We said in our blog posts that the ES futures - which started out its latest minute ((a)) wave with a diagonal wave - could extend to an impulse (using that diagonal wave as a first wave). The daily chart below shows that larger pattern, again, the purpose being to extend Intermediate (B) to 1.27 or 1.38 times Intermediate (A).
|ES Futures - Daily - Minute ((a)) Wave|
It is possible for the minute ((b)) wave to come back to test the breakout point (or more, lower). Notice how our selection for the minor X wave, based on time relationships between W and X, resulted in the next wave sequence higher to be the breakout wave.
Below are two charts showing the counts on the shorter term intraday time frames for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the ES futures since the October low. Both can now be located as minute ((a)) at the same time, the Dow would be a diagonal, and could be a 5:3:5:3:5 diagonal in cash.
|DJIA Cash Index - Intraday - Diagonal|
The ES intraday chart below, shows it's leading diagonal as wave (i) of the sequence. Again, because of overlapping waves, and the lengths of the waves, we could not count the sequence from the low to the October 17th high as an impulse. But, then, the rest of the wave is.
|ES Futures - Intraday - Impulse|
In both waves, wave (v) should not become longer than wave (iii), as wave (iii) is already shorter than wave (i). In the ES chart - as an alternate - we have tried already to count wave (iii) at the top, but that results in a degree violation where the new iv location would be longer in time than all of (ii), if (ii) were located at w, and iv were located where (iv) is now.
Based on the publicly available CNN fear/greed model, the market now stands at "80" or "Extreme Greed". This is a higher level than at the October 2018 peak, but it is not as high as the January, 2018 peak of 93 - 95. Other measures of sentiment such as "percent bullishness" are beginning to perk up, but are not near historical peaks at this time. Still, given the CNN warning, and the run-up in October, some pull-back in November might be expected.
Have a good rest of the weekend and a good start to the week.