In the last two days the ES hourly has had a turn either exactly at noon or on the candle next. What's going on here? Yes, I get that this is the time for news media to make an impassioned plea that stocks are either falling out of bed or shooting to the moon. Here is the current hourly count for the ES futures off of the recent low.
So far, it looks like a/i up, and b/ii flat and then the up wave that started at noon today. It's all gappy and grindy. It doesn't mean it can't go up, but it doesn't seem like true impulsivity in this channel shown.
Have an excellent start to the evening and the CPI report scheduled for tomorrow.
TraderJoe
I've seen this movie before. Down in the next day or two to test the lows and then a big rally.
ReplyDeleteMaybe. They are already pumping. Hugely! 😊
DeleteYes ok
DeleteIt's a C wave no doubt. The reversal in the next week will be fierce.
DeleteDown wave is already too long for further diagonal. If there was a diagonal it counts like this one on the ES hourly.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/EHrhDqFQ/
TJ
From the ES 30-min intraday wave-counting-screen; three consecutive closes below the lower band now drops the odds to 2-4% of a further close outside the band. Not impossible - just low odds.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/rzqX49OA/
TJ
Cash count is more clear. We had an ld to make a past few days then b and yesterday closing high was c
DeleteA absolutely mania market. My count is 3 of 3 down in the Dow is coming next fwiw. The banks have topped.
ReplyDeleteOutside day up with an outside embedded day down embedded within with perhaps
ReplyDeletethats a hit.
DeleteSome one sitting at 5400-5405. 100 point swing.
ReplyDeleteSeems like on the dealers chart (4hr) they are buying every stab under the BB.
ReplyDeleteMy highest probability is we are in 3 of x1 impulse.
Delete130 points off the low 5448 is resistance. looks like a wave 2 of C in Japan futes
ReplyDeletepardon me 5548
Deletejust fyi - SPY now back to area of prior fourth wave, and c = 1.618 x a.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/dXepQi0f/
TJ
This market is really manipulated. A total retrace down into Friday as the smart money went short at the close. The big banks hardly rallied. IMHO
ReplyDeleteFor measurement purposes, I will note that the futures did 'not' reach the 90% mark down, and maybe counted as (a), (b), (c) zigzag if/when (c) ends.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/wDtwaDmF/
TJ
..and there would be good alternation in a corrective wave, with a 'long-in-time' diagonal wave, up, followed by the 'short-in-time' impulse up. TJ.
Deletein this case can abc become 123?. todays candle is more of kickoff like 8/8 or 5/31. It comes as one of the worst 2 weeks seasonally is under way. a lot going on. maybe mnaking a l;arger triangle since 7/16 top. or maybe heading back over the top.
DeletePossible a,b,c = i, ii, iii until we know more (like overlap downward or not). TJ.
DeleteRegardless of the possible wave count, the 18ma is 10 points away. Tomorrow's numbers should either confirm it goes higher or rejects as it has before at this level.
ReplyDeleteES 5-min: the hidden diagonal. Did you find it? Clearly, it's been exceeded lower.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/wiwegZZb/
TJ
E 5-min; the b wave has been exceeded higher. So question for all of you readers: without the futures how do you count just a,b,c down?
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/rJcdwcXD/
Therein lies an issue.
TJ
GOLD (GC) - daily - does have the new high. TJ.
ReplyDeleteSPY 5-min: yet another 'hidden diagonal' that went nowhere.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/iXnbVT1w/
TJ
Triangle
Delete@grr .. certainly possible. I think at this point the best one can do is monitor parallels and see if they break. ES futures link below.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/16gepc
TJ
ES now a new higher high. TJ
ReplyDeleteI have been stuck on the phone all week. Were is ES 18day on the daily?
ReplyDeleteI have it at 5579...
ReplyDeleteTHX so much!
DeleteSPY 5-min: looks like 'last chance' fourth wave; with overlap warning noted. The little baby diagonal we posted earlier this morning was the end of a wave.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/95x6U24o/
TJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ