Yesterday's down move was bold and dramatic - and not all that unanticipated. People being themselves called the up move over one day into September - and it could well be, but this is just one outcome with about a 50-50% odds. That is because by measurement the down move in the futures still hasn't exceeded the level of 38% x wave iii. Here is the ES 4-Hr chart showing the current measurements.
 |
| ES Futures - 4 Hr - Last Chance wave iv ? |
Note, too, at this location the EWO is red again, and below the zero line. Note a wave iv - in this area would be longer in time than wave iii. But notice also the EWO is about -66% x wave iii max. That is stretching the limit quite a bit. And, so, we would agree - the market could have topped in a contracting ending diagonal. And so, we have indicated that, too.
With this count there may be a way for the market to make a cleaner C wave up, although that is not required.
Still, with about even odds, caution patience and flexibility are the key words here.
Have an excellent start to the day.
TraderJoe
Reminder: Econ reports at the top of the hour. TJ.
ReplyDeleteES 5,546 to 5,520 and nearly back in 3 min: flexibility needed? nah? lol. TJ.
DeleteFactory orders +5 % vs - 3.8% prior.
ReplyDeleteJOLTS jobs 7.67 MM vs 7.91 prior.
SPY 3-min: from the down (red) fractal low, this pattern is valid.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Uv6HCxLI/
TJ
How about a triangle..early august low was a , then b till last week and now c
ReplyDeletethis wave up (ES 4-hr) has five non-overlapping waves up; any way it's cut. I don't see three waves up here on the ES 4-hr. So, that tend to rule out a triangle at this stage. TJ.
DeleteES/SPY CFD 5-min: can't blame you if you're frustrated; fives in both direction; then three up.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/16cnz5
TJ
SPY 5-min: with 130 candles on the cash chart, I can't rule out something like this - waiting on reports tomorrow and Friday.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/vVoUMeaC/
TJ
That's looking pretty good here. Nicely done!
Delete4hr rsi still too low for my taste, a surprise move up overnight to trap late bears would be ideal, for me anyways 😁
ReplyDeleteES / SPY (CFD) 5-min: here are some of the later fractals made just before the cash close.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/16cplx
TJ
it's diagonals all over - which is ok if we're in a triangle. TJ.
Deleteexcellent job keeping us abreast thanks
ReplyDeletewelcome. TJ.
DeleteSPY 15-min: watch the lower limit of 5 in the x1 count closely. Or else, perhaps there is an alternate in red.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/kYf4e4TJ/
TJ
SPY 5-min: has broken a 'base channel' upward.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/h3gE4MM4/
TJ
5 waves up now.
DeleteFrom high early this week, it looks like impulse down, then a flat. We would be in c.
ReplyDeleteFascinating how intra-day attempts to hammer a bottom were rejected. Looks to me like the beard in charge. Also counting a corrective move higher after impulse.
ReplyDeleteSPY 1-Hr: when I don't know, I say "I don't know". I 'can' count a five but the retrace for a fourth wave is 'awfully' deep compared to the second wave. Still there is no overlap. Yet, there are ways to count it as a three, still in a wedge.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/oAy0RBUo/
The Payroll Report tomorrow will have more to say about it than I will.
TJ
I am at a complete loss to comprehend why the marke ever considers these reports as relevant, lol!
Deletelooks like a bear pennant broke.
ReplyDeleteI think the bullish case would be we are completing 2 of an x1 impulse.
ReplyDeleteES
DeleteLooks like abc x abc
ReplyDeleteC of B was after the 830 numbers with the last C wave down now.
SPY 1-hr: best description at the moment.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/VhUjZMzd/
TJ
ES 30-min: if you look at the over-night intraday wave-counting-screen blue b-3 came in just shy of 1.618 a-3. Then there was a c-5, up.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/LTB5yI35/
Now the low is exceeded, and price is down to the S-2 intraday pivot (chart is the usual 10-min behind).
TJ
P.S. when 'potential' bullish falling wedges break down, instead of up, that is usually not a good sign. Note: on the ES 30-min intraday chart, the intraday bias is lower, currently, and the daily bias is lower, currently. So, while there may be a bunch of volatility, there is nothing bullish on the intraday chart at least until the 18-per MA is exceeded to the upside. TJ.
DeleteES 30-min: 2nd close below the band dropping the odds of the next bar closing below the band to 3 - 5%. Ira would probably say, "no new sells here" below the band, though ok to let some profits run if you wish. (Not trading or investment advice - just a paraphrase of what a broker typically says.). TJ.
ReplyDeleteES 30-min: it took four closes below the band to get a close inside the band, with probability 1 - 3%.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/2aMgJQ7P/
This resets the number of consecutive closes below the band.
TJ
note, too: the intraday slow stochastic is currently embedded. TJ.
DeleteThanks Tj. Let's assume if the top is in on a longer term chart then please suggest a bottom level range on a longer term. 3800-4000?
ReplyDeleteI have done that many, many times already. IFF the long-term top is in, and we don't even have downward overlap of this wave i, up, yet. Then the first chart in this post applies.
Deletehttps://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2024/06/weekend-es-review-m-o-b-and-alt.html
TJ
SPY 2-min: after impulse low (with a diagonal fifth), there appears to be a Flat or an
ReplyDeleteexpanded Flat.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/N0Jy43VU/
TJ
very weak structure ..a-3, b-3, c-5 morphed to w-x-y; all-threes. Very, very weak close. TJ.
DeleteThe bears do indeed appear .to be firmly in charge, and no wonder. Anyone passingly familiar with the history of FED rate policy understands why. Enjoy your week-end everyone!
ReplyDeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ