The monthly Dow futures (YM) remain in this count until measurements require otherwise: still in an Intermediate (3)rd wave, possibly of a contracting diagonal. Right now, things have progressed to the point where the Intermediate wave (4) is becoming more likely.
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| DOW (YM) Futures - Monthly - Intermediate (3) |
And within Intermediate (3), the following count appears to fit the data best on the weekly time scale.
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| DOW (YM) Futures - Weekly - Intermediate (3) Internals |
On the daily time scale, it looks like an expanding diagonal may end the minute ⓒ wave of the Minor Y wave. The daily chart is below.
The time now is to assess when the minuet (v)th wave is completed. It is currently longer than minuet wave (iii), as required by the pattern. But sometimes these waves run on to make a further Fibonacci relationship. The "c" wave within (v) could extend more to be more equal to the "a" wave at 43,167, or it can go longer if it wants. In any event, the usual overlap warning is noted should the pattern give way in the coming days or weeks.
The best alternate count remains that this is a "B" wave top, either at Intermediate degree, (B), or at Primary degree Ⓑ, but there is no point in invoking the alternate count until/unless the length of a (4)th wave should invalidate in the future.
Have an excellent rest of the weekend,
TraderJoe
Also counting the classically names "broadening wedge" in DJIA. It is textbook and not quite done. Amazing wedges of all types on monthly and yearly time-frames!
ReplyDelete*"meant "named"
DeleteThanks Tj. Every expiry from last 1 year the bears are exhausted. The gap in cash and futures have been a scene for almost an year.
ReplyDeleteEvery market crash is attributable to the exact same cause. Destruction of price discovery eliminates short- sellers who typically put a bottom in when they cover. "Bear Exhaustion" is only the tip of the iceberg. The persistent number of new lows is really startling at these new ATHs!
DeleteES 30-min: here is a reminder of the intraday wave-counting-screen with updated daily pivots and local fractals.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/CH5nW6bv/
Reminder: there is economic news scheduled for 09:45 ET (PMI's).
TJ
Manuf PMI = 47.0 vs 47.9 prior (contraction)
DeleteService PMI = 55.4 vs 55.7 prior (weaker but expanding still)
ES 30-min: first down (red) fractal back exceeded lower & snapback. TJ.
DeleteSPY 15-min: on Friday we said, the upward wave could extend more in time & price if it wanted to, even as a correction. So far, that's what it looks like.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/412ENPL3/
TJ
ES 30-min: as far as I can tell, the new 09:30 am down (red) fractal is meaningful in that breaking it would likely indicate a sideways contracting triangle is not being formed and a downward pattern may have to be considered. Right now, it is still sideways.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/1QPhz1FY/
P.S. pattern getting very over-lappy. TJ.
TJ
..and the 10 am green (up) fractal - shown above - is now valid, too. TJ.
DeleteThe flag cancel?
ReplyDeleteSPY 5-min: one ugly triangle now possible & valid. Other patterns possible, too.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/9r3Nus5K/
TJ
Now a larger triangle (blue) or a downward diagonal (red). I guess the bulls are just 'over-joyed' with trading this, right?
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/68U9deZJ/
TJ
triangle invalidation level added..
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/YQbYENFS/
TJ
..and back up to center-line.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/h655vZGM/
TJ
ES 30-min: two more recent fractals to monitor. Still largely sideways, but patterns other than a triangle can play out. Caution, patience and flexibility needed as the market makes it very, very difficult to discern the patterns.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/qM6QdKSR/
Nothing in cash has invalidated yet.
TJ
Looks to me like once again price consolidation ahead of an impending move higher. Looking for an ascent to top boundary of rising expanding wedge, maybe an overthrow for good measure!
ReplyDeleteSPY 5-min: nice little interior triangle. Blue count is for the triangle, red count is for the potential expanding diagonal now that it is long enough in price for a wave iv.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/rA4GHe8T/
TJ
SPY 5-min: added invalidation level for the red downward diagonal count.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/qnuA8rDE/
TJ
Do the dow monthly waves 1 and 3 at top of post count as impulses as well?
ReplyDeleteThey don't count 'best' that way. For example, within (1) the 'clean' impulses are A & C. There is no 1.618 wave from A. And within (3) the 'clean' impulses are just the ⓐ waves. Neither (1) or (3) by itself can be counted using The Eight-Fold-Path Method. They typically do not have the 50 - 62% retraces, and they do not have fourth waves which are very long in time. Or they violate degree labeling. For example, if you labeled ⓐ of W as 1, then 2 would be longer in 'time' than the prior (2) - which violates degree definitions.
DeleteTJ
Quite a conundrum looking for diagonal when 3 may not be over
DeleteAnd when the NQ already has a 'longer' wave, i.e. (3) > (1) when the ES and YM do not. But, in some ways that provides a measure of confidence that this is, in fact, a '(3)' in those indexes. They're just not longer than their (1)'s yet. TJ.
DeleteES SPY (CFD) Futures - 1 Hr - Here's some eye-candy before the economic news and the open. Yesterday's triangle held up - just barely - as an 'interior triangle'. Now there is a higher high.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/16ld-c
TJ
Reminder: further econ reports at the top of the hour. TJ.
ReplyDeleteBlecchh ..! Except the futures didn't actually make a higher high, themselves yet. Fricken CFD's!
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Q47QB3Ym/
TJ
So maybe a 'longer in time' barrier triangle in ES futures? Could wobble around a bit yet.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/ZQk98ztj/
TJ
Richmond FED Manuf -21 vs -19 prior; Consumer Confidence 98.7%.
ReplyDeleteTJ
ES/SPY (CFD) Futures - until we know more, perhaps the gray and the red count (diagonal and barrier triangle) should be considered equivalent.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/16lghd
TJ
SPX - Cash (not SPY). SPX went over the top again. SPY did not. This is getting testy up here.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/ZPg4GAe0/
TJ
you see 3 wave upward patterns on many time frames. if they were 5 waves instead, not so testy?
Deleteby 'testy' I mean futures not making a new high yet, while SPX has; and SPY not making new highs yet, while SPX has. If we are making a diagonal in cash, then it will be 'five-waves' even if it fails. And I always 'try' to count five waves first, until I can't - usually required by overlaps. So please don't suggest that I don't try. It's a bit condescending. Thx in advance. TJ.
DeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ