ES Daily Candle: Higher High, Higher Low, Higher Close: Trend Candle
Market Posture: Neutral-to-negative and Probing
Daily Swing Line: Neutral (Higher High, Lower Low)
Daily Bias: Up (Settle Above 18-day SMA)
ES futures prices gapped up overnight (which is a little unusual for the futures) and rose about 20 points. I don't suppose that had anything to do with the newly posted $23 Trillion in debt, right? Prices hit and exceeded the upper daily Bollinger Band as in the chart below. As soon as the cash market opened, they began a slow steady decline, losing about 10 of those points, and then drifted sideways to close off the highs.
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| ES Futures - Daily - Strike Upper Band |
Again, it is "not often" that the futures gap higher. I've posted this chart so you can see when futures gap higher (as in July, and again in late October). Such gaps are often relatively quickly filled when compared to cash gaps.
With the Bollinger Band hit, one target has been achieved, and the so-called Smart Money often takes some positions off at the upper band. You may wish to review Ira Epstein's guidelines for what happens when price hits the upper daily band (see this LINK).
The immediate count will be better able to be resolved when and if we see if tomorrow is a "turn-around Tuesday". The local count of minute ((a)) up has become muddied by the slightly longer than expected wave today, but we are still in the Intermediate (B) wave. One question is whether the minute ((a)) wave belongs in the original location, and we are now in the minute ((c)) wave? Or - is it possible the minute ((b)) wave will form a large triangle of it's own. I'll be working on questions of this type over the next several days.
The daily slow stochastic has remained embedded, and price remains over the 18-day SMA or 'line in the sand'.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average finally made a new all-time-high, and closed above it daily cash
Bollinger Band.
It is also worth noting that as the stocks market has made new highs, the daily VIX has not had a lower low since April. There is some divergence there - let's see if it holds.
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
Wondering if there are perhaps other techincal indicators that might help distinguish whether we are seeing a continuing minute a, or a minute c of minor c of intermediate b. Movement above upper B band in my experience generally presages a larger than minute degree imminent correction.
ReplyDeleteSee comment at 1:08 pm, below.
DeleteThe simple truth about binary options which many of us do not know is the fact that it is mainly based on predictions. Without proper knowledge of what next can happen to the stock market, you are sure to lose your funds. That is why it is important to be tutored or mentored by a professional investor in binary options. During my weeks of being mentored by Mrs Patricia Morgan, I’ve learnt much and also succeeding in trades and was able to recover my lost funds. Feel free to contact her on patriciamorgan984 @ gmail .com for positive results or contact her on Whats App on +32460230365
Deletethanks joe
ReplyDeleteHave you changed your count from the 2009 low and have you found anything new with your use of wave degrees which impact other possible counts from that inception?
welcome marc. In the short run, no. In the long run, try this experiment: Take the S&P500 from 2009 on an arithmetic OHLC chart, and draw the 0 - 2 trend line. Now take the very same data and change the scale to 'log' scale and now draw the 0 - 2 trend line. What do you see; same results or different?
DeleteI think gold is on the c of y of xx. It should not be this weak if triangle was right.
ReplyDeleteBBR, not sure about that. Still no clear break of this congestion zone. Gold may be in a small triangle that started around Oct 1. Need to get below 1483 to confirm your call.
DeleteTom -
DeleteI have the prior high as "e" of triangle (B or X wave), now headed down to confirm. Is this what you're referencing?
Thanks
Grey, yes.
DeleteGold made it down past 1483 and then reversed. Is this now just a backtest or is the triangle continuing somehow?
DeleteI will publish this chart tonight, but as far as I can tell, the wave degrees add up acceptably. The count puts the expanded triangle in a 'b' wave position. And minuet (b) at the high might not be over with yet - could be .iv of c of (b).
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/oaxni
It would be the 'out-sized (b) wave count', and the expectation is to come down off the upper daily Bollinger Band at some point soon. In terms of wave degrees, minuet (b) upward is currently shorter than minute ((a)), upward.
I can also see how this might fit with the Dow count, to be explained tonight.
TJ
Yet another ED...
ReplyDeleteJoe,
ReplyDeleteUsing log spx since 2009, it appears 4th wave was done in 2015/2016. Fifth wave is done or extending - wave dgerees on log scale are a bit chellenging for extension.
on a different note, For quite some time i have been looking at jun/jul 2012 as possibly the real start of impulse if it cant be ruled out. you are better at the counts than me - but maybe the large pct drops 2011/2012 were still correction.
First I was just asking are the results of 'arithmetic' and 'log' the same?
DeleteI see. the results are not the same.
DeleteA new post has been started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteThe simple truth about binary options which many of us do not know is the fact that it is mainly based on predictions. Without proper knowledge of what next can happen to the stock market, you are sure to lose your funds. That is why it is important to be tutored or mentored by a professional investor in binary options. During my weeks of being mentored by Mrs Patricia Morgan, I’ve learnt much and also succeeding in trades and was able to recover my lost funds. Feel free to contact her on patriciamorgan984 @ gmail .com for positive results or contact her on Whats App on +32460230365
ReplyDelete