The ES futures situation has not changed much in the last two days. Either we've topped, or we are making a time-wasting triangle as shown below. Either is acceptable in the overall Elliott Wave count.
Last night's down wave is greater than 62% of the prior up wave make for an increased likelihood of a triangle's symmetry. But if it morphs lower and breaks the invalidation - well, we have seen that before. If a triangle does form properly - just remember that triangles often precede the last motive wave in the direction of travel. The goal may be to get the NQ to catch up with the ES and make a new high, but that is not for certain.
Have an excellent start to the day.
TraderJoe
ES 30-min: prior Ⓒ wave just broke a bit lower. Things getting flakier but not fatal. TJ.
ReplyDeleteGOLD (GC) futures 4-hr: subsequent to extending to 2,773 in the afterhours, GOLD is now trading at ~2,740, below the 2,760 level in an impulsive looking down wave. Look for a wave that does not go over the high.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/a3p0yKzU/
TJ
ES 30-min: there is 5,848; triangle is broken leaving a down count.
ReplyDeleteUglier than sin, but the measurements make it the dreaded expanding diagonal.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/YPwnoQLM/
TJ
ES 30-min: here's a reminder of the intraday wave-counting-screen with updated daily pivots and local fractals.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/J4hKSgBr/
Price is approaching S2 and has one close below the lower band for a 4 - 6% likelihood of the next close being outside the lower band. Not impossible: just lower odds.
TJ
ES 30-min: has a close inside the lower band and resetting the number of consecutive closes.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/EzeQiCXY/
TJ
SPY 1-hr: now below prior low.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/52hxjxDt/
TJ
ES daily - tag of 18-SMA at 5,833 - 35, and 'currently' lost daily embedded stochastic.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/fU3iAAx5/
TJ
SPY 1-hr: there is now clear overlap at orange L#1. This is significant. Yet, overlap at brown L#2 could be even more meaningful as it would rule out (or rule in) a larger fourth degree wave.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/9JZb0DKn/
TJ
ES 30-min: three closes below the lower band drops the odds to 2 - 4% of another close outside the lower band. Not impossible, but lower odds. TJ.
ReplyDeleteNow four closes below the lower band, dropping the odds to 1 - 3% of the next close being outside the lower band. Not impossible, just lower odds. TJ.
DeleteES now has overlap on L#2 at 5,808 creating a big headache for the bulls. SPY does not have this overlap, yet. TJ.
DeleteES 30-min: five closes below the band dropping the odds to 0 - 2% of the next close below the lower band. TJ.
DeleteFailure wave yesterday?
ReplyDeleteNo. Just a standard expanding diagonal.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/lkFCZKad/
TJ
Wow! That 5th wave smash of the trend-line was commodity like in its vigor. Now the deep retrace...?
DeleteMaybe finally the end of the djia expanding diagonal?
ReplyDeleteYes, maybe, so! TJ.
DeleteES trying to hold trend line, we shall see. THX for your work.
Deleteim getting the sense that the most bullish case ultimatey depends on the "problem child" being A of a failed 2nd wave. otherwise the bull best case scenario is we are in or will be in at least a month 4th wave at best. is this accurate?
ReplyDeleteNot sure about "problem child" being A, but more locally, the bullish case would likely call for an alternating fourth wave, as below. I've outlined a flat, but you can move ③ to the top and also posit a triangle to take more time.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/G3Grsxe2/
The idea would be to get the daily MACD down near the zero line for a bounce.
TJ
yes thanks good work
DeleteAnother option we had a B as previous top and then C as expanded diagonal. Just one possibility to keep in mind
ReplyDeleteIt did come back into the wave it would be correcting. Im thinking the market will leave many options open on election eve.
DeleteAB and now C into close from here on spy would be the ideal bull trap
ReplyDeleteI believe the correction was overnight and this morning and we had start of the next impulse on spx during this afternoon. Bear pennant on aapl is hinting at it.
DeleteJapan might do a C up. Bears in control I think, top in place.
ReplyDeleteAmazing that Tesla is holding this market up.
ReplyDeletehavent closed below 18 day MA ince 9/12. havent had a down month in 6 months, 5 straight up quarters. conditions may be ripe for a top. no indication yet. we are 1.22% of making the 48th ATH of year. maybe bears can close this from here down another 25bps and get belwo the 18 day SMA. if they are in controll that shold be easy.
ReplyDeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ