The Next Task

As bewildering as the daily, weekly and monthly counts might be, the next task before us is much simpler and more straightforward. According to The Eight-Fold-Path Method for counting an impulse wave, the SPY 15-minute chart currently has about 136 candles for 'the wave of interest', as shown below. Note that the Elliott Wave Oscillator (EWO/AO) is already near the location where a fourth wave can be valid (+10% to -40%) of the peak of wave iii/c. 

SPY Cash - 15min - The Eight-Fold-Path Method

So, if the whole wave sequence in the channel is to form an impulse wave, then a potential ivth wave should hold the 38 - 50% retracement level as given by the Fibonacci ruler. As you can see, this is also the area of a prior ④th wave of one lower degree. If this level (or above) holds for a fourth wave, even if it is a triangle, then the potential is to make the vth wave higher. If not, we simply accept a,b,c up and look for either a larger triangle or diagonal, upward or downward, that these three waves can be a part of.

As it stands, wave iii/c is just inside of a 2.618 extension and is realistic for that reason. We'll also note that wave ii/b is a Flat wave, and so wave iv - if it forms with alternation - would likely be in the zigzag or triangle category. We have also shown the clear overlap level on wave a/i, up.

And that is about the extent of what the method provides. If you are not familiar with it, The Eight-Fold-Path Method is a link in the Featured Post in the upper right-hand corner of the main blog page.

Have an excellent rest of the weekend.

TraderJoe