The prior post shows the shorter-term daily count on the Dow (YM) futures. Today's post reviews two long term charts, the counts of which have been outlined in previous posts. I'll keep the commentary short as it is the count which is the most salient. Each chart is still in an effort to "count five waves until we can not". Here is the annual close-only chart with degree labeling shown. This is my own count and recognizes a "Running Second Wave" for SuperCycle [II] which augurs in the great strength of the following SuperCycle [III]'d wave.
We likely haven't seen a good sign yet of SuperCycle wave [IV] as there has not yet been a clear five waves down to start a trend reversal. Note the likely divergence on the PPO indicator from the high of Wave Cycle III to Cycle V.
And here is that wave Cycle IV to Cycle V - which may not be done just yet. Again, this is still in an effort to "count in fives" this time on the monthly close-only chart.
Your wave ii on yesterday dow chart is the same truncation I pointed out on the September rally
ReplyDeleteNo, I don't think so. The ii truncation occurred back on June 14th, 2024, on the Dow expanding diagonal. The September rally had nothing to do with it, and the wave you pointed out occurred on August 8th. So, I don't know what/why you are doing this except to say that several of your posted charts have had 'neither' price nor time labels, so it is difficult to know what you are thinking - period. TJ.
Deletethis was the post with the truncation -
Deletehttps://postimg.cc/Hr9Sn0Xv.
this is the chart with dates and times
https://postimg.cc/Dmt7FGrb
It was September 11 truncating.
this is the dow abc truncation in June
https://postimg.cc/3y8Tq2s5
i was pointing out the 3 wave down truncations were similar
the sep 11 truncation would indicate another leg higher in local count
remove the period in link: this was the post with the truncation -
Deletehttps://postimg.cc/Hr9Sn0Xv
FYI - there was no criticism in my post. i was highlighting something in your chart that looked analagous to an alternate count of mine. I'll take more care in my standards for charting.
DeleteYep, I get what you mean - er, now. TJ.
DeleteIf Cycle 4 is a behemoth of a triangle, would a triangle not obviate the need for an initial 5 down? Ditto with a flat. I suppose it is all a question of what wave degree is under consideration. 😊
ReplyDeleteIF Cycle 4 is a 'behemoth' triangle then the first 5 of the 5-3-5 zigzag of the "a" wave of the triangle should be clearly discernable. TJ.
DeleteThanks Tj. Dow is not that significant compared to Spx and Naadaq. From 2008, if you check new tech revolution came after Steve Jobs introduced iphone and the story continues till now. Ai and going ahead Agi. Better do long term charts for both indices.
ReplyDeleteLol. 'Once upon a time (in a galaxy far, far away), the Dow was all there was to represent the U.S. economy' until about 1954. And Elliott used it to develop his principle. Then the S&P 500. Then the NDX much later. I do 'not' reconstruct backwards as so many try to approximate. Each index is counted on its own. Which index is more 'important' is personal and depends on whether you are trading tech or not.
DeleteTJ
:) I don't know when EW made his principles but it is still applicable today. May be governments were not buying or putting cash themselves those times. I live in Canada abs saw TSX all time high with economy really in shatters
Delete1938, it's in the first paragraph.
Deletehttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliott_wave_principle
TJ
Is the ten year yield calling "Poppy-cock" on the "official" inflation numbers, and ditto on the aggressive 50 basis point cut by FED on short term rates? So it would seem as it is RISING.However the dispute between the US Maritime Alliance and the International Longshoremen's Association resolved itself, either by strike next month, or by settlement, the outcome will be inflationary. A strike further disrupts already fragile supply chains, sending prices skyward. A settlement means substantially higher labor costs, which will be passed on to consumers. I guess the ten year yield is onto something!! 😊
ReplyDeleteYou're reading an awful lot into a 17 bps move off the recent low. Still 90 bps lower than the April high.
DeleteLol! Ever heard of "Buy the rumor, sell the news"? Let me humbly suggest that you continue to pay attention. 😊
DeleteES 30-min: here is a reminder of the intraday wave-counting-screen with updated daily pivots and local fractals. Price is looking at the combo of the upper band, the daily pivot P and the 100-SMA (green crosses) but is not there yet. A lower low was made in the overnight but no downward length yet.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/yduL5nOP/
TJ
ES 30-min: two local fractals have been added; price still hanging between the bands.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/UvaIKAJb/
TJ
ES 30-min: prior down (red) fractal has been taken out lower. TJ.
DeleteSPY 15-min: prior low exceeded lower.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/cqRT6hvA/
TJ
SPY 15-min: low on 9/25 exceeded lower.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/tCwnhsu6/
TJ
ES 30-min: approaching S2 daily pivot.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/IJb8CAGI/
TJ
fyi - (from CNBC) Dow falls 200 points as Powell signals Fed won’t be as aggressive cutting rates
ReplyDeleteSurprise, surprise! He's trying to let them down easy. They don't know the half of it . !!! Lol!
Delete+1
DeleteSPY 15-min: this up wave now larger than prior up wave.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/jHVF8ogv/
TJ
Now over prior high.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/NMUjmImC/
TJ
And down wave from top largest since 9/9. Same reaction as fed meeting 9/11.
ReplyDeleteSPY 1-hr: still acceptable 'by measurement' so far, but there would have to be a 'turn on Tuesday' for this count to persist.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/1uaZst49/
If you draw the lower trend line 'exact' it looks a bit parallel, but it might just be an Elliott 'under-shoot' often written about.
On the ES 30-min, there was only one close below the lower band - odds about 5 - 7%, and it sprung back hard. Still, one doesn't 'short new' below the band according to this adaptation of Ira's guidelines (not trading or investment advice - just an intraday adaptation of what Ira teaches on the daily).
TJ
Isn't 4 longer than 2 or my charts messed up
DeleteES is longer (i.e. futures); cash SPY by measurement shown is shorter. 'Also' ES did not exceed the prior high like cash did. So, there's lots of things to sort out. TJ.
DeleteI think algos have given up on elliott waves...
ReplyDeleteOn the contrary, I suspect they are very well-versed in the principle. I fully expected at the very least a spirited attempt to negate Friday's shooting star candle. Lol!
DeleteIt's sure not pretty but the Dow cash has 5 down and 2 up at the close. HD looks like it could have a finished a massive EDT. The pavlov canines are at it again. Bow to the Fed god. Lol
ReplyDeleteES 30-min: from S2 with one close outside the lower band, through P & 18-per SMA, up to R1 and two closes over the upper band. This drops the odds to 3 - 5% of the next close outside the upper band.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/sqW8zGZw/
TJ
Maritime Alliance offering a 40% wage increase. Longshoremen asking 70%! Each day of potential strike costs 5 billion, and takes 5 days to clear resulting back-log. Yikes!! What does Mr Market think about this I wonder?
ReplyDelete70 percent? Every longshormen I and my Dad knew was always flush. Especially the bosses. Oh well someday the Bezzle will become known when money becomes scarce again when the cycle turns down. But its different this time.
ReplyDeleteLast strike.was.in 1977. Central Bank recklessness.and outright stupidity will certainly see the current stagflation morph into a hyper-inflatiionary nightmare, so 70% not as unreasonable as one would presume. Deflation comes after the cycle 4 crash.
DeleteThey also probably realize they will eventually loose the fight against inevitable automation and robotics....
DeleteJoe, there are 4 degrees of nested 12 in spy . i have detailed degree and oscillator and 0-2 trendline concersn on chart. This is alternative of impulse to a diagonal for wave 5, where we are anticiapting a top and then an overlap in aboe count.
ReplyDeletehttps://postimg.cc/bddBzK3R
I think ((i)) is larger than 1.
Deleteon a % basis it wont be, on absolute basis i thought was almostr identical .
DeleteI don't think so - at all. Consider the "odds". The nested count calls for an explosion of price above the long-term trend lines shown in this post. That is lower odds, as is the sentiment at the moment (put-call ratio 5-day < 0.50). However, I will completely agree with trillions of dollars involved, this much simpler impulse could be in play.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/KZ0zjrbO/
This count provides 'alternation' between 2 & 4 and attempts to address the 'problem' wave by calling them of the same degree. Right now, price is in two channels, and this channel 'could be seen' as an acceleration channel. But I have addressed both of these issues before.
Here is the "Problem Child".
https://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2024/09/problem-child.html
In my humble opinion the simpler alternative has the higher odds of playing out as an alternate.
TJ
ES 30-min: here is a reminder of the intraday wave-counting-screen with updated daily pivots and local fractals. Right now, there are two closes below the lower band, dropping the odds to 3 - 5% of the next close being outside of the band (not impossible - just lower odds).
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/dsKrs4BJ/
TJ
Now three closes under the band - drops the odds to 2 - 4% of next close being outside the band (not impossible - just lower odds). TJ.
DeleteES 30-min: close inside the lower band resets the number of consecutive closes. TJ.
DeleteFirst and 2nd wave down of A or 1? We just retraced .382.
ReplyDeleteyesterday's high marked the ii. so now iii and iv.
ReplyDeleteWhy can't the structure post the COVID low not be counted as a completed expanding diagonal? It appears to satisfy price and time requirements on DOW, SPX and DAX to name but three prominent indexes. It is not textbook in appearance, which would be too obvious.
ReplyDeleteIf you're thinking of this one:
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/N5CLgf2l/
Not saying it can't be, but two good reasons are 1) the first retrace is not 62 - 81% as in the 'guidelines' for a diagonal, and 2) the current up wave has all of the same problems. Is it a-b-c, or w-x-y or will it turn into an impulse. It's something to keep in one's 'back pocket' but at the moment it doesn't shed any more light on things. TJ.
.. a third one is that the $NYAD is at an all-time high, and there have been few-to-no actual bear markets that have started in that condition. There is usually quite a substantial $NYAD divergence before a true bear begins. TJ.
DeleteSPY 5-min: a 90% down wave was made - 'possible' flat.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/ZhvjuwGO/
TJ
prior noon high exceeded higher. TJ.
Delete..now over a 50% retrace which is good enuf to support a 1.618 x downward leg if one gets started. TJ.
DeleteIn the Dow in C of 2 about done? Gap filled
ReplyDeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ