From the prior long-term chart to this shorter-term one on SPY (cash) hourly. This up wave is a very, very tortured one.
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| SPY Cash - 1 Hr - Very Difficult Count |
The count works in cash and may have had a failure in cash. The RSI diverges and diverges. Momentum trend lines are broken, as shown. A potential wave ④ has been broken lower. In the ES futures, a fourth wave with a difficult shape may have been made yesterday, and a failure fifth made in the overnight. There are 'five-waves-up" to finish yesterday night's futures up wave.
Still, downward length is needed, along with breaking of prior lower key levels (iv and ii).
Also, one chart on sentiment. The five-day-average of the Equity-only Put-Call Ratio is now down in the zone of speculation as of yesterday and the prior Friday. For the first time in over a year, the five-day average of the equity put-call ratio is down in the zone of speculation again.
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| CBOE $CPCE Equity Only Put-Call Ratio - 5 Day Average - Speculation |
Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
fyi - a sentiment chart was added at the end shortly after the close, if you didn't see it. TJ.
ReplyDeleteYep. BPI also in nose-bleed territory.
DeleteTj when u have time can u see nvdia chart. Is that a triangle forming. Its something so obvious that I want to make i am sure I am not missing something. Although I don't see a complex wave in it except A. Thanks
ReplyDeleteThat triangle has a measured target of about 60
DeleteA is at the top after the first move off the top,then B,C,D,and E just a distribution pattern.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/44Etq4LM/
ReplyDeleteYes, what you are missing is the historically documented nature of triangles. Yes, they 'can' break upwards (in this case) and make a new high. One uses the 80-20 rule to say 80% of the time they do, but 20% of the time they don't. Many prior technical analysts (Edwards & Magee, Neely, etc.) site triangles that 'break down' that 20% of the time. That's where ole-time traders developed the saying that, "trading is treacherous in triangles". They did it for a reason.
DeleteIt is documented that one can not "call" a contracting triangle until all five legs are "in" the market, and a new higher high is made. And triangles tend to be very, very symmetric. So, if this is one, there is possibly more downside to go, as the bottom trend line tilts up too much, compared to the top one.
So, the best one can do in the interim is to show the "alternate" - what happens if the triangle breaks down & not up. The best offense in this case is a good defense. So, the alternate labels are shown in red.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/c2HhSaMf/
If there is a breakdown, then the pattern could be a double zigzag, a triple zigzag (w-x-y, w-x-y-x-z) or an expanding diagonal, either leading or ending.
Sorry, but this is the nature of "true" alternates in Elliott Wave.
TJ
Thanks for your analysis
ReplyDeletewelcome. TJ.
DeleteThis is starting to look like a massive top in the SPX cash.
ReplyDeleteWhat I have on my triangle checklist is to watch for a smaller triangle inside what I think is a bigger one, for an x wave.
ReplyDeleteB wave triangle on spy - E wave should finish at close
ReplyDeletehttps://fortune.com/2024/10/01/economy-roaring-20s-ubs-growth-unemployment-inflation/
ReplyDeleteb & ii are at slightly different locations depending on whether this is a true sideways triangle or a failed double-combo.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/1CPUXJit/
TJ
SPY does now have a lower low than the 10:30 - 11:30 lows. TJ.
DeleteOn ES, Im thinking 4 of x1 impulse.
ReplyDeleteThis count would work if 5 waves down would.be c and previous high with all chopping was b
DeleteTJ,
ReplyDeleteFYI, you have a blatant trading recommendation spam post further up in the chain.
Thanks for catching that. Removed. The guy or bot has been spamming me. TJ.
DeleteWelcome of course.
DeleteThere's a megaphone look to this move from the top (futures). If we pump tomorrow it may be 4 completing with 5 finishing next week.
ReplyDeletesee below @ 10:19 am & thanks for contributing. TJ.
DeleteES 30-min: here's the intraday wave-counting-screen with updated daily pivots and local fractals. The Payroll report busted prices out the previous lower range, and it is now back up to the resistance area R2.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/RKaI4eup/
I can see one way to make a higher high: that is to have everything downward be part of a very-long-in-time uncountable wave iv. This would be v. But it certainly does not have to.
TJ
..two closes outside of the band; drops the odds to 3 - 5% of the next close being outside the band. 'Intraday' slow stochastic still embedded. TJ.
DeleteES 30-min: close inside the band now resets the number of consecutive closes.
DeleteTJ
..intraday slow stochastic loses embedded status. TJ.
DeleteIF there is a down count, I think it is as Roberto sensed above and shown in the link below.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/gP723DG8/
TJ
C down
ReplyDeleteOr yes could be 5 but it's very strong for 5.
DeleteYes 5 looks correct. C wave shouldn't really bounce like this. So a panic close and a gap up on Monday? Would be perfect
Deletelike it
DeleteNo panic low Monday if it's correct. I guess we'll have some news over the weekend if true.
DeleteSPY cash (15-min) fills the high-to-open gap but not the close-to-open gap yet.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/11PT7QfA/
TJ
I sure don't like that compact H & S top in the Dow cash.
ReplyDeleteSomething has to give at some point.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/eLxyZVti/
TJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ.