There's nothing happening yet except for continual whipping, grinding, and wedging. So, looking at the weekly count with 100 candles, one also sees that the Elliott Wave Oscillator is not yet near the zero line. It is, however, diverging. So, in the impulse version of the count for the ES, this could indicate we are still in a triangle or some other fourth wave, as follows.
In the corrective version of the count, prices would have to start down lower pretty quickly. Again, the corrective version of the count might fit with the diagonal, but the time is getting quite long for that to occur.
Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
I looked at that a few days back as well. I am using the daily to get the right number of candles on the triangle. Two things I did not like was c is lower on the EWO than a and it does not look like the chunky or messy waves of a triangle.
ReplyDeleteRight, and yet a triangle is the only structure I know that can erase the degree violation of that c wave down (being larger than 2, or X). So, that's why it is presented for consideration. I can't make the market move - only the Smart Money (large hedge funds, institutions, retirement funds, etc.) can. I just do my best to count and am happy when we get some of 'em right like the local count in Gold (GC), the weekly triangle in Crude, etc. TJ.
DeleteThis count will also erases the degree violation, I think.
DeleteShould measure net distance?
https://invst.ly/16gt22
That was my thinking, net distance for a triangle should work for a flat as well.
DeleteI hate how waves 1 and 3 have corrections right in the middle of them.
Is what it is.
bias is up closed it over the 18 dma
ReplyDeleteI wonder what Ralph Nelson Elliott would say about this market. Does any analysis work any more? Not like any topping process I can remember.
ReplyDeleteThere is no higher high yet; so it still can be W-X-Y from the Oct 2022 low. But, price would need to start down pretty quickly. TJ.
DeleteWave structures are now so complex (constant intervention) EW analysis not too effective for near term directional guidance imo. Still a good intermediate term tool, especially when coupled with other metrics. FWIW, we have two official Hindenburg Omens on the cl
DeleteES 30-min: not entirely sure but looks like 'two' overnight triangles.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/P35zHF6z/
TJ
By dropping under 5,609 the second triangle has crossed under its prior wave ③ and is now validated. If it breaks down instead of up, it is following the triple zigzag (diagonal) from the high. Chart is behind the usual 10-min.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/AfkW7dNu/
TJ
..now up and over triangle high; confirming it or a diagonal if it starts grinding.
DeleteTJ
Not shown, Consumer Confidence at 10 am ET made a wide-ranging bar. Watch high and low of bar, and/or low of triangle.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/v6Mfd7L9/
TJ
Well that August Federal Deficit number of 380 billion tells me that our Country is up the creek without a paddle. Can the Fed cut? No not really,but these imbeciles are so stupid and corrupt anything can happen. Anyway here is my chart of GS. I think this market could turn any second and start to collapse. end of my bear rant. https://i.postimg.cc/4yrVhVc3/Screenshot-27.jpg
ReplyDeleteThe Dow 12hr chart....wave E's can fail
Deletehttps://i.postimg.cc/rmRP6CqV/Screenshot-28.jpg
New ATH highs foregone conclusion at least for DJIA it would appear.
ReplyDeleteWell, well, well - another noon high on Wall $treet. TJ.
ReplyDeleteES 4-hr / 5 min: all I can say is we have a 5-min wedge inside of a larger 4-hr wedge, and the 5-min has come off the high.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/hkQzlxrr/
TJ
Yes exactly
Deletethe first one can be conted as an impulse
DeletePlan is to notch new high into the close it appears so likely a small 4th underway.
ReplyDeleteIt looks like C of B. If true next week is going to gap down hard for the larger C wave to 5100
ReplyDeletei am curious why no one is asking, 1) why is market rallying in the worst seasonla pattern, 2) why is market rallying when its supposed to do poorly after the "un" inversion, 3) thus the "surprise"is the week quarter year day and (possible month) are climbing wall of worry. The macro signals included massive crush in volatility and a powerful 9 day consectinve up rally last month. Maybe there are answers... I start my EW by looking for impulses. After 3 down its 4thw wave uncertaity every time, the larger the degree the more important to be open minded. Not trading advice.
ReplyDeleteWhat have algos been programmed to do since June 30? Give simplest 3 letter reply starting with B. Maybe they change the programming soon.
DeleteOh, some of us are indeed smilingly wondering. The market essentially at all time highs with moribund money velocity, red flag territory of market price to GDP, pending FED rate cutting cycle, and two Official HOs on the clock, the first through end of October and a stunning seven observations. Nothing new, under the Sun...we all know exactly how this ends! Enjoy your week-end!
DeleteI would love to say I only count impulses at the start of every wave. But I am trained by 25 years of experience to 'count only what I can see and measure". Here is the wave off the top. I knew the moment I saw it.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/68C9Kwek/
It's an expanding leading diagonal. There is a "deep retrace" after it and a lower low. So, it 'still' could be a-b-c down. I'm just counting what I see with as few preconceived ideas as I can muster.
TJ
To add, I think if people don't recognize that the market/market-makers are using diagonals and triangles at every turn - to try to confuse - then one might be a little naive (and there is nothing personal there - just my view on EW counting.) TJ.
Deleteit has all been manipulated by market makers,CEO's and the Fed/Gov. I still think the plan is to push the market up as high as the demand will take it. Then when the decline starts,even if it declines 50 to 65 pct they are still ahead of the game. But it could go lower and that's the chance they take. These People are not students of markets,currency management and certainly not history.
DeleteWhy even think about this. Study the technicals and forget about what "they"are doing. We stopped at 90% retrace of the move down with the rsi showing bear divergences and the vix in a falling wedge. If that's not a signal to at least take a shot at selling this market I don't know what is.
DeleteLooks like 5 off the top
Delete@458african, you are correct insofar as 1) Nixon decoupled GOLD from the US Dollar, 2) they have eliminated the prohibition on banks trading (Clinton repealed the Glass-Steagall act), 3) Bush eliminated the mark-to-market accounting rules, which have not been put back on, 4) company stock buy-backs, which used to be illegal, are now the rage, and 5) during the pandemic - and probably still on-going - Gary Gensler, Head of SEC - literally had to 'call' hedge fund managers to stop them from secretive 'texting' of trades to collaborate on which is patently illegal. I saw a clip of an interview he did where he said this in point of fact.
DeleteIf there is 'any' way these gangsters can cheat, they will try it. Let's not even get into the whole Crypto scam companies, and jail sentences.
TJ
i apologize if my tone clouded my message. i meant that impulses when they can be counted are my primary not an alternate. As far as the diagonals etc makingthings very obscure, there are methids using neely high to low and also considering the use of closing pricw which while maybe not traditional often guide you inthe proper path. I always have the neely plots for 6 time frmaes and they take out the noise, again we all want to establish the best probability estimates, no one knows
DeleteI apologize if my message is clouded. I want to see a fourth wave in that up count to call it an impulse. I am very open-minded that it could form. There is a deep retrace after the two-hourly diagonal, so that means the third wave could be extended, and it 'should not' wedge. It 'should' parallel or fan-out a bit; alla Neely. TJ.
DeleteI'll keep it simple - like this in SPY.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/M4Mm9MVm/
TJ
How about open to idea there was a failure at the 0 on the blue channel and an complete impulse up has been printed?
Delete@marc ..You'd have to show me what larger count compels the failure. I'm a reasonable person. Otherwise, what I can 'see' is the diagonal up, and a deep retrace. TJ.
Deletethis is best i can do
Deletehttps://postimg.cc/gallery/TGQWQx8
it had to fail so A and C less than W
Deletemaybe some labels have to move for degree violatins of X and B, but thats general idea
DeleteI get the gist. But second waves 2, and B, waves can also clearly be failures of their first 1 wave or their A wave. This can also make the 3 or C wave an impulse wave. That is part of the reason for The Principle of Equivalence, and why the fourth wave - or not - must answer the question. The 'length' of the C or 3 wave normally would make us 'err' on the side of 3, but even that is not reliable in triangles and diagonals especially.
DeleteTJ
I don't understand the failure of 2nd and b wave. Are you saying what you think is a second wave fails by invalidating itself
DeleteNo. Not saying that. Wave 2 'fails' to take out the low of wave 1, by definition. It must by the 'rules'. Wave B 'fails' to take out the low of wave A, by definition (except in a Flat). TJ.
DeleteES 5-min: By 'measurement' If below 5,619 a contracting wedge would be 'done'; only an expanding one could remain. Explanation below four-cannot-be-longer-than-two.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/1annvTe3/
TJ
These markets SPX/NDX after the last decline(impulsive?) rallied to .618 and then is selling off in the futes,. I'm not holding my breath though. Have a great weekend and thanks TJ
ReplyDeleteWelcome & you, too @458african. TJ.
DeleteRead Jesse Livermore and Richard Ney. Nothing on Wall Street has changed on 100 years or more. The SEC is a joke. That's why we NEED Elliot Wave and volume as well as other indicators to tell us what the big money is doing.
ReplyDeleteHello! (sorry for my English) I would like to humbly leave you my scenario for the SP500 to see what you think. SP500 Futures 4H chart.
ReplyDeletehttps://postimg.cc/q6hyKPsn
I think September 11th gave us a clue by avoiding a clear 0B line (5/8 and 6/9). Important events for me: quarterly expiration + fed (yellow b) / US NFPs (yellow c) / US elections (end of the big ABC). If the price exceeds the yellow a, the scenario is invalidated (it is very close +/- 45 points). The scenario is similar on the Nasdaq. Have a nice weekend!
That's a very nice chart. Good thinking, and thanks for posting a chart that 'does' follow the rules. TJ.
DeleteAnd that's a lot of volatility, we see this pattern inow vol environments and take it for granted. Proposing it in high vol regimes is not as intuitive to me highlightomh my bias
Delete