IF some things are carved in stone, this wave count is carved in butter. Although a look at the current lower trend line is amazingly pinpoint, and although today's close amazes with its again close approach on or near the 18-day SMA, the wave count itself has a couple of options that we are suggesting. The ES December futures lead-month contract daily chart is below.
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| ESZ2024 Futures - Daily - Wedge |
The completion count is shown in magenta. It is possible with about 40% odds. The other option shown is a triangle. The one shown in green would be a contracting triangle - on a daily basis to possibly take price into the election near the high. The invalidation for the contracting triangle is shown. But that just brings to mind the other possibilities that include an expanding triangle or a diagonal. They make up the other 60%.
Once again, there is nothing indicated here but the need for calm, patience and flexibility as the potential topping patterns play out and/or the market makes a downward wave long enough to be more unequivocal in its interpretation.
Until then have an excellent start to the evening and the weekend.
TraderJoe
Will Netanyahu's determination to drag the US into a wider M.E. conflict disturb market quietude? Shots fired!!
ReplyDeleteThe Dow is more telling with nested 1,2's I believe. The UST30 year if it does not reverse is trouble.
ReplyDeleteThe Eight-Fold-Path-Method with 112 bars on the YM1! hourly disagrees with your assessment of nested 1,2's. It only shows one wave in a channel with a wave 4 that is 38 - 50% of its wave 3. It shows a clear iii of 3 on the low point of the EWO. And it shows a divergence for wave v of 3.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/nQwKJ3cf/
Further, it shown the EMA-34 with all numbered waves on opposites for good form and balance.
Why people refuse to use this method is a complete mystery to me. But I'm getting very, very tired of it and people not at least checking it before they make comments.
It is getting SO tiring that I am thinking of stopping to post intraday until people start to use the method and post their work.
TJ
Not all of us have charting tools designed for this exercise. My own charting software won't do the lower time frames you sometimes use for checking against the 8FPM. I can only do daily on up. And while I can eyeball it, I have no bar counting feature either, for a specified start and end point. Just all bars on the chart.
Delete@pedro .. yes, I had that problem at the beginning, too. But the minimum tool set can be found at Investing.com for FREE (just for registering), including intraday time frames, bar-counting, Fibonacci, indexes, stocks, commodities, etc. If you only have a daily chart (on up), you must not be using a futures broker or other broker that lets you trade with real-time quotes. Or the costs are minimal over at TradingView.com too. IF not, you might just be an investor not looking to trade on a regular basis. I get that, too. But it is no excuse if one 'offers' what they 'think' is a wave count, how did they arrive at it?
DeleteTJ
Here is an example of the Investing.com site with the tools for free. I do understand that if one is in a foreign country then some sites may be restricted. In that case, a broker package may be best.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/16zund
TJ
Another source of stock market funding to be aware of. This is a good article with thanks to Tom McClellan.
ReplyDeleteReverse Repos and Equity Market
TJ
Thanks Tj. Your holistic approach makes you a good teacher.
DeleteAlso as per last para"At the end of September 2024, RRPs at the NY Fed spiked up to $465.6 billion, but have now dropped to just $202.8 billion. That represents a whole lot of additional liquidity being made available to the financial markets, and it has not yet all had the chance to flow through into the stock market. " there is still a lot of room for markets to go up.
Watch the yen, looks like it's upward correction is over or close
ReplyDelete