Today the ES futures roll-over contract made a new all-time high, as in the chart below, on the FOMC cutting interest rates by 50 basis points. However, neither the September nor the December contracts by themselves made new all-time highs. In the cash markets the SPY and the SPX did make higher all-time highs, but promptly fell off as well.
And while the Dow (YM) futures also did put in the new highs, the NDX (NQ) and the Russell (RTY) futures did not.
To keep things simple, today was also an outside key reversal day, down, but on very choppy trading. So, we must monitor the high of today's bar for the next two sessions in case all we did was take more time for a fourth internal wave per yesterday's post.
Yes, the choppy and non-confirming action may point to triangles being made - such as a barrier triangle at the high or possibly a diagonal, but structures like that remains to be fully formed. So, to keep it simple - for now - let's watch the high for two days while we wait to see if further downside develops.
Have an excellent start to the evening.
TraderJoe
The Dow high 41,982 just short of 42k posting a reversal candle
ReplyDeleteIn the final 5th wave of a large rare multi month expanding triangle. My bet the cycle turns down for 15 days. We shall see. Thanks TJ
Was the pop today a breakout frm triangle or it was b wave of flat
ReplyDeleteI have it as the d wave of an expanding triangle
Deletegrr....I believe the latter
ReplyDeleteI want this job!
ReplyDeletehttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=TSH7
We'll see how long the 10y 3m stays inverted
Deletehttps://postimg.cc/MnsvrGG6 trying to count this
ReplyDeleteSpinning tops, shooting stars, and outside reversal days down all just ahead of new ATHs. The algos are becoming too clever by half. Nothing changed what comes next. Lol!
ReplyDeletecant those be caused or explained by other market particpants piling into the "worst days of the year", "death by reinversion", layup trades, and algos taking the other side as support? its a dance rather than a solo perfromance
DeleteVery possible. My own view having observed this kind of price action for a few years, is that algos are programmed to actively trade the other side of what is generally considered reversal signals. Perhaps a distinction without a difference! 😊
Deletethey need liquidity which they create by taking out highs then lows or lows then highs, and its cheap to do overnight
DeleteAlso, when the futures are 60+ points ahead of the cash, isn't there a rather simple arbitrage play in there somewhere? TJ.
DeleteMarket has no tops but only bottoms.
ReplyDeleteES 15-min: other than a 100 pt opening up gap, nothing too unusual here, yet.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/16jbud
TJ
Lol! Just how "Smart" is that money, one does have to wonder!
DeleteES 15-min: now over the high; and can run a bit if it wants.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/16jcfh
TJ
CL has some overlap.
ReplyDelete