Today was a down day. After the last few days of horrible grind into the upper daily Bollinger Band on the ES futures contract - shown below - a down day when everyone is going gaga for higher prices is to be expected. We got one. So what? Was it interesting to see? Sure. But, if one is going to be "calm, patient, and flexible" on the way up, then the same must apply to down days. So, what are the measurements?
As of the cash close, the futures had only made an "equal low" to yesterday's bar. I don't want to be greedy but for a good down sequence to start we need to see much more than that. As you can see from the chart, the bar was not even a full-on "outside reversal candle". It didn't have a higher high, nor a lower low, yet (the futures are still trading as this is written).
Further, price is not below the 18-day SMA, "the-line-in-the-sand" and the daily slow stochastic is now embedded (using the classic calculation). The swing-line indicator still has a higher high. Now I realize the NQ and YM futures did have a lower daily low. Okey-Dokey. But they too are still above their respective 18-day SMAs also. The YM & NQ futures at least overlapped their prior high - making certain wave counts less possible. But the ES has not yet. Further, the advance-decline statistics were only about "dead-even" today - nowhere near kick-off or even impulsive territory. So, don't blame me if we are forming a larger triangle or diagonal (more about those, if needed, in later posts).
For now, if the 18-day SMAs are lost, and/or the slow stochastic loses the embedded status, then things might get a bit more definitive. Until then, as I suggested yesterday, new highs are getting much less dependable - merely because of where we are in the wave counts - and the overhead positions of the daily Bollinger Bands.
Have an excellent start to your evening,
TraderJoe
I must say I agree for the most part with your skepticism. I tend to dismiss price reversal signs summarily as for some time they have been nothing but "Sound & Fury": Shooting Stars. Island Reversals..Bearish Engulfing Candles. Apparent Exhaustion Gaps....all BULLISH. REALLY funny..The current price action just "might" be more noteworthy owing to 1. Structure of the larger patterns.2. Seasonal Market Fortunes. 3 Prevailing market optimism. We shall see!
ReplyDeleteSpy 30-min: on the open I'll just post this overlap warning.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/vsSZ0JGa/
TJ
Gold (GC) Futures - as far as I can tell, GOLD is showing it's fourth wave propensities by making three waves down and then a 90% up wave, so far. Can go further over the top if it wishes.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/2WpZOiMm/
TJ
SPY / ES 62% retrace, and stall. We'll have to see what (if anything) the gap geniuses have in store for us tomorrow. TJ.
ReplyDeleteIndeed!;
DeleteMust be close, my give a shit gauge empty warning light is on.
DeleteLol!
DeleteSPY 30-min: v, up, where v should be less than iii. Could go a tad higher.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/o4DrGKzK/
TJ
ES 30-min: here is the intraday wave-counting-screen with updated daily pivots and local fractals. The chart is behind the usual 10-min or so, but there is already overlap at 5,890 at Overlap L#1. The next overlap level would be about 5,876.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/ezWWyLcr/
TJ
This update shows the next overlap level L#2 - should price get down there. That would be a bit more serious if overlapped.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/seBYJENd/
TJ
ES 30-min: I followed this wave into the late night and saw one overlap that gives this wave a 70-75% chance of being an expanding ending diagonal. We had one verified diagonal to end wave ⑤ of iii. And if this, too, is an expanding diagonal it would be 'all' of the wave v - which puts it one degree higher.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/16v2cg
Since wave i was a non-overlapping impulse, then it is acceptable to have the entirety of wave v be a diagonal.
TJ
i see three optoins V, 3 of V, or 1 of V, equal likelihood from my perspective. if second or third scenario very rapid accelleratino occurs by end of hour ie 2pm EST (or sooner) on path to 5950 or 5990.
DeleteGOLD (GC) Futures - 4 hr - have crossed their old high, likely making an expanded Flat more possible. They are now just over. They could go a bit higher.
ReplyDeleteTJ
SPY 30-min high-to-open gap closed. Not the close-to-open, yet.
ReplyDeleteDo you thing this label reasonable ?
ReplyDeletei mean in this case, Wave 4.b higher than 1.618 of 4.a
https://www.tradingview.com/x/ddz8A4Ee/
https://www.tradingview.com/x/B5B2Ldq8/
SPY 30-min: I would put a wave-counting-stop (w.c. stop) at the noon high.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/pOzHft9p/
TJ
we now have 6 nested 1 2, all with increasing sloped 0-2 trendlines above each other.
ReplyDeleteAlso known as accelerating trendlines. Most end with fireworks once the steepest TL is broken. Most. Last time I saw it was 2018, the volmageddon affair.
DeleteES 15-min: 'and' after the big wedgie, up, there is now the 'possibility' of a (i), (ii), i, ii down. It's just a question of what holds or not.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/BQ0sRmJr/
Is going up, impossible? No. But then I would posit this was a larger 'fourth degree' wave, not another second wave. Three wave wedges are not supposed to be leading.
TJ.
National Debt now at 35.75 Trillion. 500B added in last 3 weeks. You could be right on your count, but it will spell disaster..
DeleteSPY 30-min: lower low and gap fill.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/NBgw070t/
TJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ