The overall count of Intermediate (3) from the prior post in monthly and weekly time frames continues unabated. There is nothing amiss with it yet. This chart is the local hourly count in the S&P500 cash index, given that the wave ii to wave iv trend line has been broken.
This count is only possible because a new high in this index was made today. It should be noted that futures and cash SPY did not make the new high yet. Further, I do not know that wave ③ shown is completely done. There could be overnight news or a gap that will move it higher in price, and perhaps remove the seeming anomalies of the SPY and the futures not having made a higher high yet.
Note that in contracting diagonals the usual expectation is that waves ① and ③ will express their motive character by being over their prior wave highs, so this count shows them reflected this way.
There can be a fifth wave up over the high, and it could travel a bit. It 'could' also fail, but we expect the pattern to complete - until or unless it doesn't.
Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
Sorry. I know you count best. it's about like the double slit experiment the waves are a wave probability right now where we think we see 3s. As far as condescending it's opposite, I don't spend my time with people I can't learn from and don't respect.
ReplyDeleteThere's truth in that double-slit experiment analogy. Something isn't observed until its waves are 'seen'. TJ.
DeleteOn a 15 minute charts there were 2 high made , one around noon central time and other at close. The reason I am bringing it on 15 minutes one can argue the 5th was made or started around.close on cash...just a possibility
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/SPfx94zQ/
ReplyDeleteBarrier triangle also an option with d towards the close?
ReplyDeleteIt's worthwhile noting that the Dow futures did not play games with the new high like the ES futures did.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/pzOZK61V/
TJ
We are pushing against 5800 on futures for the 4th time. Today we should break above it, but I think it won't last long at all.
ReplyDelete..ES 30-min: finally ES makes a new ATH. TJ.
ReplyDeleteHere is.another way that ED can play out..https://www.tradingview.com/x/UdLRRZAB/
ReplyDeleteNo, I don't think so.. as I wrote about (i) of a diagonal should be 'over' the prior high to show its motive character. TJ.
DeleteES 30-min: Reminder of the intraday wave-counting-screen with updated daily pivots and local fractals. Need to take out the 2 AM fractal at 5,773.50 to start any trouble.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/QDf2TuQc/
TJ
sorry, typo: 3 AM at 5,773.50 fractal. TJ.
DeleteYM (Dow) Futures - 4 Hr: here are the Dow futures on this time scale. Same rough count as the ES. The lower diagonal line has been breached. The Dow can be counted in five-waves down on a 5-min chart, so it merits watching to see if a retrace does or does not go over the high. Further, the Dow tagged R1, then fell down through PP and S1, and lower.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/knI8Piwi/
TJ
ES 30-min: contracting diagonal down in ES futures. Watch the high. TJ.
ReplyDeleteES 30-min: two last down (red) fractals exceeded lower.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Opb2CrSr/
TJ
ES 5-min: diagonal converts to impulse. Chart to follow.
ReplyDeleteHere is the ES / SPY (CFD) diagonal converting to the impulse. This isn't exactly accurate because it's not just the futures. But the equivalent is even cleaner in the futures.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/16m2bo
TJ
Dow (YM) 1-Hr: the Dow futures have entirely broken down out of their wedge (they could still have a hefty rebound at any time).
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/7ijSfY2f/
The ES futures currently remain in their hourly wedge.
TJ
This upward coiling and consolidation before the big Thursday econ numbers makes me feel they are going to blast up out of here tomorrow. This "feels like" a B wave before C up but I guess we'll see soon enough. I saw an article noting we are testing the market valuations of the dot com bubble - fwiw
ReplyDeleteGold is there.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/lEn38C8
See 12:03 pm ET. TJ.
DeleteSPX (cash) 1-Hr; SPX would have a limit as shown in this count. Other counts (such as the triangle) allow for higher waves.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/uHXrjZzU/
TJ
ES 30-min: here is the intraday wave-counting-screen with updated daily pivots and local fractals. I 'highly' encourage you to study the pattern of fractals, or actually 'lack' of fractals made in the overnight trade from the time of the initial contracting diagonal.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/HGxy2HOK/
This is a similar picture to what happens on the daily chart when the bars "just go from one daily Bollinger Band to the opposite one" as in what Ira calls a "vertical price move". Also, look at the "length" of this up wave from the initial contracting diagonal. It is currently 2.618 to within "one tick".
TJ
Now looking like 'five-down', so again, this calls for monitoring the high for a retrace that does not go over the high.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/6Nwnhkx1/
TJ
ES 30-min: here is a three-touch trend line of interest.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/fJ2q0B5i/
TJ
Prior two closes below the lower band drops the odds to 3 - 5% of next close being outside the band. Not impossible - just lowering odds.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/inztbclS/
TJ
Now three closes below the band drops the odds to 2 - 4% of next close being outside the band. Not impossible - just lower odds. TJ.
DeleteGOLD (GC) Futures - 1 Mon - the monthly chart suggests to keep drawing parallels until we can not. Though a 'local' high certainly may be present.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/L6M9zQIK/
TJ
On the same page. Thx!
DeleteES 30-min: close inside the band resets the number of consecutive closes.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/iE8FNtIr/
TJ
SPX 1-Hr: opening gap filled. ES down to daily pivot. Intraday slow stochastic still embedded.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/6JjSJHHh/
TJ
That false breakout created triple bearish divergence on the 4hr rsi. High probability that we just topped. Still looks like an abc completed from the low on September 6th
ReplyDeleteThat huge triangular top in NVDA with wave E tells me a high probability of a top.
ReplyDeletewhats a high probability ? its hard to have high batting average calling tops,
ReplyDeleteNo kidding just ask Robert Prechter. That reversal today must be reversed tomorrow though.
Deletei want to explain what i mean by "high probabiity" and "batting averages", as example we would need a vix of 6 ( 1 day std is 37 bps) for us to have 2/3 of chance of top holding tomorrow if you believe the market has random noise and 0 mean for tomorrow.. Correspondingly if you assume on average tomorrow is down 1% plus noise, 1/3 of time you still see a new high if vix>22. At todays vix, if you assume on average market down 60 bps you would still make a new high 33% of time. so if its high probability we are making a top (95%), you should be expecting, on average, to have forecast of -1.50% tomorrow.
DeleteI didn't mean a final top. I meant a top for this wave. A final move up into mid October is absolutely possible.
DeleteI see 3 overlapping waves down from the top, which have already been overlapped to the upside.
ReplyDeletehttps://postimg.cc/QKLt2PW1
ES/SPY both can count expanding diagonal of 5 waves to low with <62% retrace thus far if im not mistaken. Alternatively 5 waves down than exapnding flat. Or 3 waves down. and then theres a possible diagonal forming invalidated above 5814 with time constraint in next hour. maximum uncertainty.
ReplyDeleteIt looks like your "expanding diagonal" is missing a new low in the 3rd wave, marc.
DeleteBut if you post an annotated chart, perhaps you can show how this is a correct Elliott Wave count?
I think that today's drop in the NDX can be counted as an "impulse", in contrast to the SPX.
Deletethis is spy? , https://postimg.cc/R3sDypr0 unsure now on ES
DeleteThe Dow printed a inside candle today and the NDX had a black reversal candle. The market should be down hard tomorrow. But in this surreal market i rule out nothing,
ReplyDeleteMy best guess because of only a 50 retrace for 2 and it is dying in the channel.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/6GkIKl4
Yes, there is definitely some 'analysis paralysis' going on here. My take on it is that IF it's a five-wave down count, it counts like this for the reasons following the link.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/no3nazDd/
1. There is a fractal of the whole pattern to follow at the first Ⓐ, down on the left.
2. Wave iii has a new low.
3. Wave v < iii < i.
4. There are a 'bunch' of overlaps.
5. On the EWO on the 5-min, there are divergences on ③, and again on ⑤.
I will be the first to admit if it's not a 'five-down'. It is very compressed, and it didn't travel very far yet. We need some waves with 'length'. One factor in favor of five-down is the Dow didn't go over the high today like the ES did.
Anyway, the ES 30-min 'wave-counting-screen' was pretty clear where not to "short new" as per the adaptation of Ira's guidelines below the intraday Bollinger Bands. That is a 'pretty good' probability advisor - not perfect, but readers were kept abreast of the percentages (3 - 5%, 2 - 4%, etc.).
TJ
I should also mention another factor in favor is degree labeling: blue ii, up, is a lot bigger than the first Ⓑ, up, in both price and time. TJ.
Deleteexcellent
DeleteThat ii is a flat and not a simple ZZ.
Delete@BBR or within ii, the very first bar is 'a' (but too hard to show on chart), then an expanded flat 'b', then 'c' of a zigzag. But, that's where it gets into analysis paralysis. Yes, that 'b' wave is 90%, so that's where I'd say I'd be the first to agree with a three if the market proves it wrong. I did see that, too. TJ.
DeleteTHX for the response.
DeleteTj. I don't know from where the supply of money is coming. Canada TSX reached all time high when the core economy is in a pathetic state. Corporate Bankruptcies are all time high. As if markets have no tops.
ReplyDelete"Leverage". Lol!
DeleteSlow motion weimar. German mkts soared in early 20s also, with their official sector fiat counterfeiting. Now its global. Just ask gold.
DeleteES 30-min: here is the intraday wave-counting-screen with updated daily pivots and local fractals. There is one close outside the upper band. Probability about 5 - 7%.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/OY6FyvYu/
The slow stochastic is over-bought (it might embed, but hasn't yet). And there is now downward overlap on yesterday's up peak.
TJ
ES 5-min: "count by fives until you can no longer."
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/9RSY8R8r/
TJ
Japan crashed last night. Just waiting for the Dow to reverse and flash crash.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/90i2TU20/
ReplyDelete#Dow https://i.postimg.cc/PJZN3R3c/Screenshot-21.jpg
ReplyDelete#NVDA https://i.postimg.cc/wTnYTBBh/Screenshot-17.jpg
ReplyDeleteThat's probably it. Japan started down. We shall see.
ReplyDeleteThis market is so pavlovian have never seen anything like it.
ReplyDeleteWere you trading in 1999?
DeleteHere are the Dow (YM) futures daily at the moment. The Principle of Equivalence Applies, although it is "one heck of a wedge".
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/7OxYmvvg/
TJ
ES 5-min - fwiw - there is now downward overlap. TJ.
ReplyDeleteES 30-min: here's the overlap, the daily pivot touch, and the prior down (red) fractal break.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/ropYAkh0/
TJ
fyi only - SPY opening gap filled. TJ.
DeleteWhat could possibly go wrong here? Japan 4hr https://i.postimg.cc/mDQg76dg/Screenshot-23.jpg
ReplyDeleteSPY 5-min: sure 'looks like' five waves down including a >1.618 extension and a 0.382 retrace, followed by a lower low. Can go further if it wants.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/wY7NL558/
TJ
ES 30-min: the second down (red) fractal back has been exceeded lower.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Ike9U7am/
TJ
SPY 5-min: now likely into upward wave ('maybe' correction) as the price length of ④ and ② have been exceeded in 'less time'.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/l5TC9KWD/
TJ
Nice to see TJ says it looks like 5 down...Thx TJ.....Japan still falling - 1710
ReplyDeleteES 30-min: prior third down (red) fractal back exceeded lower, and further down yet in next bar. Also contact with lower band.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/DoZj5DZf/
TJ
SPY 5-min: Just discussing the correction here. Because b-3 counts best as a 'three', and it is longer than 1.618, then it is 'possible' that c-5 is a failure. So, if b-3 fails lower in the overnight Sun/Mon it may signal a very weak wave. Watch carefully. Be flexible, calm and patient. (Next most likely is a triangle with a larger 'c' wave to follow it.)
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/x2Wg7iSS/
TJ
ontime basis starting to look like move off top is higher degree, but not on price yet. do we have a complted abc flat from high?
DeleteI find it interesting that in this count below C is 0.786 of A and D is 0.786 of B. If this is correct one more high to complete ed
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/h2XzKw81/
From grr
DeleteInteresting count below. C 0.786 of A and D 0.786 of B. E left (a played out today)https://www.tradingview.com/x/h2XzKw81/
The past 2 days in the SPX look very "triangular" to my eyes. Perhaps another 4th wave is forming?
ReplyDeletehttps://postimg.cc/9RkPh64F
The forward eps on top 8 stocks in sp500 versus 2000 internet are trading around 60% and cash per share is twice as high. I don't think internet bubble is good analogy
ReplyDeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ