The ES intraday chart below, shows it's leading diagonal as wave (i) of the sequence. Again, because of overlapping waves, and the lengths of the waves, we could not count the sequence from the low to the October 17th high as an impulse. But, then, the rest of the wave is.
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| ES Futures - Intraday - Impulse |
In both waves, wave (v) should not become longer than wave (iii), as wave (iii) is already shorter than wave (i). In the ES chart - as an alternate - we have tried already to count wave (iii) at the top, but that results in a degree violation where the new iv location would be longer in time than all of (ii), if (ii) were located at w, and iv were located where (iv) is now.
Based on the publicly available CNN fear/greed model, the market now stands at "80" or "Extreme Greed". This is a higher level than at the October 2018 peak, but it is not as high as the January, 2018 peak of 93 - 95. Other measures of sentiment such as "percent bullishness" are beginning to perk up, but are not near historical peaks at this time. Still, given the CNN warning, and the run-up in October, some pull-back in November might be expected.
Have a good rest of the weekend and a good start to the week.
TraderJoe
I have read on two websites that list the rules and guidelines of EW that X waves can be any corrective pattern except triangles. Yet Elliott Wave Principle, page 52, states that X waves can be any corrective pattern. Not much else is said about X waves. Does anybody know where the triangle exclusion comes from?
ReplyDeleteDon't use 'other websites'. Use only material published in reputable books.
DeleteThat's what I'm trying to find out.
DeleteIn DOW's count, I agree with you that the move is better counted as diagonal. However, in my counting, wave (1) in your chart should be a ZIGZAG, not a 5-wave impulsive; and also, more importantly, the wave (5) in your chart should be wave (3) of the ongoing diagonal, which means, after a zigzag (4), the entire market will stage a final and last push to ATH for wave (5) of this ED.
ReplyDelete(B) 1.27= ?
ReplyDelete1.38= ?
thank you very much!
3095 and 3120
DeleteES: high=2947, low=2317, (A)=-630 so 1.27=800+2317=3117, 1.38=869+2317=3186
DeleteSPX: 2941, 2347, -594 so 1.27=754+2347=3101, 1.38=820+2347=3167
It appears that both 30min charts (iii)s have been exceeded by their respective (v)s (line or bar).
ReplyDeletehttps://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/central%20bank%20liquidity.jpg?itok=IF8ENw-c
ReplyDeleteRUT tracing out some kind of triangle apparently and the B leg seems to be the complex wave. Price has to break soon or invalidate the pattern I think...
ReplyDeleteThere is now a valid diagonal downward off the high in the ES .. 5-min; and the question is how this fits into the structures. It could be corrective, so mind the p's and q's.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/o6yn8
TJ
..had to wait until 3,074.00 was crossed to validate that ((5)) wave longer in length (and time) than ((3)).
DeleteA new post has been started for the next day.
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