The chart below is the SPY 30-min timeframe. The update is prior to the results of the FOMC update scheduled for Wednesday at 14:00 ET.
Possible for a fourth wave to be a triangle, to be a failure swing at this location, or to drop lower in a flat. The Elliott Wave Oscillator (EWO or AO) is below zero indicating a fourth wave.
Have an excellent rest of the evening,
TraderJoe
At this point, can't you reasonably rule out the a-b-c count on that chart?
ReplyDeleteIt's the Fourth Wave Conundrum for fourth waves at every degree of trend. I've said 'yes' before and - from personal experience - had them break down to overlap and more. If the a-b-c is part of a diagonal or triangle it can't be reasonably be ruled out yet. If the wave is 'part' of a "C" wave of a 'larger' diagonal or triangle, then 'maybe' it can be called over. But, 'usually' 4th waves make a 38% retrace. This one hasn't. So, is what is 'reasonable' what is 'usual'? If so, it may not be over yet. Worse, price could just grind sideways in a triangle, or it could 'drop' in a diagonal. Or, the pattern could go on to make a double-three or triple-three. Right now, there are more ways to make a fourth wave and then a fifth wave up, so based on that one might give slight 'odds' to the a,b,c being over. But slight odds are nothing to place a heavy wager on (just my opinion; not trading or investment advice).
DeleteTJ
Also, keep in mind - that because there is no downward overlap, yet - this is also a reasonable way to count upward, resulting in an 'alt' red c/iii, and the lower channel boundary could still be attacked either as a solo zigzag, as a triangle or as a larger down wave. This puts a third wave iii above the upper channel line.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/4PLa2QS2/
This is pretty dicey stuff so high up in the wave count. So, caution, patience and flexibility are the by-words. And as Ira often says, "Do you think I'll have positions open during a major FOMC report out? Guess again (i.e. No)." Again, not trading or investment advice - just a paraphrase of one broker's guidelines.
TJ
ES 30-min: here is the intraday wave-counting screen with updated daily pivots and local fractals. It was very sideways overnight, and the bands are narrow.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/ZOSn2fxV/
The latest green (up) fractal has been exceeded higher.
TJ
First down (red) fractal back exceeded lower. TJ.
DeleteSecond down (red) fractal back exceeded lower. Next, down (red) fractal is not until yesterday's low. TJ.
DeleteHere's those first two down (red) fractal breaks lower.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/8gmZbX2w/
TJ
ES 30-min: another down (red) fractal broken and a close below the band, then a whippy outside reversal bar after a 90% down move.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/5m1UOoll/
TJ
SPY 30-min: in the original blue count, the lower channel line was touched by the prior drop giving a very 'provisional' fourth wave, blue iv.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/MUVnOXyF/
This is dependent on this morning's lows holding, and new highs being made before new lows are made. IF a fourth wave wants to go deeper, it can.
TJ
Reminder: FOMC decision scheduled for the top of the hour (14:400 ET) to be followed by Press Conference (14:30 ET).
ReplyDeleteFOMC : 50 with 50 to follow. TJ
ReplyDeleteI assume you mean 50 bps now and 50 bps to follow. Where did you get that from exactly? That's not anywhere in the FOMC statement.
DeleteSPY 30-min: there is likely the proof of impulsivity.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/wZbLbREL/
TJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ