Sunday, September 8, 2024

Two Things to Watch in GOLD (GC)

The 4-Hr chart of Gold Futures (GC) is below. There are two items to watch based on the upper left-hand side of the chart being a Minor 3 wave as per daily and weekly studies. So far on the left, the chart looks like three waves down to an a-3 wave, then three-waves up to a b-3 wave precisely at the 90% level for a Flat. This level is shown by the Fibonacci ruler. Then, there are five waves down for the potential c-5 wave to finish the flat. Next, there appear to be five waves up for another a wave, up, then a b wave down in three-waves to form an upwardly sloping parallel channel. The whole mess looks very, very sideways, and it is intriguing that the b-3 wave up made exactly the 90% level.

GOLD (GC) Futures - 4 Hr - Flat ?

So, if we are getting a flat, we may be building a much larger wave Minor 4, which, itself could be a larger Flat or Expanded Flat. So, the two items two watch are these:

  • Does price go up over the a wave to make a new high, possibly in the (b)-3 wave of a larger Flat or Expanded Flat starting from the (a)-3 wave? Or,
  • Does price crack below the down (red) fractal at the c-5/(a)-3 low?
Once again - as we stated earlier - we are following Gold's parallels higher until we can no longer. But as of this time there are much larger parallels that can play out on Gold's upward drift.

P.S. There is likely not overlap of waves & in the c-5 wave. It is very, very difficult to say where wave ended its downward travel, and there may be a flat wave after it. This is the second post this weekend and if you have not read the first one, you may wish to read it now.

Have an excellent rest of the weekend,
TraderJoe

7 comments:

  1. On the daily, this would be nice if it was part of diagonal but I have to use a specific month to get rid of the rollover shenanigans.

    https://imgur.com/LnkMZic


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    Replies
    1. No, I don't think so. Wave 4 in a diagonal 'should not be' a flat, and this is a 90% wave up. Consider the diagonal already completed as follows to wave 3.

      https://www.tradingview.com/x/u7C3VwWM/

      TJ

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    2. Thx for the response. I will work in the expanding ending diagonal into my charts and take a look.

      How is that book coming along? I will need a few copies for sure!

      Delete
  2. This is the best I have so far in the down direction. The two counts are equivalent until they are not.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/T6kqti2e/

    TJ

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    Replies
    1. SPY just overlapped your counting stop.

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    2. Yes, only iv is dead in SPY 1-hr. These are the next best.

      https://www.tradingview.com/x/1YJ7Khju/

      TJ

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  3. Gold count makes sense TJ - esp as Dollar looks like it's bottoming in this 100 area. Seems that Dollar getting close to rallying and gold will selloff as well in coming months.

    ReplyDelete