Like the rest of technical analysis, time relationships (i.e. natural cycles) don't ever guarantee anything. But they are suggestive that this up run may be getting stretched. Sometimes they work +/- 1 or 2.
Have an excellent rest of the weekend,
TraderJoe
Great Song....
ReplyDeleteSee what's become of me
While I looked around for my possibilities
https://youtu.be/bnZdlhUDEJo?si=sXIeAMmYPR-Z27iI
The world is heating up, China 5950 to 5975 seems a reasonable topping point.
ReplyDeleteES 30-min: here's a reminder of the intraday wave-counting-screen with updated daily pivots and local fractals. The upward retrace is 78.6%, the downward retrace is 78.6% and into the S1 daily pivot. It 'might' be setting up for a triangle. A triangle would invalidate below the "prior low" shown.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/r5jDyBbZ/
TJ
ES 5-min: current count goes to a 'five-up' in futures, as below.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/U5QWNn5L/
Cash is substantially different. Opposite of the triangle if this breaks is some kind of 1,2 down (TBD).
TJ
/ZB(30 year treasuries) now has (have?) 5 waves down from the top
ReplyDeleteSPY (cash) 30-min: up count just busted with a lower daily low in SPY - not futures yet. This suggests equivalent labeling at the moment.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/XrmF25Nd/
TJ
base channel now broken lower ..
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Pvb2Z777/
TJ
ES 1-Hr: another correct assessment that the structure on the left was a diagonal, and that has been demonstrated by a lower daily low, so it is a leading diagonal in some manner.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/7sHu4zjk/
TJ
ES Daily - on the larger time scale, I would watch the low at 5,850 and to see if the daily slow stochastic becomes unembedded.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/zCIc7sg4/
TJ
ES 30-min: first close under the lower band. Odds about 4 - 6% of next close under the band. Not impossible, just lower odds. TJ.
ReplyDeleteES 30-min: close inside the band resets the number of consecutive closes. TJ.
DeleteMaybe somebody voiced this already but ES contracting diagonal since Oct. 13?
ReplyDeleteSPY 5-min: temporarily, I need to see how the wedge resolves. Is it a :5 or a :3? It is very, very ambiguous at the moment.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/8AySQQze/
TJ
There is a higher high. So, the wedge is likely a :5.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/ypfqnYBo/
TJ
Are u considering q triangle with previous high being a B of triangle
ReplyDeleteYes, so on the ES 2-hr chart, this can be a triangle if it forms properly.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/LNQkvgR6/
It would have meant that the expanding diagonal was just a c wave of the Ⓑ wave. But invalidation needs to be watched closely, too. Again, a triangle can't be called until all five waves are in the market, and the high is exceeded.
TJ
GOLD (GC) Futures - 4 Hr - as far as I can tell 2,760 would 'cap' a (b)-3 wave up, after an (a)-3 wave down at a confluence of two Fibs.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/lbxadubO/
(b)-3 = 1.50 x (a)-3, and c < 1.618 x a within (b)-3.
TJ
SPY 1-Hr: upward retrace of > 62% increases odds (but does not prove) possible triangle.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/k7o2tv9F/
TJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ